Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[mixed_biscuits]

Nothing needs to be done: most regions have herd immunity now (London certainly has); just have to play along with the pantomime for a few months.

 

[IdleRich]

Nothing needs to be done: most regions have herd immunity now (London certainly has); just have to play along with the pantomime for a few months.

I meant what is to be done with society in general in this interim stage, I (on that occasion) wasn't talking about the pandemic.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

People have to get their information from reliable sources, ask more questions and groupthink must fall out of fashion.

 

[luka]

That looks like a bit from the American Office or something.

i was going to say. that is heavily influenced by that form of television. it may even share writers with some of those shows.

 

[version]

i was going to say. that is heavily influenced by that form of television. it may even share writers with some of those shows.

The interviewer's playing a character. It's almost like one of Sacha Baron Cohen's shows.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Nothing needs to be done: most regions have herd immunity now (London certainly has); just have to play along with the pantomime for a few months.

Not sure how you've worked that out. UK official cases total stands at just over 300,000. Let's be very generous and assume only half of all cases have been diagnosed - probably fair, given our pathetic testing rate - so the true number of cases is 600,000, and we'll also ignore the ~46,000 people who've carked it.

Now even if all those cases had occurred in London, and only in London, well the London metro area has a population of over 9,000,000. So you're looking at an infection rate of under 7%. And in reality it's obviously a small fraction of that, because cases have occurred all over the country.

Estimates on the percentage of the population you need to have been infected to achieve herd immunity depend on which expert you listen to or which study you read, but from a cursory search, they start at 70%.

 

[Mr. Tea]

(did I mention Sweden is back to normal now? )

And all at the cost of having only the sixth-worst death rate of any major country in the world!

 

[chava]

And all at the cost of having only the sixth-worst death rate of any major country in the world!

Let's see their excess mortality next year compared to others

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Not sure how you've worked that out.

Just by the look of the death rate graph - it has the same shape as Sweden's and we know they are on the brink of herd immunity now as that can be the only reason that their cases and deaths are petering out. Herd immunity does not require 70%, by observation. Also, from Independent Sage: https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/

London achieved herd immunity within the available interacting subpopulation before the end of lockdown and may have achieved it overall (as London hit its peak before lockdown could have had an effect).

At least 15,000,000 have been infected in the UK - 45,000 / 3 * 1000 (using IFR of 0.3%)

 

[mixed_biscuits]

And all at the cost of having only the sixth-worst death rate of any major country in the world!

Sweden's absolute death rate is less than ours, ours is still rising, our government has no idea what's going on because of the uncertain lockdown effect, our economy is screwed, healthcare is screwed - their outcome is a triumph compared to ours. (and if they had sorted out their care home strategy, they would be a more than a mile ahead - that's where a huge proportion of the deaths happen, isolated from the effects of a universal lockdown - 45% of NHS staff caught the thing despite lockdown!).

 

[WashYourHands]

Nothing needs to be done: most regions have herd immunity now (London certainly has); just have to play along with the pantomime for a few months.

Have to check you here sir. Herd immunity doesn’t factor in the 2nd aspect of the R-rate, ie the rate of mutation. Antibodies drop off after 5-6 weeks. Every infection alters the virus ever so slightly due to the nature of all coronaviruses, ie flu and the common cold. If you want to debate that I can get a 30year NHS respiratory ICU veteran to register and start talking facts, rather than the conjecture of unprovable theories you‘re espousing.

The Talker talks, the Prover proves.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Granted, but at the moment, it looks like it's not mutating enough to circumvent acquired or pre-existing immunity and it looks like these immunities are not fading (I know many people who have had Covid but none who have had it twice).

If either of the above two things change then we either get used to the change in risk (negligible to most of the population), begin to treat it more effectively (hello HCQ, as used in most of the rest of the world now) or try to eradicate it/vaccinate against it.

 

[WashYourHands]

So the “strain” evidence is wrong/weak?

I’d wait 12 months before going on record with anything yet mate. A lot can ( and probably will) happen.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

There are incontrovertibly strains but it looks like there is cross-immunity between them (just as there appears to be some common cold/coronavirus cross-immunity).

It's an odds game, that's for sure.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Sweden, with their herd immunity, are in a strong position anyway: there is precious little virus in the community available to morph into an importantly different strain, their population has as much acquired immune response as possible and they have a healthy infrastructure better able to implement a national-isolation strategy in the much more likely event that a troublesome strain appears beyond its borders.

 

[IdleRich]

(hello HCQ, as used in most of the rest of the world now)

Is it?

 

[mixed_biscuits]

 

[IdleRich]

Is that a correlation proves causation chart?
Anyway, I wasn't asking if it works (we already know it doesn't), I was asking if it's used... and I suppose, more specifically, to what extent it's used (in that if some maniac in the UK injects it into his friends that doesn't mean that the UK can be said to be using it).

 

[IdleRich]

Seems like UK is suffering from Schrodinger's Deaths - they are FROM C19 when you need to prove that HCQ works but they are OF C19 when you need to argue that the UK deathrate is exaggerated.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

If we already know it doesn't work, why are so many countries using it?