View Poll Results: What will be the result of the upcoming GE?

Voters
20. You may not vote on this poll
  • Conservative majority

    6 30.00%
  • Conservative minority

    4 20.00%
  • Labour majority

    0 0%
  • Labour minority

    6 30.00%
  • The Lib Dems are a force for evil

    2 10.00%
  • Fuck the lot of em, we're going to to hell in a handcart

    6 30.00%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: Election incoming

  1. #691
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    Yeah, Labour's share of the vote was slightly better than in the last three elections. Of course it all depends on the distribution of votes. I suspect Labour will have done very well in inner London and the southern university towns where lots of young people are still very pro-Corbyn. Sadly it doesn't matter how big a margin each seat is won by.
    Quote Originally Posted by woops
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  2. #692
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    A decent piece by Tom Kibasi on all this...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rexit-election

  3. #693
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    And while I'm not really a fan of Simon Jenkins, this is entertainingly brutal...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...it-vote-labour

  4. #694
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    Quote Originally Posted by subvert47 View Post
    A decent piece by Tom Kibasi on all this...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rexit-election
    Some early analysis from Datapraxis suggests that nearly half of the Labour seat losses could be attributed to losing more remainers to other parties than the size of the Tory majority in leave seats. By attempting to triangulate, Labour convinced leavers it was for remain and remainers that it was for leave. The party looked cynical and opportunistic, as if it were playing games on Brexit to secure electoral advantage, rather than sticking to its principles or standing up for the national interest. The damage came from the journey rather than the destination of Labourís position.
    This is exactly it. I think Labour would have done much better last week (or may even have won outright in 2017, when Corbyn himself was briefly relatively popular) if, the moment the referendum result was announced, it had adopted a totally unambiguous position on Brexit and stuck with it, regardless of whether that position was pro or anti.

    It's probably a universal truth, although it seems more important now than ever, that a very simple message will always have more impact than a nuanced one. What the message actually says is of secondary importance.

    Edit:

    _20191217_103215.JPG

    Femi OTM as usual. 'Soft Brexit' was a stupid policy because absolutely nobody actually wants it. Remainers don't want it because it's unequivocally a worse deal than what we have. Leavers don't want it because it gives us *less* sovereignty, not more.

    Best Brexit strategy for Labour would have been a strong Remain position. Second best would have been a strong Leave position. Worst possible strategy was the one they ended up with.

    Whether even a Remain positition would have been enough to counter Corbyn's rock-bottom popularity, I don't know - probably not. But it would at least have seen off much of the vote leak to the Lib Dems and Greens, so the result wouldn't have been quite as bad as it was.
    Last edited by Mr. Tea; 17-12-2019 at 12:54 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by woops
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  5. #695
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    I'm glad someone is crunching the numbers on this one. The lack of a simple message, both on Brexit and on other issues, was a huge drawback to the campaign. Choose Remain and vapourise the Lib Dems to make it a two-way battle outside Scotland.

    They'd probably still have lost (?) but it would have been less crushing for sure.

    I am finding the relentless media focus solely on Labour's shortcomings annoying though, much as I think these exist (and messaging being the key one). The fact is, many people were very happy to align themselves with a grouping including the far right, if it suited their interests - that's not only Labour's problem. The much-repeated line that "Northern voters repeatedly rejected the BNP so they can't possibly be racist" totally misses the point. Many were willing to collude with a party dogwhistling (and often more) to the far right. Labour has a responsibility for many things, but it doesn't bear the whole load for that. Education? Decency? I don't know, but blaming the LP for it alone misses a far wider cultural change in society.

    Again goes back to Bannon's line about culture, and the culture in Britain is toxic at the moment.

    I guess it links in with the comment John made somewhere about the need for a social movement. If the left, or indeed liberals as well, leave it up to representative democracy, then they're not going to win, possibly ever at this rate given the upcoming gerrymandering
    Last edited by baboon2004; 17-12-2019 at 10:12 AM.

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  7. #696
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    As Bob From Brockley put it on Twitter: and, arguably, the failure/refusal of the Labour leadership to articulate a clear & heartfelt anti-Brexit conviction enabled the narrative of Remain as an elite project to keep its grip

    Good thread: https://twitter.com/bobfrombrockley/...77838935281670

    A lot of the criticism in circulation is I think backdated wish-fulfillment - if only Corbyn had given a shit about Remain and been putting this out there from the off. But people were in denial - I remember having a day long argument with two Corbyn fans who were trying to say he'd knocked himself out with the strength of his pro-Remain campaigning.
    Last edited by DannyL; 17-12-2019 at 10:04 AM.

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  10. #698
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    I'm intrigued to know, given the vote-age correlation, in how many families parents voted Tory Leave and children Labour/Lib Dem Remain. Awks.

  11. #699
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    Quote Originally Posted by HMGovt View Post
    Ha, I was just thinking "I bet there's a Downfall parody by now."
    Quote Originally Posted by woops
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  12. #700
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    Quote Originally Posted by baboon2004 View Post
    I'm intrigued to know, given the vote-age correlation, in how many families parents voted Tory Leave and children Labour/Lib Dem Remain. Awks.
    Some data on age splits here: https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1206890957221892096
    though not broken down by family.

    Same dude has just posted info on splits by income. Labour's biggest group those who earn £40-70k apparently.

  13. #701
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    Thanks Danny - it's so interesting that even the 40-49 bracket is pretty close in this 'landslide'.

    Parents voting for the effective ongoing cancellation of their children's futures..I can't even imagine the rage.

    Yeah, I saw the income split, interesting.

  14. #702
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  15. #703
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    Quote Originally Posted by subvert47 View Post
    And while I'm not really a fan of Simon Jenkins, this is entertainingly brutal...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...it-vote-labour
    Good idea.
    Being a Lib Dem voter is surely an indulgence. Being a Lib Dem politician even more so.

  16. #704
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    [QUOTE=Danny Labour's biggest group those who earn £40-70k apparently.[/QUOTE]

    I'm alright Jack pull up the ladder.

  17. #705
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    Saw this the other day and found them fairly interesting. Screenshot_20191220_205512.jpg

    I'm guessing there's going to be some bias there because when you lose any optimism you had is quickly discounted from what you remember your expectation really was. Still the high proportion of people surprised I wouldn't have expected, is this an example of how populism makes people feel like they are voting for the underdog ? Were these people not watching the news or aware of the forecasts? Could just be they were surprised by the size of the majority as opposed to the win, hard to tell without knowing how specifically the question was phrased.

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