Iranian democracy

craner

craner

Beast of Burden
They are a pretty tightly knit social group, too, from what I have witnessed. Scott will back me up on that, at least.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
A power bloc!

So, it is 4.55 in Tehran. 5 minutes to the big protest. Anyone got links to any pictures?

Also, it seems like the regime is splitting into to the armed forces on one side and the old school Islamic revolutionaries (Larijani, Rasfanjani, etc) on the other...?
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
3 Body No Problem said:
Here's and here are old articles on the matter. I think increasing standards of living and in particular a drastic raise in female levels of education can account for this.
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true & true. as affluence increases birth rates drop. hence, for example, why it's in the Israelis' interests to raise the affluence of Palestinians.

still, everything I've read on Iran (which, admittedly, is not a great deal) suggests that its astronomically dropping TFR is unaccountable even by those metrics.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Doctors and nurses are protesting in a major hospital in Tehran:


one of nurses is shouting "7 people died in this hospital last night"
 
J

josef k.

Dangerous Mystagogue
Obama's statement:

"It is up to Iranians to make decisions about who Iran's leaders will be... We respect Iranian sovereignty and want to avoid the United States being the issue inside of Iran."
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Seems perfect to me.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
GuardianUSART @RAGreeneCNN: Thousands jam streets of Tehran in support of Ahmadinejad - details soon #iranelection
 
J

josef k.

Dangerous Mystagogue
How powerful are the Basij and their allies? How strong is Khamenei? It seems like the protesters will need to break the back of the Iranian security state - somehow - to stand any chance of success. That seems unlikely right now.
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
craner said:
Well, that's now received wisdom, but based on what
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Erm, based on the term not really existing until it was used (initially, I think, by themselves, later as mockery) to characterise pro-war elements of the left chatterati. Those last few words are far more defining than whether or not you hang out with Oliver Kamm.

edit: sorry, anyway, no wish to derail. And wot Josef says about the recount. If you wanna know which way this is headed, just look at who's being arrested.
 
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vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Khamenei has cultivated the armed forces. It seems to me that he has lost the support of the clerics (if he ever really had it) and the older generation of the revolution. Maybe we're witnessing the recolonisation of the Islamic revolution by a faction of the IRGC, which is supportive of Kamenei.

BTW, the Basij are thugs with sticks and AKs (volunteers), but there are also the police, Lebas-shakhsi-ha, IRGC, the regular army, Ansar Hezb Allah, etc, etc....
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Ok, people who have been keeping score: who (in terms of regime officials) has been arrested, and who has quit in support?
 
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