Jeremy Corbyn
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baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
Last 9 polls show Lab on 32-35%, which is exactly where Miliband was in almost all polls in the last week before the 2015 election. However, a surveymonkey survey, with a far higher sample size than normal, showed him on 28% with the Tories 6 ahead (much more indicative of the actual result) .... I don't recall the media mentioning that much at the time, painting the result as a massive surprise
Difference has to be that Corbyn has much more momentum (ahem) right now than Mililband ever did. Waiting with baited breath for the polls following the Tory U-turn.
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baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
Let's hope so - I daren't quite believe it yet.
I hadn't seen the Welsh breakdown - is that 16% swing over a single week?!
The figures for under-50 versus over-50 were already extraordinary, even before the manifestos. We really are not in Kansas any longer.
I hadn't seen the Welsh breakdown - is that 16% swing over a single week?!
The figures for under-50 versus over-50 were already extraordinary, even before the manifestos. We really are not in Kansas any longer.
craner
Beast of Burden
Nobody knows. That's the point. Historically he was of the Bennite left who were anti-EU, seeing it as antithetical to industrial workers interests, and a capitalist bloc. This has led to much confusion from the current socialist Labour leaders who can't quite get the right angle on it, as that old constituency no longer exists except to vote UKIP, Tory or not at all. It's a mess.
It's also a mess for the Lib Democrats who seem unable to make any ground on the anti-Leave vote despite being the only really credible and outright pro-EU party. I understand that, though, they have always been a joke.
It's really interesting that this whole thing has been turned on its head this week by the manifesto launches which is why I don't discredit Droid's hunch, though I find it unlikely.
Droid will be relieved to know that I have no hunch for this one. I'm confounded.
It's also a mess for the Lib Democrats who seem unable to make any ground on the anti-Leave vote despite being the only really credible and outright pro-EU party. I understand that, though, they have always been a joke.
It's really interesting that this whole thing has been turned on its head this week by the manifesto launches which is why I don't discredit Droid's hunch, though I find it unlikely.
Droid will be relieved to know that I have no hunch for this one. I'm confounded.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Why? "Britain will be at risk from terrorism under Labour" hardly makes sense when a major attack has just happen on the Tories' watch.
firefinga
Well-known member
They'll paint Labour/Corbyn as an islamist-apologist soon enough and will be very sucessful with it. Plus, there will be excessive demands for even more surveillance/police state tactics which ususally work into the hands of conservatives.
craner
Beast of Burden
Well, there is the Hamas/Hezbollah thing, but I've got the impression over the last two years (it has been brought up a lot already) that it's simply too arcane and ambigious to be a killer factor with the electorate. It's a slightly different thing to being an apologist for al-Qaed or ISIS, which he has never been.
There is past form here. The French attacks didn't win France for the far-right. The Jo Cox murder didn't swing it for the anti-Brexit vote, as many thought it would do in the immediate aftermath. I don't think these things have the effect on voting that some think they do.
There is past form here. The French attacks didn't win France for the far-right. The Jo Cox murder didn't swing it for the anti-Brexit vote, as many thought it would do in the immediate aftermath. I don't think these things have the effect on voting that some think they do.
sufi
lala
Interesting isnt it. Corbyn's form for "terror sympathising" with the IRA left him on the right side of history, and voters could see that as a positive in these generally uncompromising times. & May's "strong and stable" shtick is proving pretty disastrous, even before this horrible attack.
& where's Putin in all this? favouring Corbs and the anti-frackers, now that UKIP have gone AWOL???
firefinga
Well-known member
First off, I haven't done any research beforehand but I'd assume Putin is rather for Corbyn (so we are assuming Putin is meddling with politics in European states on a massive (?) scale) since I also assume Corbyn is soft on Iran and Assad. Two of Putin's best buddies.
Of course, UKIP did Putin the biggest favor already by making Brexit possible.
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craner
Beast of Burden
All of Putin's work here is done by RT, I think. There is no evidence of any form of direct meddling in our elections, unlike France and America. RT, however, seems to appeal to both far-left and far-right cranks and conspiracy theorists on this island and does a tidy job of rotting debates.