Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[droid]

 

[droid]

Hard to capture briefly but reasonable amount of data to show that graduating during a recession, for example, is ruinous for long term prospects. Could well affect life expectancy infact.

I am in the gym, but it's not about inconvenience and I think we all know that.

Even if that were true, the recession is coming no matter what any individual government does. Spreading disease will only make it worse.

 

[comelately]

There are degrees of recession.

But let's say, hypothetically, the second October wave comes for the countries who tried to put out the fire. Are you going to radically restructure society for this on a perma basis? I don't think so.

You can get killed walking your doggie.

 

[droid]

Are you still pushing the 'herd immunity' nonsense?

It WILL NOT WORK. Firstly, we think the virus can reinfect. Secondly, the lack of containment may result in up to 80% of the population getting infected. Thirdly, mortality rate depends hugely on a functioning health service. 80% infection rate in the UK will result in anywhere between 500,000 to 2 million deaths. The NHS will collapse. there will be bodies on the streets, and during and after all that people may get reinfected, compounding the cycle and taking out more younger and healthier people. The economy will be the least of anyone's worries

This is the kind of thing that destroys societies.

 

[comelately]

I am happy to discuss that, but you do seem very keen to talk around the central underlying point that I am making i.e. that there is likely an utilitarian calculus to be made here and all sorts of difficult choices.

 

[john eden]

Death may also prove to be ruinous for long term health prospects.

The underlying problem here is that the increasingly dysfunctional capitalist economy is death for the planet and the people who live on it.

This is a great piece by some comrades in China:
http://chuangcn.org/2020/02/social-contagion/

 

[Leo]

he's not a capitalist pig, just helping redistribute desired goods to areas where they're most needed...

He Has 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them

Chris Anderson, an Amazon seller in central Pennsylvania, said he and a friend had driven around Ohio, buying about 10,000 masks from stores. He used coupons to buy packs of 10 for around $15 each and resold them for $40 to $50. After Amazon’s cut and other costs, he estimates, he made a $25,000 profit.

Mr. Anderson is now holding 500 packs of antibacterial wipes after Amazon blocked him from selling them for $19 each, up from $16 weeks earlier. He bought the packs for $3 each.

Eric, a truck driver from Ohio who spoke on the condition that his surname not be published because he feared Amazon would retaliate, said he had also collected about 10,000 masks at stores. He bought each 10-pack for about $20 and sold most for roughly $80 each, though some he priced at $125.

“Even at $125 a box, they were selling almost instantly,” he said. “It was mind-blowing as far as what you could charge.” He estimates he made $35,000 to $40,000 in profit.

Now he has 1,000 more masks on order, but he’s not sure what to do with them. He said Amazon had been vague about what constituted price gouging, scaring away sellers who don’t want to risk losing their ability to sell on its site.

hmm...just a matter of time before neighbors storm his castle.

 

[comelately]

Death may also prove to be ruinous for long term health prospects.

Yes, but a lot of the dead (obviously yes not all of them and yes a capacity problem is going to exacerbate that significantly) didn't have good long term health prospects to begin with.

Btw my dad died of an infection in hospital and I never got to say goodbye. So if ppl think I am not mindful of the human element they are wrong.

 

[comelately]

 

[Mr. Tea]

Something missing from the conversation us that (AFAIK) the 'herd immunity' position from the CMO is not "OK so let's let most people get infected". It's "Most people are going to get infected whatever we do, sooner or later, because locking down the country only slows the rate of infection and normal life will eventually have to resume so we don't all starve."

The counterargument is that slowing the rate of infection places a smaller strain on health services.

I'm not qualified to say one is right and the other is wrong, but I can see that the first position is not identical to just allowing an epidemic to happen that would otherwise be prevented.

 

[baboon2004]

The 'most people will get infected whatever we do' is unjustified fatalism imo. And leading to a frankly crazy solution. What if it is containable, at least until a vaccine arrives (any figures on how much £ is being pumped into this?)?

Clearly in China deaths seem to be flatlining (excuse the phrasing) at just over 3,000. Sure, they have to reopen and there may/will be a second wave, but there's no proof whatsoever afaik that the herd immunity thing is anything but a buzzword. Ultimate aim is a vaccine surely, not this grim reaper pseudoscience?

 

[comelately]

Something to be aware of is internal competition between strains. Trying but failing to put out the fire is more likely, as I understand it, to give rise to even worse mutated strains.

I am not saying this is anything other than one variable among many, but it is one ppl are not necessarily considering and iirc Vallance brought it up.

 

[john eden]

Mutual aid groups being set up across the UK
https://freedomnews.org.uk/covid-19-uk-mutual-aid-groups-a-list/

 

[version]

Apparently several people have recovered then either relapsed or contracted it again. If it's the latter then I dunno how good the 'herd immunity' approach will be, plus it might be impossible to come up with a vaccine.

 

[version]

The thing that's getting to me atm is the projected duration. We're looking at months and months of this and millions of people are already wound pretty tight what with all that's happened since 2016. I'm not a particularly sociable person but I'm already starting to feel a little stir crazy.

 

[baboon2004]

Is anyone here in the UKrestricting their movements, given what has happened in other countries (eg France is closing most social meeting places from midnight tonught)? I feel very ambivalent, because on the one hand it seems v sensible to do so, but otoh this government wants everyone to get the virus, then w/o extreme measures it's gonna be hard to avoid it.

And exactly what Version said. Avoiding social engagements for a month I can do in, the context of a society-wide effort to limit the spread, but it's the idea of this lasting months and months that throws me into the feeling of why even bother to avoid getting it, if there is no policy at all of containment...

 

[comelately]

Apparently several people have recovered then either relapsed or contracted it again. If it's the latter then I dunno how good the 'herd immunity' approach will be, plus it might be impossible to come up with a vaccine.

I'm too busy to search for a link right now, but yeah apparently it lies dormant.

Re: herd immunity, it's not pretty to say the least but I don't really agree that it's pseudoscience. The mutation issue is a problem.

There's an argument that two sets of countries following different strategies will render eachother's unsuccessful - of course, one could certainly argue that's a reason why we should align with the WHO but well.....we know what we voted for didn't we?

 

[version]

Behavioural scientists form new front in battle against coronavirus

As epidemiologists work round the clock to calculate the mortality rate of Covid-19, its ease of transmission and other vital statistics, a different group of experts are interrogating the role that human psychology could play in the unfolding pandemic.

The government’s new measures, its experts said, took into account these behavioural factors, such as the potential for “fatigue” – the idea that public adherence to quarantines might wane over time.

The implied logic was that asking less of the public this week could buy greater compliance down the line, when it is most crucial. Factors such as the potential for loneliness and stress in isolation were also considered.

Prof Susan Michie, director of the Centre for Behaviour Change at University College London and a member of the government’s advisory group, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behavioural Science, said these assumptions are in part based on observations of human behaviour during past pandemics.

The body of research included a rapid review published in the Lancet last month on the psychological impact of quarantine, which found that self-isolation can lead to post-traumatic stress, anxiety, depression and public anger.

Indefinite quarantines with no well-defined end point – such as those imposed in Wuhan – risk having the most negative side-effects, the paper suggested, recommending that quarantines be restricted to the shortest time period possible and that the public be given a clear rationale for such measures.

Other influential research includes a paper by the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin on how to harness behavioural science to fight the coronavirus. It found that extending isolation periods beyond initial suggestions risked demoralising people and increasing noncompliance. “Thus clarity and certainty about timelines are both important,” the paper concluded.

 

[sufi]

Is anyone here in the UKrestricting their movements,

Yes, absolutely.
If you are not at this point, you are joining Boris in throwing the vulnerable under the bus, and for no clear reason.
The government have lost the plot so we need to look after each other now, and not spread this thing around if we can possibly avoid it.

I don't accept that we should wait to act becuse of some ill-defined future situation about fatigue, or some bullshit about the herd. That is nasty white exceptionalism mixed with denial and is not sustainable - the policy will be dropped, with or without the government.

Because you can transmit before you have symptoms Everybody should be behaving as if they have it already. That imo is the only responsible & ethical position to take.

I have close family members in isolation on doctor's orders, and a friend whose whole family have already been in isolation for 2 weeks already since travelling from Italy, and have been waiting for test results over a week now

 

[kumar]

That does make the mutual aid efforts seem quite complicated then, there’s one in my area but I’ll be very wary of going near elderly people for the time being