Obama Does Cairo

[droid]

This is funny

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

This is funny

especially cos everyone interviewed is American (the only Israeli the skinny dude who said Obama cares about Muslims & Jews both - was by far the most reasonable). it's hard to see Israelis being that obnoxious, even if only in a don't shit where you live kinda thing.

also lol at the orthodox-ish Trustafarian dude rockin' it Matisyahu style.

 

[scottdisco]

good speech

 

[josef k.]

Peres calls for Palestinian State

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1092140.html


* Mods: Maybe this thread should merge with the Israel/Palestine thread?

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Peres calls for Palestinian State

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1092140.html

what does that mean, tho, really? what power does he actually have? not very much, I think - he's oooold & also, unlike Rabin or even Barak, has roughly zero credibility w/Israelis who don't already agree w/him. I'll wait & see what Netanyahu says on Saturday. tho anyway reaffirming the Road Map in speeches doesn't mean much. More stalling tactics, I'd suspect. the Israelis are smart enough not to take Obama head-on. on the other hand if they make nice & string things along indefinitely he's got so much stuff on his plate...*EDIT* also the Israelis are old hands at exactly those kinds of delay tactics (tho I should note also that at times they've been helped by either Hamas/other fundamentalists or Hizballah launching attacks when more moderate factions were trying to negotiate)

the big difference will be if a Labor government comes into power in the near future while Obama still has a lot of political coin to spend. if I'm Netanyahu I'm just trying to weather the storm for the next ~2 1/2 years until the election cycle gets back into swing & hoping for a more sympathetic President.

 

[polystyle]

After Obama's speech ...

Can we now say that Obama's speech in Cairo may have had an effect on the Lebanon election ?
And tomorrow as well , in the rather large Iran election ?

Can't take much away from the man's timing ... and sense of catching which way the wind blows .

 

[vimothy]

Can we now say that Obama's speech in Cairo may have had an effect on the Lebanon election ?
And tomorrow as well , in the rather large Iran election ?

No.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Can we now say that Obama's speech in Cairo may have had an effect on the Lebanon election?

I'm very dubious of this. & in general highly suspicious attributing the outcomes of foreign elections & other major events to the actions of Western, & specifically American, politicians rather than the actual people in those countries. an effect perhaps, but not a major one & certainly not decisively - the election turned entirely on the Christian swing vote.

And tomorrow as well , in the rather large Iran election?

this, on the other hand, I find to be slightly more plausible, if only b/c the U.S. (and Israel) is more directly engaged with Iran. still it will be the Iranians who decide things, not one Obama speech.

Kind of surprised that the Iranian elections haven't received more attention here in the U.S.

 

[droid]

I'm very dubious of this. & in general highly suspicious attributing the outcomes of foreign elections & other major events to the actions of Western, & specifically American, politicians rather than the actual people in those countries.

Except of course when same politicians are rigging the vote!

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Except of course when same politicians are rigging the vote!

but clearly that's not the case in Lebanon. or Iran.

when was the last time this happened, actually? it seems to have gone out of favor since the end of the Cold War.

also no answers re: Barak's offer yet Droid? get on it wasteman!

 

[polystyle]

OK , so Vimothy says flatly 'No' to any Obama effect on the Lebanon vote ,
Padraig says 'an effect perhaps' -but more likely to be the case in Iran.
Fair enough.

Of course, would be interested in what the Lebanese citizens - voters on the streets have to say about it ...

There has ben so much coverage about the Iranian election here in the States,
daily on mulitple channels , CNN has Christian Amonpour in Tehran all week it seems like, media outlets have antenna up.
The old mullahs against the current Iranian PM don't like where he's taken things and are pushing back behind the scenes.

So I disagree - Obama is helping shape these elections -to a small degree or a larger degree we'll just have to see.

 

[vimothy]

I'm sure that some people watched Obama's speech, and that some of those people live in Lebanon. But did it decide the outcome of an election? I doubt it.

Qifa Nabki:

...Far more decisive, in my opinion, seems to have been: (1) the high turnout of Sunnis in Zahle — many of whom came from abroad — coupled with a low turnout of Christians; (2) strong feelings of antipathy towards Hizbullah by the Christians of Beirut who voted decisively for March 14th’s list in the district of Achrafieh; (3) some rare rhetorical blunders by Nasrallah in the past couple of weeks, calling the events of May 7th “a glorious day” for the resistance.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Padraig says 'an effect perhaps' -but more likely to be the case in Iran.

let me be clear that by "an effect" I explicitly meant a negligible one. I am much more in line w/Vim's flat no.

There has ben so much coverage about the Iranian election here in the States

not really, especially relative to what a fairly big deal they are. overshadowed perhaps by North Korea in the international news spotlight.

also, CNN is a total waste of time.

So I disagree - Obama is helping shape these elections -to a small degree or a larger degree we'll just have to see.

how exactly? can you point to anything specific? do you have anything that actually backs that up? beyond vague assertions that it's true, I mean.

 

[polystyle]

All we have are our opinions guys, Padraig ...

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

I suspect much more decisive factors in the Iranian elections will be things like:

-who gets the most support from the clerics
-how happy/unhappy young people, women, etc are w/the status quo
-whether or not the election is rigged

I'm sure if Ahmedinejad is booted many Western journalists & pundits will (with varying degrees of enthusiasm) claim it as a victory for Obama. of course when Lebanon or Iran (or whatever) eventually blows up in his/our face he'll get the blame so I guess he might as well get the undeserved credit now.

 

[vimothy]

Fair enough! I is sceptical is all.

The problem is that you could pluck anything out of the air and call it the result of Obama's speech: terrorist attacks in downtown Baghdad, victory for M14 in Lebanon, victory for Ahmedinejad in Iran, a spike in the price of Brent Crude, Russian sovereign CDS spreads, the birth of a two-headed lamb in Indonesia...

 

[polystyle]

Some Obama effect is different from no Obama effect.
And i mean specifically Obama's effect ( who he is, where he's coming from, the visual portrayed- hyped by the US, the 'West' or not ), not what the 'West wants'.
If one doesn't agree there has been an effect - then we just disagree.
Period.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

All we have are our opinions guys, Padraig ...

speak for yourself.

 

[polystyle]

I WAS speaking for myself , thank you.
But hey man its your thread.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Some Obama effect is different from no Obama effect.
And i mean specifically Obama's effect ( who he is, where he's coming from, the visual portrayed- hyped by the US, the 'West' or not ), not what the 'West wants'.
If one doesn't agree there has been an effect - then we just disagree.
Period.

everything has -some- effect on everything else. the POTUS' effect, regardless of who it is, will naturally be disproportionately large.

that's not what you're saying tho - you're saying specifically that Obama, by his words or actions or both, directly influenced (perhaps decided) the elections in Lebanon & will in Iran as well. this seems very dubious. you offer up no evidence, or even reasoning. as Vim notes it's very easy to point to something & say "that's what caused it!".

But hey man its your thread.

oh for crissakes...