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Leo

Well-known member
astroturf. do you really think a group of people just spontaneously showed up and protested? wake up, sheeple!
 

droid

Well-known member
I was watching the livestream last night, organised by the Michigan Conservative Coalition and the Michigan Freedom Fund, a DeVos family-linked conservative group. But also, quite real.

 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
China's suddenly admitted to an extra 1,300 deaths according to Worldometer. I've read socmed posts about daily deliveries of thousands of urns to public crematoria in Wuhan.

And even here, reporting conventions mean the death toll is probably being badly underreported (ooh, that sounds a bit like a CONSPIRACY THEORY, doesn't it? :D)

I suppose it's doubtful we'll ever know the true extent of the pandemic.
 

yyaldrin

in je ogen waait de wind
China's suddenly admitted to an extra 1,300 deaths according to Worldometer. I've read socmed posts about daily deliveries of thousands of urns to public crematoria in Wuhan.

And even here, reporting conventions mean the death toll is probably being badly underreported (ooh, that sounds a bit like a CONSPIRACY THEORY, doesn't it? :D)

I suppose it's doubtful we'll ever know the true extent of the pandemic.

the best way i think is just to compare deaths per week for this year and other years.

like this graph for holland:

EVuI5QXWoAAXR6Q.jpg
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Exactly. Because that then includes deaths from other causes where people couldn't get treatment or avoided going to a hospital because of the pandemic.

There's been a general increase in mortality of nearly 60% in England and Wales compared to the average for the time of year.
 

droid

Well-known member
Excess deaths everywhere are not being counted. There's been about 200 deaths a day in NY outside of hospitals and nursing homes, about 10 times the normal amount. As far as i know belgium is the only country counting everything, which is why they have such a high fatality rate.

Also, some new research putting the from/with thing to bed. 86% of infected people who have died are dying from the virus.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I don't know what to think about the China figures and their revision.

1. I don't trust the Chinese government (I don't really trust many of them but China less than most)
2. Their actual explanation for the change does in itself sound quite plausible

I wouldn't be at all surprised if China have responded to all of the criticism that their numbers are way too low by raising them a bit so they don't look so implausible and much lower than others... but that they still don't reveal the whole scale of what has happened.
But didn't NY revise their figures the other day to a much higher number and that was hardly reported?
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Apparently the UK govt is only counting people dying from (or with) the virus in hospitals. So that excludes:

* those dying in hospitals who weren't diagnosed while alive - and I can't imagine a lot of resources are being put into extensive post-mortems for those who were old and/or sick anyway, in the current climate;

* those dying at home or in hospices or care homes;

* the homeless and undocumented migrants, who are invisible for most kinds of statistics anyway;

...and then on top of all that is the general mortality spike due to overstretched NHS and self-imposed hospital avoidance.

I mean I guess there'll be a reduction in things like road accidents but I expect any 'saving' on that score will be outweighed many times over by the increased background mortality.
 

droid

Well-known member
Total bullshit as well. Those figures are from the ONS btw, detailed here:


How are you doing now? I hear youre back out on the streets.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
The arbitrariness of the rules is getting on my nerves. You can jog but you can't drive to where you wanna jog, which makes no sense in that it concentrates runners in urban places and prevents them finding empty spaces for running alone. Today it felt particularly bad cos we drove to the supermarket and a good running place is midway between there and our house, why can't we stop on the way and go running?
Also, when you go into the supermarket there is a guy on the door making sure you are separated by 2m as you enter and leave - but as soon as you go in it's a completely different story, everyone wandering round willy-nilly, lots of them with no masks or gloves or anything including the staff - by the veg bit a load of people had pulled off their clothes and started having a big fuckpile, what's the point of being strict at one point if all the advantages that brings are being completely wiped out a few metres away?
 

droid

Well-known member
This doesnt seem too crazy.

Lockdown can't be sustained more than 1-2 weeks after peak ICU occupancy passes, so it will be lifted in mid-May in the UK and possibly as early as May 1st in the USA. (I know the Eastern Coalition are kicking back against Trump's deranged demand for an early restart: I expect other states may also join in if their estimates of the long-term damage track reality.)

Trump is shooting for May 1st because he's been told the economy will take 6 months to recover, minimum, and he's shooting for the November election deadline. This is laughably optimistic, even if the pandemic had burned out by May 1st: we're in Greatest Depression territory already, the hospitality sector has crashed 75%, airlines have crashed 90%, etcetera. It's not going to be back to normal by November, even if the Fairy Godmother shows up and banishes the horrid virus with a wave of her wand. Period.

So. The immediate peak hospital occupancy will pass, lockdown will be lifted sector by sector (or all at once) and region by region ... and the 50% of COVID19 cases who are asymptomatic will go back to work, mingling with the uninfected.

1-4 weeks later there will be a secondary surge in infections and it'll follow the same exponential growth as the first spike in Feb/March. And lockdown will resume, probably in mid-June. (It may be mitigated by summer heat, in which case things will look good for a month or two longer, but I'm not holding my breath: even if heat prevents spread, the prevalence of air conditioning in public spaces in the US provides a transmission-friendly environment.)

If the howls of rage at the first lockdown are deafening, the second lockdown will be worse: think of toddlers being sent back to bed with no supper. And that's the lucky work-from-home class: the working poor—with no savings and jobs they need to be physically present for—are going to be increasingly angry and fractious at their exposure. Expect civil disobedience and possibly summer riots unless central banks throw money at the grassroots -- and not $1200 for 10 weeks: more like $1200 per week.

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I love the way that people who say they're in a high-risk category feel happy speaking for everyone like that. Anyway, they're in a high-risk category in terms of their health and age maybe, but probably they've got jobs and financial means that will enable them to minimise mixing with the infected hoi-polloi so they're not high-risk in that sense. And they're being dishonest when they make it sound as though they are willing to die for the economy, it's more that they are happy for people like them - in one respect - to die for the economy and for them.
In Portugal the lock-down was renewed yesterday for the next two weeks as expected, however they did say that they hope that this will be the last time. I'm torn by the way that that sounds hopeful, but really it seems too soon, Portugal has done well so far in that they have fewer total deaths than the UK has every day, I hope they don't fuck it up by being too relaxed when they're almost there.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
And obviously you don't shut down the country cos of swimming pool deaths cos they are not contagious, I mean the argument is so facile it doesn't really need to be addressed at all.
This is an interesting development I guess... it will "probably" be ok.

On Monday morning, Chile will become the first country to issue ‘immunity cards’ to those who have recovered from Covid-19, exempting holders from quarantines so that they can return to work.
Chile’s health minister announced that some of the cards would be issued according to the presence of antibodies to the virus, despite difficulties in producing reliable tests.
He promised “very high probability” that card holders would be non-contagious.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
And if you're shit at swimming then you can avoid swimming pools, but if you've got asthma then advice to "avoid people" is a bit more of a challenge.
 

john eden

male pale and stale
Total bullshit as well. Those figures are from the ONS btw, detailed here:

How are you doing now? I hear youre back out on the streets.

Alright. Back at work (from home) since Tuesday. Just get really tired after my govt-sanctioned hour of walk.
 
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