Iranian democracy
- Thread starter crackerjack
- Start date
vimothy
yurp
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
oh forreals? no, I caught that. I was going to add "don't even joke about that" but that would've made it sound like it had some degree of plausibility. also it was half-joking, black humor, kernel of truth joking, no?
you'd like him to do what exactly?
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
something I noticed while reading an article in Newsweek - Iran's plummeting total fertility rate, >1.7 children/woman. which is esp. nuts cos it's down from a TFR of 6.5 in 1980. we're talking world record drop-off here, & apparently flying in the face of all demographer wisdom.
1955-2000
2003-2008
in the "reasons why" category - as opposed to minute-by-minute updates (which Vim - & good work sir, whether we agree or not - has on lockdown) here's a very interesting article from February on the decline of Iran:
Sex Drugs & Islam
drop in TFR duly mentioned, also - staggeringly high #s of opium addicts (something like 5% of the adult population!), educated women choosing prostitution as a road to affluence (on the order of American women working their way thru college as strippers).
it all speaks to the catastrophic encounter w/the 21st century Vim has postulated, tho it's been catastrophic for everyone, not just the mullahs, who are themselves - yeah, futilely - trying to hold back history. it also goes a long way to explaining the desperation they feel - nothing to lose.
1955-2000
2003-2008
in the "reasons why" category - as opposed to minute-by-minute updates (which Vim - & good work sir, whether we agree or not - has on lockdown) here's a very interesting article from February on the decline of Iran:
Sex Drugs & Islam
drop in TFR duly mentioned, also - staggeringly high #s of opium addicts (something like 5% of the adult population!), educated women choosing prostitution as a road to affluence (on the order of American women working their way thru college as strippers).
it all speaks to the catastrophic encounter w/the 21st century Vim has postulated, tho it's been catastrophic for everyone, not just the mullahs, who are themselves - yeah, futilely - trying to hold back history. it also goes a long way to explaining the desperation they feel - nothing to lose.
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scottdisco
rip this joint please
dunno if anybody else saw it but just saw the opening footage of Basij shooting dead seven protestors on Ch4 News at Noon five mins ago.
i know we've discussed Iranian opiates, prostitution etc on other threads, but seeing the numbers presented as P does, this clear-eyed illustration of falling stats, is large.
just ignore that sick-azz Brit humour eh P?
(got yr PM BTW man, will be in touch anon. loved that anecdote!)
i know we've discussed Iranian opiates, prostitution etc on other threads, but seeing the numbers presented as P does, this clear-eyed illustration of falling stats, is large.
just ignore that sick-azz Brit humour eh P?
(got yr PM BTW man, will be in touch anon. loved that anecdote!)
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
just ignore that sick-azz Brit humour eh P?
nah I reckon my sense of humor is even drier! actually I think it's that in the back of my head I'm just paranoid that somehow we will wind up - or Bibi will drag us into - some incredibly stupid war with Iran...
re: falling birth rates in conflict zones - see also;
Lebanon - down from 4.3 in 1980 to 1.87 now
Sri Lanka - down from 3.75 to ~2 - put forth as one of the major, largely unspoken reasons for the end of the civil war - less recruits, plus less kids means more opportunities for education, jobs etc
on the other hand the Gaza Strip is at a healthy 5.9, tho the West Bank is down at 3.31, including a sharp decline in the last 5 years.
3 Body No Problem
Well-known member
scottdisco
rip this joint please
all interesting stats and i was particularly intrigued wrt this one. SL is such a broken society, certainly in the areas where conflict has most touched, really worse off than even a lot of other conflict zones/warring nations, in terms of the duration and reach of the conflict there specifically
scottdisco
rip this joint please
Mint condoms!
nice one 3 Body (will PM you anon re Thailand etc BTW)
nice one 3 Body (will PM you anon re Thailand etc BTW)
scottdisco
rip this joint please
just reading that ATimes piece, i do have my doubts about Spengler's world-view sometimes.
Craner can tell us all about Pepe Escobar, another ATimes nutter.
Craner can tell us all about Pepe Escobar, another ATimes nutter.
crackerjack
Well-known member
The League of Decency seems determined to drag Bush back into this, as if forged Iranian elections prove he was right about Iraq, or that walrus-tashed cunt whose name escapes me* was right about Iran, or something.
Even Aaronovitch, who I generally rate much higher, is sounding off about this being what happens in a post-Bush world and apparently confusing Amnesty & HRW with the SWP.
*Bolton.
craner
Beast of Burden
I'd like him to have the guts and clear eyes to follow through on this:
which was WELL SAID. He said it, he should sell it. Why not? And lose what? His precious detente with the mullahs?
I think we've just witnessed a far more potent and principled alternative. But our reaction to it has been sluggish and cynical, to say the least. It's an embarrasment.
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crackerjack
Well-known member
what would this achieve, other than making it easier for the theocracy to portray a democratic uprising as the work of the great satan?
crackerjack
Well-known member
The Decents aren't a party, just a likeminded group of (generally) Labour supporters who took a Blairite view of the Iraq war.