The "how I will be watching the election results" thread

nomadthethird

more issues than Time mag
Inorite? I need to have an excuse to stop watching horrible, horrible cable news show.

Does anyone else use pollster.com? Can't wait to watch it finally fill up with blue in places where there hasn't been any for years...
 

vimothy

yurp
Gelman:

Now, what if the vote margin in Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky were to equal the expected -5.7%? We pipe this assumption through our model by calculating, for each of our 10,000 simulations, the average vote margin in these five states, and then restricting our analysis to the subset of simulations for which this vote margin is within 1 percentage point of its expected value (that is, between -6.7% and -4.7%). Out of our 10,000 simulations, 2800 fall in this range; that is, we predict there is a 28% chance that McCain’s average vote margin in these five states will be between 4.7% and 6.7%. What is of more interest is what happens if this occurs. Considering this subset of simulations, Obama’s expected national popular vote margin is +4.7%, his expected electoral vote total is 343, and the conditional probability of an Obama victory is 100%: he wins the electoral college in all 2800 simulations in this condition.​
 

nomadthethird

more issues than Time mag
Tax-dodging fuckwits with record contracts?

It's more fair to call him Sam the guy with no plumbing license who doesn't pay taxes because he "didn't know about them" who makes $40,000/year which is nowhere near enough to buy a small business and who was an obvious republican plant
 

john eden

male pale and stale
hmmm the news seems to be on in the room with my records in (including a complete set of Psychic TV live LPs).

Thwarted again!

Curse you, yankee democracy!
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Election statisticians are using the Monte Carlo method to compute vote outcome likelihoods? Awesome. :cool:
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
It's more fair to call him Sam the guy with no plumbing license who doesn't pay taxes because he "didn't know about them" who makes $40,000/year which is nowhere near enough to buy a small business and who was an obvious republican plant

Surely if was a GOP plant, and given the starring role they gave him later, they would've chosen someone smarter. I mean, I know this is the party of bush & palin, but no one would knowingly walk into this
and even embarrass their No1 cheerleaders.
 

nomadthethird

more issues than Time mag
Surely if was a GOP plant, and given the starring role they gave him later, they would've chosen someone smarter. I mean, I know this is the party of bush & palin, but no one would knowingly walk into this
and even embarrass their No1 cheerleaders.

But they did plant him I'm totally serious! They even told him to use the name "Joe" so it would work into the whole Joe Six Pack thing. He's a nascar dad, and nascar dads won the election for Bush both times!

Also, we're supposed to relate to Joe's simplistic and uninformed sounding off as "low-information" undecided voters.

There's no one more worthy of suspicion in the U.S. than someone who went to a good college.
 

jambo

slip inside my schlafsack
Well, don't I feel silly now for voting for Obama, after someone with no foreign policy credentials and no formal education made an outrageous claim that's obviously bullshit.

Thanks, Fox, for spoonfeeding me what I should be terrified about. Otherwise I might have to think and actually read things once in a while!
Or even watch a youtube clip!
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
But they did plant him I'm totally serious! They even told him to use the name "Joe" so it would work into the whole Joe Six Pack thing.

Haha, this is like how Nixon's government decided the Viet Nimh should be called the Viet Cong because it sounded scary and communist.

Edit: actually, it's not really, is it? I think I'm going to go and watch TV now.
 
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