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Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Fucking hell the New Yorker is so twee every article starts like this

I woke up to a sweltering morning—the black kites outside my hotel room were circling upward, lifted by the warming currents of air—and I went to visit a shrine to the goddess Shitala

Hahaha, I thought you were just ad-libbing to take the piss and then I clicked the link and realised you'd literally quoted it.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Was that for hospital staff? How can they hear it if they're at the hospital?

I think the main purpose is to make the clappers feel better, as opposed to the clap-ees.

But a lot of people are desperate and miserable so I'm not going to be judgemental.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
It's not just hospital staff though is it? It's anyone doing a job deemed essential and who is potentially risking their safety. Presumably some of them will be in places where they can hear it.
 

Leo

Well-known member
...and, the S&P 500 has it's best three-day run since 1933.

what world are they living in?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Well there was the two trillion dollar stimulus which I supposed to make that happen. I assume it will be overwhelmed and the line will turn back down soon enough though.
 

luka

Well-known member
Well there was the two trillion dollar stimulus which I supposed to make that happen. I assume it will be overwhelmed and the line will turn back down soon enough though.

Reminder that Rich made enough as a trader to retire in his 20s and go and live on the Algarve with his cats
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Looks as though Worldometer has now got US as number one for number of cases (just). Now that assumes that every country is being honest and accurate and so on but whatever the minutiae of the data it looks really worryingly bad in the US now. It's like watching titanic crashing into the ice berg in really slow motion... but that conjures up an image of a desperate crew spinning the wheel and trying to dodge it whereas in actual fact the captain is steering straight ahead telling everyone he's got it under control. Fucking frightening. Can no-one take over?
 

Leo

Well-known member
Warren Buffet protege IdleRich appeared on CNBC today and threw down the gauntlet: "Sell everything short and buy it back in a few months if there is still a stock market." Markets reacted accordingly, enjoying their best three-day run since 1933.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
what world are they living in?
I assume part of the rally was Trump saying we'll back to work by Easter or whatever

unlike that nonsense, there is some real value in knowing that the government will make a serious effort to mitigate economic fallout

the stimulus package definitely isn't perfect, but it does indicate to investors that at least the govt is taking it seriously, suggests eventual return of normality

I too assume the rally is temporary, but it's not as delusional as the crazy 15 minute jump during Trump's initial COVID press conference a few weeks ago was
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Warren Buffet protege IdleRich appeared on CNBC today and threw down the gauntlet: "Sell everything short and buy it back in a few months if there is still a stock market." Markets reacted accordingly, enjoying their best three-day run since 1933.
Gimme a break, I can't change what's already happened!

I assume part of the rally was Trump saying we'll back to work by Easter or whatever
unlike that nonsense, there is some real value in knowing that the government will take a serious effort to mitigate economic fallout
the stimulus package definitely isn't perfect, but it does indicate to investors that at least the govt is taking it seriously, suggests eventual return of normality
I too assume the rally is temporary, but it's not as delusional as the crazy 15 minute jump during Trump's initial COVID press conference a few weeks ago was
My thoughts precisely. I meant to say something about how the markets probably reacted to the Easter prediction. I see it as traders not so much believing that as believing that people will believe it and taking advantage of that if that makes sense.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
...and, the S&P 500 has it's best three-day run since 1933.

what world are they living in?

Anyone know why it's called Standard & Poor's? Is it a pisstake? Super-duper & Rich's would seem to be more honest.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
and yeah, we just passed China as the leader for official recorded cases, but that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's remotely been paying attention

none of this should be a surprise. I'm just some dude who reads articles and I've known it was a virtual certainty for weeks.

I assume that anyone outside Trump's hardcore base stopped paying attention to him a long time ago.

as I think I said in some other thread, people are adjusting to new realities.

this will be very bad and there's a good chance hundreds of thousands of people will die in the next few months.

but also: this isn't going to kill 50 million Americans. eventually there will be a vaccine. there will still be a stock market in 6 months.
 

comelately

Wild Horses
Yup, not content with the carnage they've already caused they're now deliberately massaging figures to downplay the extent of the problem under the spurious grounds of 'family consent'.

I'm not sure that story wasn't conjured out of thin air tbh.



As somebody who has done a bit of data reporting, sometimes you're doing things one way and then the project moves forward and you iterate the reporting structure a bit. It seems pretty normal to me.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Yeah it's obvious that this was coming. The numbers are inevitable. But loads of people are still not grasping it - they're saying "But Obama's swine flu killed 12,000" as though this is completely done and dusted and can be compared like that. Lots of people saying it's "just a cold" or "That report from hospital staff isn't true" and so on and so on.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
traders not so much believing that as believing that people will believe it and taking advantage of that if that makes sense.
of course. you know how the stock market works. it's about perceived rather than actual value. sometimes those coincide, sometimes they don't.

it's also about perception of investors' perception of the market.

I was going to mention that the VIX is also down a bit the last 3 days as well. it's still at 61 - which is fucking crazy - but that's down from a peak near 70.

ironically, for his complete obsession w/the stock market + esp the Dow, Trump deserves a huge part of the blame for its collapse

not only for America's extremely lethargic response to COVID, but for essentially misleading investors for weeks

if he had just been up front there would have been initial panic/sell-off/losses but I strongly believe it wouldn't have been nearly as bad as the wild panic we got

especially in something so based on perception, it's better to be up front about bad news and let people adjust their expectations accordingly
 
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