Iranian democracy

[padraig (u.s.)]

Has this been posted yet? Incredible stuff -- account of last night's protests from Fisk:

yeah that is crazy. (also whatever else you want to say about Fisk you can't question his personal courage)

he was talking about regular cops or military?

 

[vimothy]

how are you determining they're good?

The same way you're determining that they're not good, surely -- by thinking about it.

again, who are they good for?

They're good for the insurgent! The same factors that make a mobile phone with a camera a strategic level weapon in Iraq are also in play here. Now, Iran is not America, obv, but still it is vulnerable in similar ways.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

The same way you're determining that they're not good

ambiguous doesn't mean "not good".

They're good for the insurgent! The same factors that make a mobile phone with a camera a strategic level weapon in Iraq are also in play here. Now, Iran is not America, obv, but still it is vulnerable in similar ways.

is this an insurgency now? again, certainly they have benefits on a tactical & strategic level for those who know how to utilize them. to me "good" means you've decided that whatever changes they bring about are also positive, not just their use. also, I'm still unconvinced that those benefits don't cut both ways.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

also I don't think anyone linked anything about this yet. it's only from one source (WaPo via the Cyrus News Agency) but batshit crazy if true. from yesterday:

16 senior members of the IRGC arrested

for "being in contact with members of the Iranian army to join the people's movement"

 

[vimothy]

ambiguous doesn't mean "not good".

Ok, so the same way that you're determining that they're ambiguous:

is this an insurgency now?

Words are metaphors, says the Cheshire Cat, so call em likes you smell em.

In any case, it's not clear to me why the notion that globalisation has affected fundamental changes in the constitutional order of states, in the relations of the citizenry to the state, in the nature of communication and media, etcetera, etcetera, must be an unalloyed good. Sometimes it is good. Like in the way that it is difficult for the Iranian regime to suppress information.

 

[vimothy]

For padraig.

Heard about that IRGC thing on Twitter. Sounds pretty plausible to me.

 

[vimothy]

Twitter is the new fax?

When word of the massacre in Tiananmen Square first reached the University of Michigan, the 250 Chinese students studying there jumped into action: they purchased a fax machine. Daily summaries of Western news accounts and photographs were faxed to universities, government offices, hospitals and businesses in major cities in China to provide an alternative to the government's distorted press reports. The Chinese students traded fax numbers back home along the computer network that links them around the U.S. The fax brigades at Michigan were duplicated on many other campuses. "We want everyone to see that there's blood in the streets," says Sheng-Yu Huang, a chemistry student at the University of California, Berkeley.

Some 40,000 Chinese are studying in the U.S., one of the largest group of foreigners on American campuses. They represent a crucial element in China's hopes for economic modernization, but they have also had firsthand experience with Western political freedoms. All around the U.S. last week, they were in the forefront of protests against the repression in their homeland.

 

[josef k.]

In any case, it's not clear to me why the notion that globalisation has affected fundamental changes in the constitutional order of states, in the relations of the citizenry to the state, in the nature of communication and media, etcetera, etcetera, must be an unalloyed good. Sometimes it is good. Like in the way that it is difficult for the Iranian regime to suppress information.

The political effect of the new media is still unclear. The intensification of spectacular terrorism (along with its cognates: school shootings, etc) is one direct consequence of the expanded videodrome. The "surveillance society" especially central in the UK is another. On the other hand, camera phones and other similar tools destroy the State monopoly on communications - it is hard to imagine now just how tightly the media could be controlled when the primary organs of dissemination with the printing press and the telegraph. In general, smaller groups have become more powerful, at the expense of the state apparatus. This doesn't preclude smaller groups from controlling the state, by controlling the media.

 

[vimothy]

RAND monograph on the IRGC.

Protection Against Soft Coups
A third function of Basij popular training is to deter and defeat “softcoup” attempts within Iran—meaning the formation of dissident intellectual groupings, civil society, and reform-oriented student organizations. As noted earlier, there is an explicit fear among conservative regime figures that reformist press outlets, Western-supported nongovernmental organizations, and liberal intellectuals are conspiring to erode and dismantle the foundations of the Islamic Republic in a manner akin to the “color revolutions” that swept parts of the former Soviet Union in 2003–2005. Basij battalions are seen as a countermobilizing force against this effort, both through their expansive cultural education and indoctrination and also in the form of a visible street presence.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

For padraig.

thanks don't have a lot of time now but looks good I'll have a look later.

Heard about that IRGC thing on Twitter. Sounds pretty plausible to me.

yeah didn't mean it was implausible - more like, WTF? yunno. tho it would also support the idea of an IRGC coup - always purge your own first.

 

[vimothy]

Via HuffPo liveblog:

2:01 AM ET -- Aslan: Rafsanjani calls "emergency" meeting of Assembly of Experts. If true, this is a bombshell. Appearing on CNN last night (video below), Iran expert Reza Aslan reported this:

There are very interesting things that are taking place right now. Some of my sources in Iran have told me that Ayatollah Rafsanjani, who is the head of the Assembly of Experts -- the eighty-six member clerical body that decides who will be the next Supreme Leader, and is, by the way, the only group that is empowered to remove the Supreme Leader from power -- that they have issued an emergency meeting in Qom.

Now, Anderson, I have to tell you, there's only one reason for the Assembly of Experts to meet at this point, and that is to actually talk about what to do about Khamenei. So, this is what I'm saying, is that we're talking about the very legitimacy, the very foundation of the Islamic Republic is up in the air right now. It's hard to say what this is going to go.​

 

[crackerjack]

Via HuffPo liveblog:

fucking hell, rafsanjani's playing for keeps.

mousavi's calling for big demo tomorrow

ahmad's may have been a sleight of hand

 

[craner]

Sarkozy:

“The extent of the fraud is proportional to the violent reaction....It is a tragedy, but it is not negative to have a real opinion movement that tries to break its chains...If Ahmadinejad has really made progress since the last election and if he really represents two thirds of the electorate... why has this violence erupted?”

Better.

 

[vimothy]

Iranian footballers are wearing green arm bands for the game against Korea.

 

[vimothy]

Oops:

The man who leaked the real election results from the Interior Ministry - the ones showing Ahmadinejad coming third - was killed in a suspicious car accident, according to unconfirmed reports, writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan in Tehran.

Mohammad Asgari, who was responsible for the security of the IT network in Iran's interior ministry, was killed yesterday in Tehran.

Asgari had reportedly leaked results that showed the elections were rigged by government use of new software to alter the votes from the provinces.

Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19 million votes, and should therefore be president.

 

[craner]

!!!!

Where'd you get that from?

 

[vimothy]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2009/jun/17/iran-uprising

11am this morning

 

[josef k.]

It seems the crackdown is now in full swing. I can't quite see things getting "back to normal" though.

 

[josef k.]

Removing Khamenei?

2:01 AM ET -- Aslan: Rafsanjani calls "emergency" meeting of Assembly of Experts. If true, this is a bombshell. Appearing on CNN last night (video below), Iran expert Reza Aslan reported this:

There are very interesting things that are taking place right now. Some of my sources in Iran have told me that Ayatollah Rafsanjani, who is the head of the Assembly of Experts -- the eighty-six member clerical body that decides who will be the next Supreme Leader, and is, by the way, the only group that is empowered to remove the Supreme Leader from power -- that they have issued an emergency meeting in Qom.


Now, Anderson, I have to tell you, there's only one reason for the Assembly of Experts to meet at this point, and that is to actually talk about what to do about Khamenei. So, this is what I'm saying, is that we're talking about the very legitimacy, the very foundation of the Islamic Republic is up in the air right now. It's hard to say what this is going to go.

VIA

 

[josef k.]

Rafsanjani vs. Khamenei?