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Thread: Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

  1. #1711
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    Looks as though Worldometer has now got US as number one for number of cases (just). Now that assumes that every country is being honest and accurate and so on but whatever the minutiae of the data it looks really worryingly bad in the US now. It's like watching titanic crashing into the ice berg in really slow motion... but that conjures up an image of a desperate crew spinning the wheel and trying to dodge it whereas in actual fact the captain is steering straight ahead telling everyone he's got it under control. Fucking frightening. Can no-one take over?

  2. #1712
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    Warren Buffet protege IdleRich appeared on CNBC today and threw down the gauntlet: "Sell everything short and buy it back in a few months if there is still a stock market." Markets reacted accordingly, enjoying their best three-day run since 1933.

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  4. #1713
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leo View Post
    what world are they living in?
    I assume part of the rally was Trump saying we'll back to work by Easter or whatever

    unlike that nonsense, there is some real value in knowing that the government will make a serious effort to mitigate economic fallout

    the stimulus package definitely isn't perfect, but it does indicate to investors that at least the govt is taking it seriously, suggests eventual return of normality

    I too assume the rally is temporary, but it's not as delusional as the crazy 15 minute jump during Trump's initial COVID press conference a few weeks ago was

  5. #1714
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    Warren Buffet protege IdleRich appeared on CNBC today and threw down the gauntlet: "Sell everything short and buy it back in a few months if there is still a stock market." Markets reacted accordingly, enjoying their best three-day run since 1933.
    Gimme a break, I can't change what's already happened!

    I assume part of the rally was Trump saying we'll back to work by Easter or whatever
    unlike that nonsense, there is some real value in knowing that the government will take a serious effort to mitigate economic fallout
    the stimulus package definitely isn't perfect, but it does indicate to investors that at least the govt is taking it seriously, suggests eventual return of normality
    I too assume the rally is temporary, but it's not as delusional as the crazy 15 minute jump during Trump's initial COVID press conference a few weeks ago was
    My thoughts precisely. I meant to say something about how the markets probably reacted to the Easter prediction. I see it as traders not so much believing that as believing that people will believe it and taking advantage of that if that makes sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leo View Post
    ...and, the S&P 500 has it's best three-day run since 1933.

    what world are they living in?
    Anyone know why it's called Standard & Poor's? Is it a pisstake? Super-duper & Rich's would seem to be more honest.
    Quote Originally Posted by woops
    i hate sigs

  8. #1716
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    A guy called Poor I think... like one of those funeral directors called Giggles or something.

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    and yeah, we just passed China as the leader for official recorded cases, but that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's remotely been paying attention

    none of this should be a surprise. I'm just some dude who reads articles and I've known it was a virtual certainty for weeks.

    I assume that anyone outside Trump's hardcore base stopped paying attention to him a long time ago.

    as I think I said in some other thread, people are adjusting to new realities.

    this will be very bad and there's a good chance hundreds of thousands of people will die in the next few months.

    but also: this isn't going to kill 50 million Americans. eventually there will be a vaccine. there will still be a stock market in 6 months.

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    Quote Originally Posted by droid View Post
    Yup, not content with the carnage they've already caused they're now deliberately massaging figures to downplay the extent of the problem under the spurious grounds of 'family consent'.
    I'm not sure that story wasn't conjured out of thin air tbh.



    As somebody who has done a bit of data reporting, sometimes you're doing things one way and then the project moves forward and you iterate the reporting structure a bit. It seems pretty normal to me.

  11. #1719
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    Yeah it's obvious that this was coming. The numbers are inevitable. But loads of people are still not grasping it - they're saying "But Obama's swine flu killed 12,000" as though this is completely done and dusted and can be compared like that. Lots of people saying it's "just a cold" or "That report from hospital staff isn't true" and so on and so on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IdleRich View Post
    traders not so much believing that as believing that people will believe it and taking advantage of that if that makes sense.
    of course. you know how the stock market works. it's about perceived rather than actual value. sometimes those coincide, sometimes they don't.

    it's also about perception of investors' perception of the market.

    I was going to mention that the VIX is also down a bit the last 3 days as well. it's still at 61 - which is fucking crazy - but that's down from a peak near 70.

    ironically, for his complete obsession w/the stock market + esp the Dow, Trump deserves a huge part of the blame for its collapse

    not only for America's extremely lethargic response to COVID, but for essentially misleading investors for weeks

    if he had just been up front there would have been initial panic/sell-off/losses but I strongly believe it wouldn't have been nearly as bad as the wild panic we got

    especially in something so based on perception, it's better to be up front about bad news and let people adjust their expectations accordingly

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    of course. you know how the stock market works. it's about perceived rather than actual value. sometimes those coincide, sometimes they don't.
    Well there's a philosophical debate about whether the perceived value is the actual value but I don't think either of us want to get into that.

    What I meant though is that I don't think your average trader hears Trump say "We are gonna be open by Easter" and thinks that it's true or a good thing. But they know they can make money out of those that do. Point is just cos the market seems to react positively to something doesn't somehow magically mean that (so-called) smart people think it's a good idea.

    if he had just been up front there would have been initial panic/sell-off/losses but I strongly believe it wouldn't have been nearly as bad as the wild panic we got especially in something so based on perception, it's better to be up front about bad news and let people adjust their expectations accordingly
    Completely agree. He's just utterly incapable of being honest in that way, it's against all his instincts.

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    one thing that actually helps, I think, is the legacy of 2007-9

    governments saw that there just isn't a choice, you have to both promise and deliver massive stimulus

    especially now. 2008 was a crisis of perception/expectations. economic capacity hadn't diminished, people were just afraid to spend.

    that will not be true this time. people who don't have essential jobs or can't work from home are literally physically barred from working.

    the economic dislocation will be severe and it will probably go on for a long time.

    the 2008 stimulus was about getting people to start spending again. this one is about ensuring people don't starve while they can't work.

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    Rich was literally one of the top traders in the financial capital of the world when he was in his twenties. Course he knows how it works! He was doing a maths degree at Oxford at 16 when the rest of us were failing GCSEs!

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    Quote Originally Posted by IdleRich View Post
    philosophical debate about whether the perceived value is the actual value but I don't think either of us want to get into that
    oh yeah, definitely not

    and also I agree 100%. that's what I meant by "perception of investors' perception of the market".

    I should've been more clear that I meant traders' (and large financial institutions') perception of less savvy investors perception

    tho again I do think there is some real, actual market value as well to the stimulus package in that it helps to begin establishing a floor

    not where the exact low point will be, but it raises it above the level of complete societal collapse, people starving en masse, etc

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    Quote Originally Posted by luka View Post
    Rich was literally one of the top traders in the financial capital of the world when he was in his twenties
    good thing we're on the same page, then

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