Future War

IdleRich

IdleRich
"Emir Faisal was a Syrian politician and the head of the Arab delegation at the Peace Conference. Who else would you have prefered to go?"
I wouldn't have preferred anyone else to go, I had no problem whatsoever with him signing, I still don't understand why you think I want someone else to have signed it?

I meant that the terrorists in Iraq and worldwide stand to benefit from anything that makes America look bad and in particular from anything which makes America look hypocritical and loose te moral high ground. They didn't engineer what happened in Abu Ghraib (obviously!), but it is to their advantage. 4GW.
OK, but your enigmatic "who profits" seemed to imply more than "the US did a bad thing and it played in to the hands of their enemies". If that was all that you meant couldn't you have said so? The point here (as I've said before) is it wasn't just making the Americans look hypocritical and lose the moral high ground - they were being hypocritical. You seem to have got so caught up in the 4GW thing that you cannot see that sometimes something doesn't need to be spun to represent the US in a bad light.

Three reponses:
Yes, Western actions have done nothing to increase Islamic fundamentalism. Islamic fundamentalism plots its own course.
I don't know. How can one possibly answer a question so vague? How can this possibly be measured? You aren't even providing any evidence in support.
No, in particular Western lifestyles, their influence in the Middle East and the distaste with which the Islamist movement views them, the relative success of the West and the movement of European totalitarian doctrines into the Middle East after WWII, have been one of the chief causes in the rise of Islamic fascist movements.
I have to say that that is a particularly pointless piss-take of an answer.
I realise that you are in a difficult position because the "yes" answer would be indefensible, the "I don't know" still leaves you accused of avoiding the question and the "no" response (although you've greatly qualified it) would completely undermine almost everything you've said.
 

vimothy

yurp
It's what you're trying to say that we're discussing. I merely said that western actions have bolstered Islamist/Jihadist strength - I thought that was something uncontroversial and I'm quite surprised that it's taken me two days of typing before your (surely soon to come) admission that this is true.

It's what I've been discussing, and what I have been trying to allude to constantly with my inane non sequiturs.

You might think that your assertion is non-controversial, and maybe it is. Doesn't make it true though, and it seems very much that it's nothing more than your opinion.

OK, but your enigmatic "who profits" seemed to imply more than "the US did a bad thing and it played in to the hands of their enemies". If that was all that you meant couldn't you have said so? The point here (as I've said before) is it wasn't just making the Americans look hypocritical and lose the moral high ground - they were being hypocritical. You seem to have got so caught up in the 4GW thing that you cannot see that sometimes something doesn't need to be spun to represent the US in a bad light.

Well I apologise for being cryptic, but it did seem pretty straight forward to me, especially considering the discussion we are nominally having. The 4GW thing is just a way of reading the WoT - and in that respect it's not relevant whether the Americans were being hypocritical or not. Of course I think that the recreational torture of detainees is a bad thing and not to be encouraged. It also plays directly into the hands of the jihadists, i.e. it provides them with a very strong anti-American/Western narrative.

I have to say that that is a particularly pointless piss-take of an answer.
I realise that you are in a difficult position because the "yes" answer would be indefensible, the "I don't know" still leaves you accused of avoiding the question and the "no" response (although you've greatly qualified it) would completely undermine almost everything you've said.

Nevertheless this is my position and one that I have argued since I started posting here. Actually, it doesn't seem that controversial to me.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"You might think that your assertion is non-controversial, and maybe it is. Doesn't make it true though, and it seems very much that it's nothing more than your opinion."
I know that it not being controversial doesn't make it true. I believe that it is true though and I thought that your unwillingness to give a straight answer was most likely due to your recognition that of this. You have certainly not argued with it at any point but have mainly tried to imply that my position is that western action is solely responsible for Islamic terrorism and wrestled manfully with that straw-man.

Nevertheless this is my position and one that I have argued since I started posting here. Actually, it doesn't seem that controversial to me.
Nevertheless what is your position? You gave an answer of "yes, no, maybe" - how can that be a position? I am completely baffled now.
 

vimothy

yurp
The most important factor in the rise of Islamism is, IMO, its nature as a political ideology.

The point is you're writing long passages with lots of stuff in them punctuated now and again by rhetorical questions which often seem at best tangentially related to the debate and that I often genuinely can't answer because I can't figure out what they mean. When I write I'm at least trying to keep it simple and ask you direct questions which you are deliberately not answering, I think it's unfair to say that I'm dismissing things out of hand.

Firstly, I've answered all your questions.

Secondly, my questions are crucial to my argument. They relate to the situations which have given rise to Islamism. The fact that you don't see how they're related is puzzling to say the least. For instance, I asked, are people reading the Islamists themselves or at least studies of Islamism - no response. We're discussing the rise of Islamism, it seems pretty obvious how this relates to the discussion. I want to make sure that we have the same understanding of what Islamism is and what it represents. I'm not sure that we do.

But that's because you don't need to talk about an Islamist thinker to say that someone who has a bomb dropped on his house is going to be annoyed with the person who did it. If such a person then finds a load of fundamentalist nutters who hate the bombers for ideological reasons will he not be tempted to join them? That's basically the simple point I'm asking you to concede. Do you agree with me or not?

No such bomb exists, no such person and no such house. I am talking about Islamism, for fuxake, not about the wretched of the earth!

Tell me what you think here and why it is relevant?

Islamism is a totalitarian political ideology that seeks the Talibanisation of the world. It is not a rational response to a lack of political representation (or whatever), nor is it the natural and obvious outcome of Western intervention in the region (or whatever) but merely the latest fascist mass movement to come out of the Middle East. It's origins lie in the reactionary religious movements in Islamic history and with the crumblling of the Ottoman Empire. Islamists want a return to the glory days of Islamic Empire. At no point does Islamofascism seek to address the supposed wrongs of Western intervention (whatever they might be), but has its own positive programme of holy war and sharia law.

During the post-WWII years there was an influx of ideas (Fichte, Marx, Fanon, etc) from European romantic and socialist movements into the Middle East, as well as increased travel and study between the Mid East and the West. Mein Kampf was translated and remains popular to this day. Arab socialism and various nationalist and marxist movements arose (Baathism, Pan Arabism, etc). Anti-semitism became a serious problem in a part of the world where it had never existed before, basically as an import from Europe. Islamism arose as one of these many factions in the Middle East. It would be arguing for the same things even if there had never been any Western presence in the Middle East.

These are the two principle causes of Islamism: the fall of the Islamic Empire and the political milleu of the Middle East in the 20th century.

Regarding your straw man thing, you entered the debate saying, "wouldn't it be truer to say something along the lines of "after all the years of non-leaving-alone we've done we can't just leave them alone 'cause they might be a bit annoyed"?"

You suggested that Islamic terrorism is an expression of annoyance at western "meddling" in Middle Eastern affairs. You said that the US stoked the fires that lead to 9/11. Those fires, as far as I can see, were basically the presence of US troops on al Jazeera (to defend a sovereign Muslim state, remember) and America's role as the seducer of Muslim minds (jahillya etc).

The demented nature of those reasons demonstrates Islamism's nature. Islamism is nihilistic, in love with death, it is violence in search of a cause and it doesn't matter what the West does, whether it seeks the appeasement or the destruction of it, Islamism exists on its own terms.

No. I've pointed out that you cannot say that Western Imperialism has not exacerbated and strengthened the ranks of Islamism. Once again, do you disagree with this?
Just a straight answer would be nice, I would be happy now if you only answer this question with a simple yes or no answer. I've asked this in several different ways at several different times and you have never given an answer, please, please do it now.

"Western Imperialism" entirely misses the point, as I think I've covered in a lot of depth by now.
 

vimothy

yurp
I've pointed out that you cannot say that Western Imperialism has not exacerbated and strengthened the ranks of Islamism. Once again, do you disagree with this?

I know that it not being controversial doesn't make it true. I believe that it is true though and I thought that your unwillingness to give a straight answer was most likely due to your recognition that of this. You have certainly not argued with it at any point but have mainly tried to imply that my position is that western action is solely responsible for Islamic terrorism and wrestled manfully with that straw-man.

According to you terrorism has two main principle generators: Islamic fundamentalist psychosis and a reaction to Western meddling in the Middle East. So 9/11 was the result of both those things.

In fact 9/11 was the result of twisted jihadists bent on mass-murder. Those twsited jihadists were not made by the actions of Western governments but by Islamist ideologies, and it is upon them that 9/11 should be blamed. You say that you are not rationalising murder but have done so here (to an extent at least). In fact you are missing the point of what causes Islamism and what causes totalitarian movements in general. Stopping "messing" with the Middle East won't be any use, because it acts in its own right. If people choose to hang Jews in Iraq, for instance (to use another of my irrelevant non sequiturs), it is not because they have been brutalised by Western meddling or because they are annoyed at Western meddling or because of the Balfour declaration or anything like that, but because sometimes people choose death. It's that simple.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"Firstly, I've answered all your questions."
At that point you hadn't - and since your answer up to this point is still not an answer in any real sense I would disagree.

Secondly, my questions are crucial to my argument. They relate to the situations which have given rise to Islamism. The fact that you don't see how they're related is puzzling to say the least. For instance, I asked, are people reading the Islamists themselves or at least studies of Islamism - no response. We're discussing the rise of Islamism, it seems pretty obvious how this relates to the discussion. I want to make sure that we have the same understanding of what Islamism is and what it represents. I'm not sure that we do.
I did give a response, you've even highlighted it in the passage below.

No such bomb exists, no such person and no such house.
You cannot possibly mean that literally.

Islamism is a totalitarian political ideology that seeks the Talibanisation of the world. It is not a rational response to a lack of political representation (or whatever), nor is it the natural and obvious outcome of Western intervention in the region (or whatever) but merely the latest fascist mass movement to come out of the Middle East. It's origins lie in the reactionary religious movements in Islamic history and with the crumblling of the Ottoman Empire. Islamists want a return to the glory days of Islamic Empire
I have no problem with that at all (er, I mean I have no problem with your formulation, not that I have no problem with the Talibanisation of the world).

"It would be arguing for the same things even if there had never been any Western presence in the Middle East."
Yes, it would be arguing the same things but who would be listening? My point, as ever, is that more people are listening because of Western presence in the Middle East. Once again, do you or do you not agree with this? Do you honestly not think that previously moderate people in Iraq now who have friends and relatives killed by US or British soldiers are more likely to open their ears to fundamentalists?

Regarding your straw man thing, you entered the debate saying, "wouldn't it be truer to say something along the lines of "after all the years of non-leaving-alone we've done we can't just leave them alone 'cause they might be a bit annoyed"?"
Well, I stand by that, it was simply saying that 9/11 was one step of many, it would be stupid to say that that wasn't part of a (perceived) tit-for-tat.

"You suggested that Islamic terrorism is an expression of annoyance at western "meddling" in Middle Eastern affairs. You said that the US stoked the fires that lead to 9/11."
Exactly, stoked not started.

"Western Imperialism" entirely misses the point, as I think I've covered in a lot of depth by now.
That's a pretty cheap shot considering that I ony used "western imperialism" in that quote as a direct response to and to mean the same thing as your using of it in your previous post.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"According to you terrorism has two main principle generators: Islamic fundamentalist psychosis and a reaction to Western meddling in the Middle East. So 9/11 was the result of both those things."
Got it! That is basically what I said on Thursday or whenever.

"In fact 9/11 was the result of twisted jihadists bent on mass-murder. Those twsited jihadists were not made by the actions of Western governments but by Islamist ideologies, and it is upon them that 9/11 should be blamed."
I agree that it would not have happened without twisted jihadists bent on mass-murder.

"You say that you are not rationalising murder but have done so here (to an extent at least)"
If you mean trying to understand why it happens then yes I am (and so are you obviously), but if you mean trying to say it was ok then I'm not.
If I say to someone that attacking Iraq is likely to lead to more terrorism I'm not saying that that terrorism is ok, I'm simply pointing out what is likely to happen.

"In fact you are missing the point of what causes Islamism and what causes totalitarian movements in general. Stopping "messing" with the Middle East won't be any use, because it acts in its own right. If people choose to hang Jews in Iraq, for instance (to use another of my irrelevant non sequiturs), it is not because they have been brutalised by Western meddling or because they are annoyed at Western meddling or because of the Balfour declaration or anything like that, but because sometimes people choose death. It's that simple"
I'm not missing the point of what causes Islamism - what did I say caused it? When have I even disagreed with your version of the roots of Islamism?
The point I'm making is that it's ranks have been swelled....etc etc

Also, you aren't the only person who's posted on this thread. For example:
Well no, but when you responded to that in the middle of your response to me you can't blame me for taking you to task for putting words in my mouth can you?
 

vimothy

yurp
I'm tied up in meetings all day today, but hope at some point to be able to address what has been discussed (and not) in detail. This thread seems to have been turned into its own 4GW swamp, and that's probably my fault.

Basically I want to do is what I have been trying to do the whole time (without success, it seems), to problematise all these ideas about where terrorism comes from and what feeds it and of course tie in some of these ideas about new methods of warfare and what they represent. I still believe that narratives are of central importance and the real key to understanding the origins and dynamics of terrorism.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Another day, another bombing: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6567329.stm
There was an Iraqi woman writing in the Guardian last week - the title of her piece was something like "The insurgency only exists to end the occupation".
Can anyone explain to me how killing 157 Iraqi civillians, and horrifically injuring God knows how many more, is going to end the presence of American and British troops in Iraq? I can't exactly see it making the respective governments think "Oh, Iraq is doing OK now, time to bring the boys home".
 

Guybrush

Dittohead
Can anyone explain to me how killing 157 Iraqi civillians, and horrifically injuring God knows how many more, is going to end the presence of American and British troops in Iraq?

One of the professed reasons for Bush’s unwavering support for a non-partitioned Iraq, and his refusal to comment on for how long the American troops would stay (‘we stay until the job is done’), was to discourage the insurgents from believing that they could sway the political development. I.e. instil into them the kind of thoughts that you have. The problem is that pretty much everyone, definitely the insurgents, knew that the political situation, both in America and in the Midlle East, was much more fragile than that. When the American public was faced with the horrors of peace-keeping a civil war, the robust support for the Iraq venture turned out a mayfly. I write in imperfect as the Bush administration has changed its rhetoric quite a lot over the last half-year or so. There are also some people thinking that a timetable for withdrawal would encourage the Iraqi goverment to get their act together and stop the sectarian quibbling, as they know that they are doomed once the U.S. troops leave.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
That all makes a lot of sense, but what struck me as ridiculous is the claim that Iraqis - of any persuasion - feel more antagonism towards American troops than Sunni and Shi'ite hardliners do towards each other. I really can't see anyone thinking "It may be a big sacrifice to kill 150 of my countrymen (who happen, coincidentally, to belong to an Islamic sect historically hostile towards mine), but I'm prepared to do that to try and force out the imperialist American scum".

Even if, in your words, the Iraqi coalition government 'gets its act together', do you think it has the wherewithall to do anything about the insurgency/civil war, given that the world's biggest military power seems to be barely capable of holding the country together? Will the insurgents listen to a parliament put together under American auspices - and involving rival factions in the power-sharing - any more than they listen to the Americans themselves?
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Check this out, it's written by John Robb, an military analyst and sometime futurologist. He thinks that state failure, not replacement, is the goal of the mujahideen.

Hmmm, I'm not sure about that. I think a functional state would suit most Sunni insurgents as long as it was an exclusively Sunni-Islamist state.
 

vimothy

yurp
Hmmm, I'm not sure about that. I think a functional state would suit most Sunni insurgents as long as it was an exclusively Sunni-Islamist state.

I agree. What does Brecher say, that there's a base-line agreeent of nihilism, i.e. that the mujahideen groups can only really agree on the fact that they hate what's happened/happening in Iraq and can sort out their bloody disagreements after they've dealt with that.

Oh and Robb has some interesting stuff to say about the gestating Islamic State of Iraq in one of his other posts:

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2007/03/the_virtual_cal.html
 

Guybrush

Dittohead
Vimothy’s latest posts compel me to pimp James Fearon’s article once again:

Could Iraq in 2007 be one of the rare cases in which power sharing successfully ends a civil war? Examining earlier such cases suggests that they have two distinctive features that make power sharing feasible. First, a stable agreement is typically reached only after a period of fighting has clarified the relative military capabilities of the various sides. Each side needs to come to the conclusion that it cannot get everything it wants by violence. For example, the Dayton agreement that divided power among the parties to the Bosnian war required not only NATO intervention to get them to the table and enforce the deal but also more than three years of intense fighting, which had brought the combatants essentially to a stalemate by the summer of 1995. (Even then, the agreement would not have held, and the government would surely have collapsed, if not for a continued third-party guarantee from NATO and effective sovereign control by the Office of the High Representative created under Dayton.)

Second, a power-sharing deal tends to hold only when every side is relatively cohesive. How can one party expect that another will live up to its obligations if it has no effective control over its own members? Attempts to construct power-sharing deals to end civil wars in Burundi and Somalia, for example, have been frustrated for years by factionalism within rebel groups. Conversely, the consolidation of power by one rebel faction can sometimes enable a peace agreement -- as occurred prior to the deal that ended the first war between Khartoum and southern Sudanese rebels in 1972.

Neither of these conditions holds for Iraq. First, there are many significant (and well-armed) Sunni groups that seem to believe that without U.S. troops present, they could win back control of Baghdad and the rest of the country. And there are many Shiites, including many with guns, who believe that as the majority group they can and will maintain political domination of Iraq. Moreover, among the Shiites, Muqtada al-Sadr seems to believe that he could wrest control from his rivals if the United States left. Indeed, if the United States withdraws, violence between Shiite militias will likely escalate further. Open fighting between Shiite militias might, in turn, reaffirm the Sunni insurgents' belief that they will be able to retake power.

Second, both the Sunnis and the Shiites are highly factionalized, at the national political level and at the level of neighborhood militias and gangs. Shiite politicians are divided into at least four major parties, and one of these, Dawa (the party of Prime Minister Maliki), has historically been divided into three major factions. Sadr is constantly described in the U.S. media as the leader of the largest and most aggressive Shiite militia in Iraq, but it has never been clear if he can control what the militias who praise his name actually do. The Iraqi Sunnis are similarly divided among tribes outside of Baghdad, and the organizational anarchy of Sunni Islam seems to make groupwide coordination extremely difficult.

If Maliki had the authority of a Nelson Mandela, and a party organization with the (relative) coherence and dominance of the African National Congress in the antiapartheid struggle, he would be able to move more effectively to incorporate and co-opt various Sunni leaders into the government without fear of undermining his own power relative to that of his various Shiite political adversaries. He would also be better able to make credible commitments to deliver on promises made to Sunni leaders. As it is, intra-Shiite political rivalries render the new government almost completely dysfunctional. Its ministers see their best option as cultivating militias (or ties to militias) for current and coming fights, extortion rackets, and smuggling operations.

Tragically, more civil war may be the only way to reach a point where power sharing could become a feasible solution to the problem of governing Iraq. More fighting holds the prospect of clarifying the balance of forces and creating pressures for internal consolidation on one or both sides, thereby providing stronger grounds for either a victory by one side or a stable negotiated settlement. Should the latter eventually come into view, some sort of regional or international peacekeeping force will almost surely be required to help bring it into being. The Iraq Study Group report is quite right that Washington should be setting up diplomatic mechanisms for such eventualities, sooner rather than later.

In short, there is reason to believe that one of the reasons for the mayhem is that both, loosely defined, sides still think that they are capable of grabbing power: the Sunnis have before; the Shiites have the numerical advantage.
 

vimothy

yurp
Sorry to have been ignoring this thread for the last few days, been engulfed by crisis at work and got attacked by a gang of goons on my way home on Wednesday - haven't had chance to devote much time, but have been working on an extended post (maybe) on the origins of Islamic terrorism.

For now, I'll just describe a particular version of events:

* Islamist rebels, harassed by their native governments (especially Egypt's) travel to Afghanistan, where they mostly watch the Soviet invasion from the sidelines.

* After complaints from other Muslim governments that the Afghans are harboring terrorists, Pakistan compels them to leave.

* They travel to Khartoum and discuss strategies and lay plans. They conclude that their regional enemies (non-salafist muslims and regimes) are being protected by America, hence their lack of revolutionary success.

* Following the assassination of Mubarek, the Sudanese government ejects the salafists.

* Al Qaeda return to Afghanistan where bin Laden issues his fatwa against the US. Al Qaeda seek to remove the US from the Middle East so that they can take control of a strategic Arab counntry. Obviously, bin Laden's eyes are (were?) on Saudi Arabia.
 
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vimothy

yurp
Sorry to hear that - I hope that it was nothing too serious (good use of the word "goon" by the way).

Nah, not too serious - I guess it's kind of funny in its own right - I remember lying on the floor getting kicked and wondering if the footage will be showing up on youtube in the near future ...

They're basically just sad losers as far as I'm concerned, but there's little you can do when someone just walks up to you in the street and starts puching you in the head for no discernable reason whatsoever. Then his mates join in. If they weren't obviously so shit at beating people up then it probably would have been very serious indeed, but even with six to one against I still managed to get away with cuts and bruises, despite being nowt but a skinny weakling.

So, I suppose the imortant question is: Should I be blaming Hayek or RAND for this?
 

Guybrush

Dittohead
Nah, not too serious - I guess it's kind of funny in its own right - I remember lying on the floor getting kicked and wondering if the footage will be showing up on youtube in the near future ...

They're basically just sad losers as far as I'm concerned, but there's little you can do when someone just walks up to you in the street and starts puching you in the head for no discernable reason whatsoever. Then his mates join in. If they weren't obviously so shit at beating people up then it probably would have been very serious indeed, but even with six to one against I still managed to get away with cuts and bruises, despite being nowt but a skinny weakling.

So, I suppose the imortant question is: Should I be blaming Hayek or RAND for this?

Oh my, I hope you are all right. Did they assault you out of the blue? That’s just crazy.
 
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