IdleRich

IdleRich
Yeah agreed Leo.
As for extension, I think that the EU have been and will continue to be fairly reasonable and I think they probably will find a way to grant it if asked. It's Labour's ability to get anything through parliament and end the stand-off thag I doubt.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Depends on the results of a GE I guess.
Yeah of course. I was on my phone so wrote quickly. In full, what I'm thinking is that Corbyn and Labour are unlikely enough to present a vision of Brexit that is sufficiently compelling and different enough to win enough seats in a GE to get things going. Hence my preferred course of action would be another referendum with a straight choice between No Deal and No Brexit - that would at least give a result. If they could force an election, while it could deliver a result that is decisive, it's equally possible that there will no party with no majority, or there will be a party with a majority of seats but not enough agreement between those seats as to what is gonna happen with Brexit. In other words an election could take up a lot of time and there is on guarantee it will solve the problem.
 

droid

Well-known member
Conversely, a 2nd referendum could be disastrous either leading to a hard Brexit or another close result and the accompanying division, chaos and lack of resolution. Ideal solution in my mind is a GE, labour win and soft Brexit.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Conversely, a 2nd referendum could be disastrous either leading to a hard Brexit or another close result and the accompanying division, chaos and lack of resolution. Ideal solution in my mind is a GE, labour win and soft Brexit.
Well if with everything we know now the country in a referendum voted for a hard brexit then I would accept that it is what the people, the country etc want. At least the deadlock would have been broken. A close result could be divisive I guess but that's not really a major issue cos how much more divided can the country get? In terms of providing a "next move" I still think it's the best bet because one way or another it would provide an absolute majority and a decision. At the moment we have nothing that can provide a majority and we might drift into Hard Brexit by default. I would be a lot more unhappy about that occurrence (than I would it being voted for by plebiscite) cos we would be getting a result which is probably what no-one wants. I'd rather a decision of some sort was made.
Anyway, May has staved off the No Confidence vote with pretty much everyone voting as they said they would. I'm guessing that a GE is off the table for the near future so now where do we go?
 

droid

Well-known member
Let her fail again, because as far as I can tell, Labour supporting a second referendum may destroy the party, tank Corbyn and any hope of sane governance, and potentially offer the worst possible outcome for the UK including the hardest possible Brexit and the breakup of the union.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"Theresa May’s spokesman has told reporters that the Westminster leaders of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and Plaid Cymru have been invited to meet with the prime minister later this evening.
However, a no-deal Brexit will not be taken off the table, despite Corbyn’s insistence it was a prerequisite for talks, he added.
The spokesman said: “The prime minister has been very clear that the British public voted to leave the European Union.
“We want to leave with a deal but she is determined to deliver on the verdict of the British public and that is to leave the EU on March 29 this year.”
Asked by a reporter if he was “taking no-deal off the table in response to the opposition leader”, he replied: “I am not.”
Terrifying rigid determination to leave at whatever cost.
 

firefinga

Well-known member
Most plausible scenario is a hard brexit end of March. I mean, the UK won't get anything better than the proposed deal, which clearly got dismissed.

And sure, from a tactical point of view, THIS was the big chance for Corbyn to topple May. Chance, although by a narrow margin, is gone.
And there will be no meaningful "Plan B". Patience with the Brits within the EU seems to be running out.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
She will collapse eventually and article 50 will be extended.
I hope you are right on both counts!
I find her rigidity frightening. OK she can argue that the UK voted to leave and she must do that... but to say we MUST leave on the agreed date regardless of whether an extension might get us a better deal is completely insane. It's the same inflexibility she showed with the red lines that scuppered her negotiations from the start. What a twunt.
 

droid

Well-known member
Dw_K1q0WoAQwxiX.jpg
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
I agree with Rich that drifting into a no-deal Brexit by default is the most terrifying outcome of all, because it will really then have fucked Britain's future for no other reason that 'it must be done'. Basically, Brexit by parental trauma.

At least let's have a fucking vote for jumping off the cliff. If it tanks Corbyn at this point, well, so be it. We can't hold on wishing for something that's not going to happen, led by a man who we hoped was a political saviour but has turned out to be an intransigent arsehole without any kind of plan. And all indications are that he has little to no chance of winning a general election on his current platform, so let's not go there - could even lead to a Tory majority being returned at this point
(Edit: OK, well, having checked, polls do show a swing towards Labour over last few days, but I'll be fucked if I believe a poll ever again..on the other hand, Survation, the only company to call both 2015 and 2017 elections, give Labour a 3% lead. Cognitive dissonance.).

Article 50 looks like it's going to be extended in any case - 2nd referendum, GE, or just for more negotiating time.

If I never have to hear the word 'backstop' ever again, it will be way, way too soon.
 
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droid

Well-known member
I agree with Rich that drifting into a no-deal Brexit by default is the most terrifying outcome of all, because it will really then have fucked Britain's future for no other reason that 'it must be done'. Basically, Brexit by parental trauma.

At least let's have a fucking vote for jumping off the cliff. If it tanks Corbyn at this point, well, so be it. We can't hold on wishing for something that's not going to happen, led by a man who we hoped was a political saviour but has turned out to be an intransigent arsehole without any kind of plan. And all indications are that he has little to no chance of winning a general election on his current platform, so let's not go there - could even lead to a Tory majority being returned at this point.

Article 50 looks like it's going to be extended in any case - 2nd referendum, GE, or just for more negotiating time.

If I never have to hear the word 'backstop' ever again, it will be way, way too soon.

Labour have been consistently ahead in the polls by 2-3 points. They came back from -17 in the last election to close to parity.

There's about 20% of the UK vehemently opposed to Brexit, and about 20% with the opposite view. Tory rule is literally killing people and immiserating millions. This is something to consider when advising the opposition to throw away their chances of reform in order to solve a problem not of their making.
 

droid

Well-known member
So, imagine this scenario. Corbyn calls for 2nd referendum, which fails. As a result they also lose all leave support, lose the next GE, Tories get back under power with Gove or some other shitehawk as leader, implement a hard Brexit and have another 5 years to pursue their vision of a deregulated ultra neo-liberal rogue state.

But that's all good because at least a decision to jump of the cliff has been made.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Just edited my post there to reflect polling (not true that Labour has been ahead by 2-3 points consistently though; polling has been all over the place https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election ...but yes, Survation poll does offer hope)
Also, I think you're underestimating how many people who supported Corbyn, are now seriously disenchanted with him.

Couldn't agree more about Tory rule, obviously. But it's Corbyn who has already steadily been throwing away the chances for reform, by alienating a lot of his core supporters.
 

droid

Well-known member
It's basic political arithmetic - why risk everything for a slight chance of success when even if you are successful you lose anyway?

IIRC the lowest polling dropped was about equal at 38% and has been about 2-3 points up on average. Depends on the poll I suppose.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
So, imagine this scenario. Corbyn calls for 2nd referendum, which fails. As a result they also lose all leave support, lose the next GE, Tories get back under power with Gove or some other shitehawk as leader, implement a hard Brexit and have another 5 years to pursue their vision of a deregulated ultra neo-liberal rogue state.

But that's all good because at least a decision to jump of the cliff has been made.

No, it's not all good. But the chances of Remain winning in a 2nd referendum are bigger than those of Labour winning a GE right now, for a start. That Labour are only 2-3% ahead (and that only if you're very generous) with a government incapable of governing, is not grounds for any confidence whatsoever.

And how is this GE going to get called, anyways? No-confidence vote will never work*. More likely a Tory leadership contest when they get tired of May's inability to do anything, Gove gets in, don't need to negotiate anything with the EU any longer. And all that without actually asking whether the people who will suffer from a no deal, want it.

* Maybe I'm missing something here? I would like to be wrong, believe me.
 
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baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
IIRC the lowest polling dropped was about equal at 38% and has been about 2-3 points up on average. Depends on the poll I suppose.

That's wrong. Did you check the link? Some polls, Tories are up by 6 points. It is true that Labour polling has been better over past few days, but yet to see if that is a sustained improvement.
 
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droid

Well-known member
May falls, Gove or someone else comes in pushes a hard Brexit, 15 Tory remainers split and the govt loses a no confidence vote.

2-3 points ahead for a leader endlessly vilified in the media and hated by the establishment who has a proven ability to massively boost his numbers during election campaigns is not a bad position to be in. 2nd ref remain is a less certain proposition IMO.

The fact is that there is fuck all Corbyn can do anyway. The problem here is May and the Tories. If she would allow a customs union then this would be over tomorrow. The amount of shit Labour are getting for refusing to take a self-destructive stand in the flimsy hope of cleaning up a self-initiated Tory mess is incredible.
 
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