Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[Mr. Tea]

And you're still not getting the point about herd immunity. It's not some arbitrary number; it does vary from disease to disease but it does have to be *most* people.

"Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection." (Johns Hopkins)

"Researchers think that the R0 for COVID-19 is between 2 and 3. This means that one person can infect two to three other people. It also means 50% to 67% of the population would need to be resistant before herd immunity kicks in and the infection rates start to go down." (WebMD - slightly lower estimate, but it's still at least half, and it's still an order of magnitude that England's current rate of 6.3%)

"Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic." (Mayo Clinic - which also points out that relying on natural herd immunity might be a really bad idea for this disease, since "it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.")

 

[Mr. Tea]

You can never be too safe when it comes to vaccine testing: stay safe, refuse vaccines.

Come on, surely you're just trolling at this point.

 

[luka]

Come on, surely you're just trolling at this point.

I think most people here intend to refuse any purported vaccine don't they?

 

[Leo]

no

 

[Mr. Tea]

shall i start an anti vax thread in anticipation of phase 2?

My dear fellow, nobody here is better qualified than you are to start an anti-vaxx thread, so go for it!

 

[IdleRich]

umm...my attempts at humor were intended to highlight the obvious fact that there is little trust in the Russian vaccine because it's been rushed through, with inadequate testing and clinical trials. that's very different from being anti-vax.

Obviously. It's a cheap shot to suggest otherwise.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

And you're still not getting the point about herd immunity. It's not some arbitrary number; it does vary from disease to disease but it does have to be *most* people.

I said, "Herd immunity clearly doesn't require 70% having antibodies (as otherwise Sweden's cases and deaths wouldn't have dwindled away) and antibody tests don't capture everyone who is immune. "....that's because having T-cells also appears to confer immunity, there's cross-immunity from some other viruses and many appear already to be immune.

Read this: https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/

 

[IdleRich]

You can never be too safe when it comes to vaccine testing: stay safe, refuse vaccines.

It's not our job to judge the scientists. Otherwise, that would make *us* scientists - and who would judge us...even more scientists? #trustovertest

How long would we have to wait to be sure that there aren't long-term side effects...to be 100% sure, until death...but would we need the vaccine if already dead? I'm not so sure.

Russian medical trials are quicker because they fit the schedules to their shorter life expectancies.

But Putin has announced that Russia now have much higher life expectancy - that's why the pension age has been raised.
And... what, the rest of this is gibberish.

 

[IdleRich]

Presumably a joke but it doesn't make enough sense to be that.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

A rushed Western vaccine will be deemed acceptable whereas a rushed Russian vaccine is regarded as a disaster waiting to happen.

It's this sort of othering that got us into trouble in the first place when we swallowed the nightmarish scenes around the weird Chinese virus.

PS. Russia has been using HcQ too - ugh, how odd

 

[IdleRich]

Russia has huge numbers of cases and doctors falling out of windows cos they disagree with the death stats, I don't think it's anti-Russian bias to say that they might not be the best country to emulate.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Whereas Oxford incompetently administered overlarge hcq doses in the RECOVERY trial:http://www.francesoir.fr/oxford-recovery-hospital-test-overdose-hard-pills-swallow

Not the best idea to take medicine from docs who can't distinguish between one lump or two.

 

[WashYourHands]

Mr @mixed_biscuits , sir, do you think it possible that there’s a long way to go with this pandemic, the disease itself and our knowledge regarding it?

If so, sir, do you think it possible that you don’t have all the answers, pertaining to the notion that not all the questions around this current dilemma have yet to be raised or fully nailed down?

Are you, sir, Dominic Cummings in disguise?

I tend to mistrust people who have trouble conceding points, as if all the answers to all the questions are already self evident and fully formed. But that’s just a Scottish fool, sir, rambling on. Please excuse my folly.

 

[IdleRich]

Whereas Oxford incompetently administered overlarge hcq doses in the RECOVERY trial:http://www.francesoir.fr/oxford-recovery-hospital-test-overdose-hard-pills-swallow

Not the best idea to take medicine from docs who can't distinguish between one lump or two.

Some guy making a fuck up in one trial is hardly comparable to a regime which systematically lies about almost everything and has done for years.
I love Russia, I go there often and I have a lot of friends there but none of that has increased my willingness to believe anything they officially announce.

 

[Leo]

I wouldn't trust any Western vaccine that came out today either. and to anticipate the next question, yes I realize that no testing is ever 100% accurate and 100% final, and no vaccine can ever be determined to be 100% safe.

 

[HMGovt’s Glorious Return!]

I've decided we're at herd immunity now, due to the little-understood-by-midwits phenomenon of T-cell cross-resistance. Only 20% infection rate is required, then you're golden. We have perfectly adequate immune systems that evolved over millions of years, tempered by exposure to coronaviruses over the last 2 decades

It's over, lads. Masks, vaccines, lockdowns. None of it makes the least difference. It's all big pharma pushing for a trillion dollar vaccine payday now.

 

[Leo]

HMGovt has decided, all good.

 

[IdleRich]

Vaccine is coming....

0

 

[Mr. Tea]

Not the best idea to take medicine from docs who can't distinguish between one lump or two.

Until a couple of weeks ago, your every other post in this thread was "Oxford says this, Oxford says that", as if anything that anyone at Oxford said was correct, by definition. (My favourite was when you argued that the UK's true excess death toll over the spring was about 10,000 fewer than the number of people who've died from the virus and were diagnosed with it first.)

But your loyalty to the city of dreaming spires has waned since some of them started doing things you don't like, such as developing a safe and effective vaccine.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Have you actually read any of those Oxford CEBM links?

The CEBM person is a different person to the vaccine team.