padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
remember when Trump was elected and we were all like haha he's gonna do something completely irrational that even his own yesmen find absurd and get us all killed?

and then despite all the many, many very terrible things that have occurred under his regime, it began to seem like maybe like we might avoid that?

well
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
holy shit is pretty much the only reaction rn

in true Trump fashion, killing Soleimani doesn't even make any kind of strategic or tactical (he was instantly replaced) sense. it is all risk and zero reward.

good thing he fired or goaded into resignation every single remotely competent senior foreign policy and military advisor, as well as basically eviscerating the State Dept
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
if there was a quicker and surer way to fuck up any of the very little good and goodwill in Iraq that has come from 17 years of U.S. involvement, short of nuking Baghdad, idk what it is
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
we'll see

normally I would say agree unreservedly, but he is so widely despised and so completely mistrusted that idk if this will play in a I cntraditional rally around the flag way beyond his (admittedly rock solid) base

I'll tell you who it's a godsend for: the also widely despised by its own people government of Iran

I can think of nothing better to get Iranians to rally around the mullahs etc than invoking Mossadegh and the entire history of foreign meddling

from beyond the grave Khomeini is smiling one of his exceedingly rare smiles
 

entertainment

Well-known member
holy shit is pretty much the only reaction rn

in true Trump fashion, killing Soleimani doesn't even make any kind of strategic or tactical (he was instantly replaced) sense. it is all risk and zero reward.

good thing he fired or goaded into resignation every single remotely competent senior foreign policy and military advisor, as well as basically eviscerating the State Dept


You'd have to dismiss all sources that say Soleimani was planning attacks on US tagets in the region through the Hezbollah militia. I don't know if that's true and neither do you. But Trump had plenty of chances to off him earlier, and the timing has to mean something.

This man played a major role in the killing of millions of Syrians and in the conflicts in Yemen and Iraq. We know that he wasn't about to stop wreaking havoc in the region. Saying that there's no reward to his death is really strange to me.
 

entertainment

Well-known member

Wasn't just that one airstrike, seems like they're going after more Iranian proxies in Iraq, apparently more important people killed.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Saying that there's no reward to his death is really strange to me.
killing one guy accomplishes absolutely nothing

Quds Force will go on without missing a beat. Soleimani's protege took over literally within hours of his death.

the U.S. could assassinate pretty much anyone at any time, given the will. we usually don't (openly) assassinate prominent figures, because it's usually a very stupid and counterproductive idea.

do you honestly believe this will stop Hezbollah, or any other Iranian regional proxy, from doing anything in anyway? News flash: it fucking won't. In fact, it will lock us into a cycle of much worse violence.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
the British almost certainly could have assassinated Gerry Adams at will, if they'd wanted to. they never did. it's a fucking stupid idea.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I'm certainly not shedding any tears for Soleimani. he was absolutely terrible, like the all the top IRGC brass and Iranian leadership generally.

but a whole slew of people directly responsible for a lot of terrible stuff in that region, and we're not going after them, so spare me the morality argument.

when are we going after Mohammed Bin Salman? that's right, we're fucking not.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
sorry, it's hard to countenance idiocy, when it's going to drag us into another fucking endless war

this 1) strengthens Iran's govt 2) forces Iraq inexorably toward Iran and away from the U.S. 3) does nothing to actually curtail Iran's regional power

against which we 1) spitefully killed a guy

cool

this isn't Israel quietly taking out Black September members after Munich

it's like if Iran had assassinated the director of the CIA. what the hell would it gain them, versus the cost it would incur?
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
nor does the argument "Trump could've done it before so he must've had a reason" hold up in a way

he petulantly does stupid shit without good reasons at the worst possible time CONSTANTLY

remember the time he yanked U.S. troops out of northern Syria so abruptly and at such a bad time that even Turkey was shocked?

he's driven out all competent advisors so the Sec State + Def are both hacks, he's let the State Dept wither on the vine, he has a bitter ongoing feud with the entire intelligence complex, etc

we'd already responded (disproportionately, but within the realm of expected disproportion) to the missile attack. this is just a thing he did, because.

Iran is 3x the size of Iraq, has a large and fanatical military, likely has the ability to seriously disrupt the global oil supply, etc

if you're going to go war, or take actions that could easily lead to war, you'd better have a goddamn good reason
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
I've refrained from posting much about this, largely just 'cos of life stuff, but also 'cos I don't want to contribute to the deluge of uninformed rubbish that is flooding the infosphere. The amount of people who didn't know who Solemani was 48 hours ago giving their hot takes is staggering.

I will say though that the online reaction in my feed splits into two distinct strands - Syrians and Iranians and people with deep contacts in the region are fucking rejoicing. A friend commented that the major escalation is going to be in Type 2 diabetes because of the amount of bakalava that being given out for free! There's a clear consciousness of what a counter-revolutionary force the Iranian regime has been across the whole region. Amazing (though not really) how absent this is from the other stream of discourse - I've unfollowed most of the tankie crap but still a lot of white people seem largely ignorant of fucking anything that's happening in the region in the last 15 years. The "WW3!!!" twitter hot takes are really awful because 1) this happens every time there's any conflict in the region and 2) what do you think the people in Iraq and most particularly Syria have been living through, for what seems like forever? It's already WW3 out there, has been for a long time.

Not including you in this Paidrag of course. Agree with your reading of Trump as a total idiot and the internal effect in Iran. It's worth noting though that the economic effect of the war in Syria is something that's fuelled protests recently, I doubt Iran can afford any major escalation even if they wanted it. I think the main effect will be fought out through proxy wars that are already in play and in a huge escalation of the already murderous repression in Iraq which is grim as fuck.

Controversial opinion time - man, am I glad Corbyn lost the election.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
remember the time he yanked U.S. troops out of northern Syria so abruptly and at such a bad time that even Turkey was shocked?

Yes, the killing in the wake of this is strategic nonsense. From pulling troops out to an action that's going to necessitate putting lots of troops back. Wtf?

... but don't know if agree with this:

killing one guy accomplishes absolutely nothing


He has huge totemic significance, an aura of invincibility now punctured. By all accounts he was a complete strategic genius as well so maybe hard to replace in that way.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Is the story that nobody really knew it was going to happen of any significance? Would the US normally give allies a heads up?

Apparently Mike Pompeo spoke to Dominic Raab on Friday but it's unknown if this included a specific warning about the attack.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
That run of experts followed by Rose McGowan's tweet really drives his point home.

I know, right? What a twat.

Funny how white liberal Americans who despise Trump and the GOP are unable to comprehend that brown people in faraway lands might not have an attitude of slavish devotion towards their own leaders and establishments.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
By all accounts he was a complete strategic genius as well so maybe hard to replace in that way.
This argument I do have some more time for

But, it still does nothing to dismantle any of the Iranian military-security apparatus

And any marginal strategic gain is offset and more by the provocation + geopolitical cost incurred
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I don't believe in puncturing the invincibility myth either

Martyrdom is highly extolled in Iran

Not by all individual Iranians, I'm sure

But as a religious-cultural force

Look no further than Mohammad Hossein Fahmideh, and the human wave attacks of the Iran-Iraq War

And I can think no better way to turn an odious figure into a beloved martyr than this
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I doubt Iran can afford any major escalation even if they wanted it.
This may well be true

Iran's internal issues are very serious, and not a new development

And I certainly agree the response will be 1) by proxy and 2) in asymmetric forms

But, it undeniably heightens the cycle of violence and increases the chances of a U.S.-Iran hot war
 
Top