Absolutely massive 30-years-style schismic war brewing between Saudi and allies (gulf states, Sudan just declared) and Iran and allies (Russia?). That should sort the oil price out.
Heh, Roger Boyes in the Times had a rough night
THE TIMES
Tuesday, February 16
How Syria could drag global powers into wider conflict
Published at 12:01AM, February 16 2016
The third world war could arrive without the understood rituals of ultimatums delivered and defied, . Instead, conflict might arrive incrementally as one power after another enters the fray to protect clients.
Northern Syria is approaching that moment. The battle for Aleppo will determine the survival of Assad. That is why such a high premium is being placed on control of the Azaz corridor, the strip of land that serves as a supply route from the Turkish frontier to eastern Aleppo, Syria’s second city.
There are four potential flashpoints.
1. Trigger-happy turkey
Ankara can see its policy in the Middle East collapsing. It hopes Azaz will be a base for Turkish-backed rebels to snatch back eastern Aleppo once Islamic State has been weakened by western airstrikes. If Azaz falls to the Kurds, however, they will be in a strong position to form a hostile state on the Turkish border. Preventing that is so important for the Turks that they may send in ground troops and risk a flare-up between Nato and Russian forces.
Will Nato troops follow Turkey on the ground? No. But if Russian jets stray into Turkish air space, provoking an aerial clash, Ankara could call on Nato for collective defence — and a big war edges closer.
2. Putin v Erdogan
Russia is concentrated on blocking Turkey. It has delivered weapons to 5,000 Kurdish fighters and its aircraft have attacked a convoy of rebel supplies crossing from Turkey into Syria.
If the Azaz corridor is closed, Russia will help Assad forces to block other Turkish border crossings. If this were to be followed by the ethnic cleansing by Russia and Syria of Turkmens, Turkish public opinion would demand action, even at the risk of confronting the Russians.
3. Putin’s gamble
It could be part of President Putin’s gameplan to provoke Turkey into military action against the Syrian Kurds. This would push the Kurds into joining the Russian alliance alongside Assad, Iran and Hezbollah. The West would be denied its only effective partner on the ground in the war against Isis and the balance of advantage would shift in Assad’s favour. This could prompt a change of heart in the West and nudge the US into sending ground forces. Turkey v Kurds becomes US v Russia.
4. Saudi Arabia v Iran
The wild card is the force of Saudi jets at Incirlik base in Turkey. It seems they are part of the assault on Raqqa rather than the looming battle for Aleppo. The entry of Riyadh, which is also talking about sending in troops, could be pivotal. It would not take much — the Russian downing of a Saudi jet and the Iranian seizure of the pilot — for two fronts to merge: Shia v Sunni, Russia v Nato. Then all bets are off.