Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
I think you should do it. Normally I wouldn't think so, but here they say theres no risk.
COINBASE for Crypto has come
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
This is the Binance guy:
Have you been accumulating $link?
They appear to have it all sewn up, it being SWIFT and DTCC, and all CBDCs.
They appear to have it all sewn up, it being SWIFT and DTCC, and all CBDCs.
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
Yeah thats really the only other asset I've been holding onto, aside from $NEXO, which I plan on selling at a loss soon.
william_kent
Well-known member
I don't know if any of you have been following the Sam Bankman-Fried / FTX trial but he didn't do too well... found guilty on all 7 charges
- Wire fraud on FTX customers
- Conspiracy to commit wire fraud on FTX customers
- Wire fraud on Alameda Research lenders
- Conspiracy to commit wire fraud on Alameda Research lenders
- Conspiracy to commit securities fraud
- Conspiracy to commit commodities fraud
- Conspiracy to commit money laundering
This tweet strikes me as wild hopium, but the reasoning is interesting. @vimothy ?
With the help of BlackRock, #BTC will become a part of the standard portfolio allocation from here on out.
For the longest time, the model portfolio was a 60/40 with 60% stocks and 40% bonds. The idea behind the recommended allocation between equities and fixed income securities was to dampen volatility during rough times.
Historically speaking, when stocks zig, bonds zag, which mutes the downside of any sharp retracements in stocks. Bonds typically acted as a portfolio stabilizer.
Lately things have gone haywire because, as max keiser often says, "you can't taper a ponzi". In 2022 we saw equities getting rekt, and bonds getting rekt at the same time. 60/40 portfolios got obliterated.
Why? Eventually you run into math. In this case, the math is saying that it's checkmate for fiat currencies. All governments are balls deep in debt. And so much money will need to be printed to absorb all of the upcoming sovereign debt issuance that there's no way any fiat currency is going to hold value against anything real. Central banks will have to print new money to buy up that debt. It'll be QE infinity. Wall Street is waking up to this reality. Time to rethink the classic 60/40 portfolio.
BlackRock will convince its clients and the broader institutional investment community that BTC has a place in every portfolio. It won't just be because they'll own a spot BTC ETF. It'll also be because it's true. Again, it's just math. BTC, as wild as it is, actually makes a portfolio less volatile as a whole. At the same time, BTC dramatically increases the return potential of any portfolio.
So, how much, as a percentage of a portfolio, will BlackRock recommend that people allocate to Bitcoin?
Tough to say. But their internal geek squad ran the numbers and came back with an 84.9% allocation to BTC as the most optimal. What they actually advise people to do will be much more conservative.
The new portfolio allocation model might be:
60% stocks
35% bonds
5% BTC
or perhaps something more aggressive like:
50% stocks
30% bonds
20% BTC
We can't be certain about what their recommended allocation will be. But they will be taking a leading role in educating Wall Street about Bitcoin. This is a good thing, as Wall Street is largely ignoring crypto X. But they all trust Uncle Larry. No one on Wall Street will ever get fired for taking his advice.
Let's use the conservative allocation and say that BTC becomes 5% of the typical portfolio, with many investors using a spot ETF to get their BTC exposure. How much money are we talking about? And how might it impact the price of BTC?
Let's assume that there are $454 trillion dollars in the world. And let's assume that 10% of the people in the world follow the recommended portfolio allocation to Bitcoin. Let's also assume that the average portfolio size is just $10,000.
That would mean that $2.25 trillion makes its way into BTC simply for following the advice of Uncle Larry.
Remember that the Bitcoin network value is set at the margin. The multiplier that I came up with is $193 in market cap for every $1 invested into BTC. But let's use Bank of America's more conservative multiplier of 118x.
$2.25 trillion invested into Bitcoin would potentially increase its market cap by a whopping $265 trillion dollars. If BlackRock is successful in educating Wall Street (and Main Street) about Bitcoin, and they follow his advice, the BTC price could reach $12.6 million dollars per coin by way of becoming a standard part of investors' portfolios.
With the help of BlackRock, #BTC will become a part of the standard portfolio allocation from here on out.
For the longest time, the model portfolio was a 60/40 with 60% stocks and 40% bonds. The idea behind the recommended allocation between equities and fixed income securities was to dampen volatility during rough times.
Historically speaking, when stocks zig, bonds zag, which mutes the downside of any sharp retracements in stocks. Bonds typically acted as a portfolio stabilizer.
Lately things have gone haywire because, as max keiser often says, "you can't taper a ponzi". In 2022 we saw equities getting rekt, and bonds getting rekt at the same time. 60/40 portfolios got obliterated.
Why? Eventually you run into math. In this case, the math is saying that it's checkmate for fiat currencies. All governments are balls deep in debt. And so much money will need to be printed to absorb all of the upcoming sovereign debt issuance that there's no way any fiat currency is going to hold value against anything real. Central banks will have to print new money to buy up that debt. It'll be QE infinity. Wall Street is waking up to this reality. Time to rethink the classic 60/40 portfolio.
BlackRock will convince its clients and the broader institutional investment community that BTC has a place in every portfolio. It won't just be because they'll own a spot BTC ETF. It'll also be because it's true. Again, it's just math. BTC, as wild as it is, actually makes a portfolio less volatile as a whole. At the same time, BTC dramatically increases the return potential of any portfolio.
So, how much, as a percentage of a portfolio, will BlackRock recommend that people allocate to Bitcoin?
Tough to say. But their internal geek squad ran the numbers and came back with an 84.9% allocation to BTC as the most optimal. What they actually advise people to do will be much more conservative.
The new portfolio allocation model might be:
60% stocks
35% bonds
5% BTC
or perhaps something more aggressive like:
50% stocks
30% bonds
20% BTC
We can't be certain about what their recommended allocation will be. But they will be taking a leading role in educating Wall Street about Bitcoin. This is a good thing, as Wall Street is largely ignoring crypto X. But they all trust Uncle Larry. No one on Wall Street will ever get fired for taking his advice.
Let's use the conservative allocation and say that BTC becomes 5% of the typical portfolio, with many investors using a spot ETF to get their BTC exposure. How much money are we talking about? And how might it impact the price of BTC?
Let's assume that there are $454 trillion dollars in the world. And let's assume that 10% of the people in the world follow the recommended portfolio allocation to Bitcoin. Let's also assume that the average portfolio size is just $10,000.
That would mean that $2.25 trillion makes its way into BTC simply for following the advice of Uncle Larry.
Remember that the Bitcoin network value is set at the margin. The multiplier that I came up with is $193 in market cap for every $1 invested into BTC. But let's use Bank of America's more conservative multiplier of 118x.
$2.25 trillion invested into Bitcoin would potentially increase its market cap by a whopping $265 trillion dollars. If BlackRock is successful in educating Wall Street (and Main Street) about Bitcoin, and they follow his advice, the BTC price could reach $12.6 million dollars per coin by way of becoming a standard part of investors' portfolios.
If I have a criticism of this line of argument, it's that a Chainlink ETF would take up some of that allocation.
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
The SEC just got hacked and the hacker posted a fake statement saying that the Bitcoin ETF has been approved, which was this big milestone event the crypto industry has been waiting for, because it indicates mainstream financial adoption and it could also conceivably contribute to stablizing the whole crypto financial economy.
I had a target price of 48000 and it topped out on 47902 on that fake approval. I'm hoping it wicks to 52k tonight. Chainlink ETF is the one I'm holding out for though.
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
Here we go again:
Only the start! Inflation-adjusted all time high is nearer $79k (though ATHs have been achieved in many non-dollar countries).
But more importantly, we have not had the reward halving yet, that's next month. And this after Blackrock et al spent 18 months tanking bitcoin to 16k to accumulate. Saylor's Microstrategy owns 205,000 as of today. Kicking myself for not buying $MSTR at $670 a couple of weeks ago, it's $1600 now 😭
What will really put a rocket under it is a G7 country announcing that they have been accumulating a Bitcoin treasury. Some think it could be France.
If you don't get this by now...
But more importantly, we have not had the reward halving yet, that's next month. And this after Blackrock et al spent 18 months tanking bitcoin to 16k to accumulate. Saylor's Microstrategy owns 205,000 as of today. Kicking myself for not buying $MSTR at $670 a couple of weeks ago, it's $1600 now 😭
What will really put a rocket under it is a G7 country announcing that they have been accumulating a Bitcoin treasury. Some think it could be France.
If you don't get this by now...
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
One of the annoying things about these bull runs though, is that they make ETH gas prices soar up. I'm trying to send some assets from a personal multisig, to another wallet to swap and cash out, and the combine transactions of those moves would be like $110 or some such right now, on mainnet (not a problem on L2s). Fluctuates maybe around a margin of 40% across peak network activity over the day, but still, absurd.
It's even high on L2s. My blessed arbitrum wants a few dollars for most transactions now.
But isn't there a new fork coming which promises to make has cheaper? Imminently I mean.
Holding out for chainlink becoming universal gas ™
But isn't there a new fork coming which promises to make has cheaper? Imminently I mean.
Holding out for chainlink becoming universal gas ™