World cup predictions rant

[DigitalDjigit]

What about Ukraine? They tore through their (tough) qualifying group. Their group in the WC shouldn't be any trouble. Then they probably face Korea which should be no problem. In the round of eight they either face Brazil or whoever beats Brazil (could be either of Italy, USA or Czechs) though.

 

[k-punk]

What about Ukraine? They tore through their (tough) qualifying group. Their group in the WC shouldn't be any trouble. Then they probably face Korea which should be no problem. In the round of eight they either face Brazil or whoever beats Brazil (could be either of Italy, USA or Czechs) though.

Sounds like a good tip, that...

 

[k-punk]

I agree with some of the sentiment, but would argue that England are very much short of getting the correct eleven on the pitch

• The midfield needs sorted. Gerrard and Lampard can't play in the middle together. They need a defensive midfielder otherwise they are in trouble. I can't see who this would be, but King and Carrick would be taken apart by the likes of Ronadinhio and Relimque (sp).
  

• 
  
  I'd give Carrick or King a go; King got roasted by commentators after the Argentina game but (a) he was up against the very best (b) he's likely to improve and (c) even then the Argentines only managed one goal (and that with England lacking their two first choice full backs)
  
  Scott Parker is another worth considering (if his career survived Sunday's horror challenge).
  
  The broader point would be that teams often only emerge in the tournament itself ---- injuries and all other kinds of contingencies can suddenly produce a team/ formation etc.
  
  There'll be at least one fringe player who'll make it into the squad and make his name; there usually is.

 

[carlos]

i was trying to look through lists of Euro, Copa America and World Cup winners to see if some patterns emerge. then i noticed that nobody in europe could figure out Greece in Euro 2004 and they didn't even qualify for the world cup

is anybody here predicting an all euro semifinal? cause i can't say i would be too excited to see that... it might even give my old dad a heart attack

 

[alo]

My Two Pence And A Bit

I've got to say, i think the nerves /boyish excitement will kick in hard after the tinsel is cleared away this year.

Yep, no doubt about it, England are looking go-- No, lets not even say it less a jinx is hereby forthcoming. We get jittery and all self concious when we are expected to do really well. Lets just hope Sven keeps his useless coaching manual behind in England, particularly the section about Substitions.

I agree with the thoughts upthread; there is a tendency to lump together the best individual players England have at their disposal, in the vain hope the team plays well as a unit. Thats why Gerrard and Lampard play off each other like a couple of pissed Aunts doing the macarena at a wedding reception.
Gerrard should perhaps play in front of the back four because he's robust in the tackle, good at the long pass to release the front two quickly, and have Lampard behind Rooney and Owen, rather than a flat midfield of four? As it is, the midfield is crowded, and we tend to attack edging the ball up to the opposition box only to run out of space with which to create anything. I reckon England are much more deadly on a quick break: Imagine Rooney bearing down on you one on one from 35 yards out?

Other than that, (re sentiment above) lets hope Brazil don't win it again, i fancy the USA to go further than predicted if they get out of that group for some reason, Argentina, Ukraine, and possibly Ghana to do well.

Always of some peripheral interest is watching the shambolic peformance of ITV's punditry team. Always fun, although slightly comi-tragic when Gazza could hardly string two words together that time. I mean, Ally McCoist and Andy Townsend for fucks sake, they're only one level up from Sky's uber, super-shit punditry purgatory.

!

 

[mind_philip]

I think people rightly fancy Brazil because they have the two best attacking midfielders in the world both playing in something approaching the form of their lives (Kaka and Ronaldinho) in addition to a wealth of reliable strikers (Ronaldo may not be the player he once was, but I hope that 'over-rated' slight wasn't directed at his younger self - up until his injury at Inter he was the equal of any striker you care to name). They also have a defence of increased reliability (and a very talented keeper in Dida) and Emerson should be fit this time to anchor the defence, and if he's good enough for to play the most boring defensive role for the most boring defensive team in the world (Juve) I'd say he's probably going to do alright.

I know I'll never understand the mentality that would rather see an English player labour the ball up the field rather than watch Ronaldinho skin some lunging defender for the Nth time, but the knee-jerk annoyance at appreciating flair and individuality does seem the exact equal of the knee-jerk dismissal of English chances. Lampard and Gerrard are both excellent players, but seem to do nothing more than confuse each other when they play in the same team. Large stretches of the game against Argentina saw England have virtually no posession, a situation that they cannot assume will go as unpunished as it did by the wasteful Crespo and company - a last minute goal is no good if you're 3-0 down.

I see England as reliable quarter finalists, but don't see enough quality in the squad to say that I'd be confident putting money on them if they came up against any other major European team - there's not enough separation to say that any one of England, Italy, Germany, Holland, Spain or Portugal are better than any other. Finishing second in the group and meeting Germany in round 2 would see a potential early exit.

 

[red_shift]

mind_philip's right about both Brazil and England there (though I rate England's chances of getting beyond the QFs higher than he does). Re. Brazil, m_p doesn't mention Adriano, who probably should start ahead of Ronaldo these days. Given how many of their best players are with European teams, the fact that the tournament is in Germany shouldn't really be a problem.

Re. England: m_p's also right to point out their lack of possession in the Argentina game. There were periods at 2-1 where they couldn't get close to the ball, and you could argue that the comeback was precipitated, at least in part, by the welter of late Argentinian substitutions. England's big problem in their current make-up is that they seem unable to retain the ball and spend a lot of time either chasing or sitting back, inviting the opposition on (sometimes defending way too deep). If you check the possession stats for Euro 2004, you'll see that the only game where they managed 50% possession was against Croatia. In the q-f it was 61-39 in Portugal's favour. The stats for the world cup 2002 q-f vs Brazil were similar, and less forgivable. Another similar game was the 3-0 win vs Denmark is r2 of the 2002 world cup.

That these three were such different games might suggest I'm making too much out of a coincidence, but the fact remains that England don't dominate football matches at big tournaments, whether through having acheived a comfort zone early (Denmark, Croatia), taking an early lead and inviting the opposition on (Argentina in 2002, France, Portugal), or failing to grasp the initiative in games up for grabs (Sweden, Nigeria, Brazil, all in 2002). This seems just odd given the surfeit of talent they have in the midfield. Maybe it's the coach ..? Certainly it's a combination of never really having found a way to properly accommodate those talents, and having in both Beckham and Gerrard two players who, when things aren't going well, want to do Absolutely Everything Themselves, often counter-productively. And the recent problems with Lampard and Gerrard sharing the middle are well documented.

Possible solutions: on the left, if Ashely Cole gets fit and retains his form, he and Joe Cole would be my choice, with a proper holding midfielder (Parker?) next to Lampard or Gerrard in the centre. Given that Liverpool's recent run of form seems to have coincided with Benitez moving Gerrard more to the right, would it be totally unthinkable to - and stay with me now - drop Beckham?

Contra m_p, I could easily see England overcoming Germany in the second round - in fact, even given their weaknesses, I could see them beating pretty much any of the European teams. None of them, save possibly Ukraine and Holland, are coming into the tournament on convincing form. And none of them have Rooney and Owen. Brazil and Argentina look like the teams to beat, and England have already shown that they can beat one of them.

They could win it.

And having a typically Scottish deep fried chip on each shoulder, you can't imagine how much I'd hate that.

 

[k-punk]

I know I'll never understand the mentality that would rather see an English player labour the ball up the field rather than watch Ronaldinho skin some lunging defender for the Nth time,

yeh, but come on who actually thinks that? The dominant hack position is that England are carthorses, they'll never compete with the silky slick Latinos...Certainly, I'd rather see a fast, effective premiership-style passing side than neat, prissy S American triangles going nowhere. But the reality is that the England team now are massively technically improved from what they once were, and that Rooney is as good as anyone in the world. And there's no more reliable striker anywhere than Owen.

but the knee-jerk annoyance at appreciating flair and individuality does seem the exact equal of the knee-jerk dismissal of English chances. Lampard and Gerrard are both excellent players, but seem to do nothing more than confuse each other when they play in the same team.

I think Gerrard is incredibly over-rated actually. He can be brilliant, but his constant desire to play the killer ball means that his distribution can be wasteful.

I see England as reliable quarter finalists, but don't see enough quality in the squad to say that I'd be confident putting money on them if they came up against any other major European team - there's not enough separation to say that any one of England, Italy, Germany, Holland, Spain or Portugal are better than any other. Finishing second in the group and meeting Germany in round 2 would see a potential early exit.

But all of this is reversible... it's not as if you could be confident in putting money on Italy, Germany, Holland, Portugal or (ha!) Spain to go any further. Certainly, Germany apart, the recent record would suggest that England are better than those teams. (And Germany, perennial lucksters that they are, managed to get to the final last time without playing one major world team). Germany I worry about, not because they are better than England, but because of the high statistical probability that the home team will reach at least the semi-final.

It should also be borne in mind that the best team doesn't always, or even usually, win tournaments. Would anyone say that Greece were the best team in Euro 2004?

 

[jenks]

It should also be borne in mind that the best team doesn't always, or even usually, win tournaments. Would anyone say that Greece were the best team in Euro 2004?

no.

i still think we can play with all three in the middle - if they stick to their jobs - gerrard at the back - lamps up front - beckahm on the right ( remember that neville will be back in the side - bex is a different player with the tash behind him - good defensive protection and nice overlaps)

think i would like to see how well wright-philipps for chelsea but like the idea of his pace on the left, always find joe cole a bit of a show pony, would have said play ashley cole in midfield and bridge in left defence but what's happened to bridge? for all my blinkered love of spurs i don't think carrick is up to it for a full 90 and ledley is rock solid in the middle of defence but no midfielder. i think sven's answer could well be hargreaves.

kpunk's point about owen is dead right - he never lets the side down - he is a big match player who just needs the ball played ahead of him - defenders do not like it when he runs at them. and rooney is developing that approach where he can take games by the scruff of the neck and bend them to his will.

the worry is the squad - we ended up with people like danny mills filling in in the past - much like england's cricket team (and rugby team) if we can keep the main 11 together we'll have a decent chance but once we start having to replace players (particularly upfront) then maybe we'll be in trouble - unless we play australia in the final

 

[k-punk]

( remember that neville will be back in the side - bex is a different player with the tash behind him - good defensive protection and nice overlaps)

That's quite right. Another thing that has to be borne in mind about the Argentina game was that it was won in spite of England lacking their two first choice full backs.

think i would like to see how well wright-philipps for chelsea but like the idea of his pace on the left, always find joe cole a bit of a show pony, would have said play ashley cole in midfield and bridge in left defence but what's happened to bridge? for all my blinkered love of spurs i don't think carrick is up to it for a full 90 and ledley is rock solid in the middle of defence but no midfielder. i think sven's answer could well be hargreaves.

Hargreaves is not as bad as is sometimes suggested. He's none too spectacular, but he hardly ever loses the ball and he's very tenacious when out of possession.

kpunk's point about owen is dead right - he never lets the side down - he is a big match player who just needs the ball played ahead of him - defenders do not like it when he runs at them.

The Argentines call him 'the killer of Argentina'... with good reason given his record agains them.

the worry is the squad - we ended up with people like danny mills filling in in the past - much like england's cricket team (and rugby team) if we can keep the main 11 together we'll have a decent chance but once we start having to replace players (particularly upfront) then maybe we'll be in trouble - unless we play australia in the final

Yeh, it's a worry, particularly at full-back... and obv Rooney is irreplaceable...

 

[alo]

and obv Rooney is irreplaceable...

Theres always Heskey.

 

[jenks]

Theres always Heskey.

Surely Crouch is the new Heskey

 

[don_quixote]

please, peter crouch's performances in an england jersey have been, whilst not remarkable, very competent for the job we expect him to do. although to suggest he's a match for rooney isnt really comparing like to like.

 

[jenks]

Heskey was competent but the point is surely that he was not an international player of substance...
and neither is Crouch

both can do decent jobs for their clubs but i wouldn't want either of them starting for England. The last roll of the dice maybe but no more

 

[mind_philip]

yeh, but come on who actually thinks that? The dominant hack position is that England are carthorses, they'll never compete with the silky slick Latinos...Certainly, I'd rather see a fast, effective premiership-style passing side than neat, prissy S American triangles going nowhere.

Mark, surely you accept that the idea of Brazilians passing the ball uselessly among themselves is as invalid as the idea of England as a bunch of Dave Basset inspired hoof machined. Ronaldinho is arguably one of the most direct and relentless attackers the game has ever seen, and pace and movement typify virtually every player in the squad, from Belletti to Robinho, to Adriano, who I somehow forgot to mention last time.

I think Gerrard is incredibly over-rated actually. He can be brilliant, but his constant desire to play the killer ball means that his distribution can be wasteful.

Personally I think this is the result of too many years playing with Owen's pace as the only outlet at Liverpool, and a diagonal ball over the top being the only likely source of a goal.

But all of this is reversible... it's not as if you could be confident in putting money on Italy, Germany, Holland, Portugal or (ha!) Spain to go any further. Certainly, Germany apart, the recent record would suggest that England are better than those teams. (And Germany, perennial lucksters that they are, managed to get to the final last time without playing one major world team). Germany I worry about, not because they are better than England, but because of the high statistical probability that the home team will reach at least the semi-final.

This was sort of my point. I don't see that (Rooney aside) England have any claim to greater form than the Dutch, the Spanish or the Italians. The Germans will be under-rated by many, but they have several young players like Lahm and Schweinsteiger who could perform given the right home support and the stewardship of an on-form Ballack.

It should also be borne in mind that the best team doesn't always, or even usually, win tournaments. Would anyone say that Greece were the best team in Euro 2004?

Obviously true, but you wouldn't want to rely on not being the best team in the competition as your route to victory...

 

[k-punk]

please, peter crouch's performances in an england jersey have been, whilst not remarkable, very competent for the job we expect him to do. although to suggest he's a match for rooney isnt really comparing like to like.

Yeh he's not half as bad as his rep would have us believe.... and at least he can stand up, which is more than Heskey could manage.... And he's got a couple of goals already this season for Liverpool, which puts him in line to outdo Heskey's career average of about 9 a season...

 

[k-punk]

Mark, surely you accept that the idea of Brazilians passing the ball uselessly among themselves is as invalid as the idea of England as a bunch of Dave Basset inspired hoof machined. Ronaldinho is arguably one of the most direct and relentless attackers the game has ever seen, and pace and movement typify virtually every player in the squad, from Belletti to Robinho, to Adriano, who I somehow forgot to mention last time.

I'm not rational about Brazil, I admit it. I just hate them.

Personally I think this is the result of too many years playing with Owen's pace as the only outlet at Liverpool, and a diagonal ball over the top being the only likely source of a goal.

Maybe so, but that's all the worse then, if he's so headless chicken stupid that he can't adjust to the fact that like er things have changed now...

This was sort of my point. I don't see that (Rooney aside) England have any claim to greater form than the Dutch, the Spanish or the Italians.

Rooney aside is a big aside though... One other thing to note is that England's record against the very big world sides over the last 6 or 7 years is very good... Time was, England would never beat the likes of Argentina, Germany or Italy, but that's no longer the case...

Obviously true, but you wouldn't want to rely on not being the best team in the competition as your route to victory...

lol, though that was a bit of a non sequitur in my post above.... not really a point about England but a point about the silliness of making predictions on the basis of how good a team is on paper... things just don't work out that way... and in tournament football, it certainly is better to be lucky than good...

 

[3underscore]

think i would like to see how well wright-philipps for chelsea but like the idea of his pace on the left, always find joe cole a bit of a show pony,

Wright-Phillips is a no-go on the left wing. Having watched him play for about five seasons before Chelsea chose to rest him at great expense for a few years, Shaun clearly favours the right wing. Originally he was played in several positions at City (including centre forward, believe it or not), and he was always noticably more effective on the Right Wing. Worth watching his games at Chelsea, he will noticably fade out if he switches with Robben / Duff on the left.

I do think he is worth the run on the right for the World Cup. How it fits with Beckham is another thing, but his style really does cause teams problems. Especially in the group stage, he is good for causing lower teams significant problems. Sadly, his chances of a first choice role went (like many others) when he took the money and moved to Chelsea.

 

[labrat]

im no football fan but apparently word is on the streets of Manchester.....Rooney = over.

 

[3underscore]

im no football fan but apparently word is on the streets of Manchester.....Rooney = over.

I think his performance last night, amongst many others this season, would counter that. And that's from a City supporter!