I've started reading the Tetlock book. On the face of it, there does appear to be something to it - political forecasting has been almost entirely voodoo so why not try to do something better? But of course, how such forecasting is used is obviously crucial....hypotheses are themselves not formed particularly rationally. But I do like the idea of moving the conversation forward from pseudo-Austrian economics which is still a significant driver in right-wing thought (Javid is a Randian, as is Liz Truss).