Where to now?

I'm always interested in the psychology underlying politics. I think Wagner does a really good job of this and it has a lot of explanatory power to me.

EHRC report is also going to be a real body blow when it comes. And its negative findings will be because of the culture he describes.

subvert47 said:

Edit: Don't bother to say I'm just proving your point.

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Hope you are not mixing me up with Mr Tea? I don't normally try and argue by telling people they're wrong.

DannyL said:

I'm always interested in the psychology underlying politics. I think Wagner does a really good job of this and it has a lot of explanatory power to me.

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It has none to me. What he's pushing as "lack of empathy" can be explained far more succinctly and accurately as siege mentality. We've been under attack from everywhere this whole time; closing ranks is just a natural response to that. And what he clearly regards as his objectivity is just more worthless commentary from another complacent privileged arsehole.

DannyL said:

Hope you are not mixing me up with Mr Tea? I don't normally try and argue by telling people they're wrong.

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Okay

subvert47 said:

It has none to me. What he's pushing as "lack of empathy" can be explained far more succinctly and accurately as siege mentality.

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I did actually think that was the part missing from his analysis - being under that kinda sustained attack. But a lot of the responses seems acutely described to me. I do think some part of the feedback mechanism broke down or was shut down. But YMMV.

DannyL said:

Hope you are not mixing me up with Mr Tea? I don't normally try and argue by telling people they're wrong.

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You should give it a shot, Dan, usually works like a dream.

version said:

Alan Johnson's line about the working class always having disappointed people like Lansman was painful to watch.

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Alan Johnson demonstrating why it is actually Momentum who are the divisive ideological puritans by publicly attacking his own party, and in the process illustrating how not to alienate people. "Go back to yer stoodent politics and your left wing..." Sorry? What an Alan.

Two important points that seem to not be mentioned much at all:

(i) There were 410 'Leave' seats in the election, versus 240 'Remain' seats, from memory. Strange that this is so infrequently mentioned, given that it is possibly the single most important statistic of all. If Labour had won every single Tory Remain seat (71 I think?), they would still not have won. Johnson simply had more opportunities to overturn Labour in 'Brexit marginals' than vice versa, even if Labour had come out strongly as the Remain Party. Even when probably (are there any stats?) division of votes between Leave voters and Remain voters must be around 50-50 still.
And under a PR system (obvs doesn't make sense when including the SNP but still, gives a strong indication), the result would have been: Tories 283, Labour 209 Lib Dems 75, delivering a crushing Tory victory of -1 against the other two major parties.

(ii) Has any UK election ever been won without the support of the Sun and the Mail? Don't think so, but if someone has the info...

Favourite joke historically revisionist opinion: "the Labour party would have won if they'd had that David Miliband"...courtesy of Twitter, obvs. This will still be happening in 2039.
Second favourite - Idea that it was Labour policies that were wrong, despite the fact that every single poll suggests these policies are very popular among the electorate when asked outside the cauldron of party politics.

On a psychological level - apart from the mass psychology of fascism, then it seems obvious that if you offer people what will practically make their lives better, they do not always want it. Not if they are more attached to something else, something intangible and mythical like nationalism ... and 'Get Brexit Done' tapped into that. So I have lots of sympathy with the idea that Labour's messaging was curiously inept, given that it was pretty good in 2017. Clear soundbites win elections (along with the support of the Sun and Mail).

Also the scapegoating of marginalised and vulnerable groups happens due to people's inability to acknowledge and process their own vulnerability due to self-disgust (due to introjected cultural messages about having to be strong etc, especially in the socialisation of men) - vulnerability then gets projects onto another group, along possibly with other characteristics such as violent urges, undeserved privileges etc, and is savagely attacked. In this sense, I think Bannon's emphasis on cultural change preceding political/societal change is a correct analysis - cultural change to the right over the past 5/10 years is the backdrop to this kind of electoral result.

Favourite doorstop moment - hearing the immortal words "Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser" verbatim.

I didn't get to speak to too many people in all (canvassing in the one major Birmingham marginal, which was part of the overturned by the Tories depressingly), but there seemed a plurality and fragmenting of opinion....the only real common thread was how neglected and unlistened to people felt.

A lot of “traditional/former” Labour voters no longer narrate their lives through the language of class. They work in one man/small operations and see themselves as self-reliant and enterprising. The public sector metropolitan left, in my experience, simply do not get this.

If Labour had won every single Tory Remain seat (71 I think?), they would still not have won. Johnson simply had more opportunities to overturn Labour in 'Brexit marginals' than vice versa, even if Labour had come out strongly as the Remain Party. Even when probably (are there any stats?) division of votes between Leave voters and Remain voters must be around 50-50 still.

Conversely if they'd come out as pro-Brexit, there's a lot of seats they might've lost.

Good analysis here: :

Labour seats they would have lost if they'd backed Brexit this time: Putney, Canterbury, Portsmouth S, Bristol NW, Weaver Vale, Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cardiff N, Bedford, Coventry S, Warwick, Plymouth Sutton, Sheffield Hallam, Newport W, Reading E....Gower, Wirral W (20 seats)

Potentially: Lancaster, City of Durham, Croydon C, Chester (5)

And the Scottish seats they would have lost (and did lose): Coatbridge, East Lothian, Glasgow NE, Kirkcaldy, Midlothian, Rutherglen (6)...Plus the England/Wales marginals they'd have still lost: Kensington, Colne Valley, Crewe, Derby N, High Peak, Ipswich, Keighley, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stockton S, Stroud, Vale of Clwyd, Warrington S, Dudley N, Newcastle under Lyme, Barrow, Ashfield, Bishop Auckland...Bassetlaw, Grimsby, Stoke N, Penistone, Wakefield, Vale of Glamorgan, Wolverhampton SW, Dewsbury (26)

So that's 52-57 seats Labour would have lost (or not won in Putney's case) with a pro-Brexit policy and Corbyn at the helm - and that's assuming a limited c3% Con>Lab swing.

A bit damned if you do, damned if you don't maybe? And further taking up Remain/Leave as simple positions for electoral gain is the wrong way to thing about it. Do you genuinely believe Brexit will be good or bad for the country? Solve that first, achieve consensus in the party and build policy and campaigning on that basis. Easier said than done but I don't get the sense it was really attempted.

baboon2004 said:

Favourite doorstop moment - hearing the immortal words "Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser" verbatim.

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Kudos to you for campaigning btw.

I'd invite you or anyone who knows the history well, to tell me why the above is not true, with regard to the IRA. I saw the counter claim circulating on social media so I'm curious - what is the narrative about his support in your understanding?

This Remain/Leave argument rehearsed here in a bit more depth:


So: Labour' Brexit stance hurt them, but its unclear an alternative stance would have hurt them less. And Labour's choice of leader hurt them, but its hard to see how they could have changed him after the 2017 result refuted earlier critics.

Rob Ford is always good.

I'm watching this now.


I've fallen onto it with the excitement a 13 year old me would've had for a porn VHS. Perhaps I really should turn myself into the glue factory.

DannyL said:

A bit damned if you do, damned if you don't maybe?

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I think so - given the situation and the electoral system, I don't see how it was winnable, whatever position the LP took on Brexit.

DannyL said:

Kudos to you for campaigning btw.

I'd invite you or anyone who knows the history well, to tell me why the above is not true, with regard to the IRA. I saw the counter claim circulating on social media so I'm curious - what is the narrative about his support in your understanding?

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I'm definitely not coming at it with any great historical understanding.

But centrally, the idea that 'terrorism' consists of terror-based non-state violence, and that state violence based on terror somehow magically isn't 'terrorism' at all, makes the whole notion of a 'terrorist sympathiser' absurd from the off. Every politician pretty much fits that description, in that they meet, and sometimes support the goals of, groups (including states) that use terror to further their aims.

And of course, anyone who met Nelson Mandela was a terrorist sympathiser according to Thatcher (and the US govt for that matter)...

Also, although it's a minor point comparatively, the UK government was apparently meeting with IRA representatives all through the Troubles anyways.

Once upon a time, there was talk that Corbyn was going to hand over the reins to Lisa Nandy after a couple of years. Sounds strange now, but there it is.

We're almost certainly going to get some electoral boundary 'revisions', and probably some media 'reforms' and a bunch of other stuff which I think is going to make it very difficult for Labour to win a majority in any circumstances. And I don't think Labour are willing to do what it would take - and I'm not completely unsympathetic to that incidentally.

But I'm beginning to think half-measures are the curse of it.