hmg
Victory lap
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4360260.ece
Russian tactics ‘could explode into full war with Nato’
Deborah Haynes Defence Editor
Published 1 minute ago
Tensions with Russia could spill over into all-out conflict that would pose an “existential threat to our whole being”, Britain’s top military commander in Nato warned today.
General Sir Adrian Bradshaw said President Putin could use ambiguous warfare and classic Soviet-style brinkmanship to seize Nato territory and change Europe’s borders.
“The threat from Russia and the risk it brings of a miscalculation resulting in a strategic conflict, however unlikely we see it as being right now, represents an existential threat to our whole being,” General Bradshaw, the deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said.
The warning, made in a speech at the Royal United Services Institute, follow remarks from Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, about the threat to European stability posed by an emboldened Russia in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine.
General Bradshaw, a former director of British special forces, said that a new strategy being used by the Kremlin posed two particular dangers.
The first was so-called hybrid warfare, using un-uniformed soldiers of unknown nationality backed by pro-Russian propaganda on television, radio and over the internet to distort reality and make it harder for Western governments to know who is calling the shots.
“The resulting ambiguity [makes] collective decisions relating to the appropriate responses more difficult,” General Bradshaw said.
He was referring to the need for all 28 Nato members to act collectively before any decision can be taken by the alliance – a core principal of Nato. If certain countries are not convinced of a particular, ambiguous threat, they might not support action to counter the danger, playing into Russia’s hands.
“Secondly, the danger that Russia might believe that the large scale conventional forces which she has shown she can generate at very short notice as we saw in the snap exercise that preceded the tak-over of Crimea could in future be used not only for intimidation and coercion but potentially to seize Nato territory,” General Bradshaw said.
“After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity. This use of so-called escalation dominance was of course a classic Soviet technique.”
Russian conducted large-scale military “exercises” close to the border it shares with Ukraine before the unrest broke out between pro-Russian separatists - which Nato believe included in their ranks actual Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms – and the Kiev government.
This resulted in the takeover of Crimea and the eruption of conflict across eastern Ukraine. Ending the violence, will likely see pro-Russian forces keep the territory that they have gained, creating a so-called “frozen conflict” that is in Moscow’s favour.
General Bradshaw’s remarks referred to the same kind of tactics being used, for example against one of the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, like Ukraine, have Russian-speaking minorities. Unlike Ukraine, however, they are also members of Nato. This means that an attack on one of these countries should trigger a military response from the whole alliance.
This is a well-understood concept for conventional warfare involving tanks and bullets and clearly identifiable soldiers. It becomes less certain when ambiguous techniques are deployed, the water is muddied, and Nato leaders are not sure who is the enemy.
Russian tactics ‘could explode into full war with Nato’
Deborah Haynes Defence Editor
Published 1 minute ago
Tensions with Russia could spill over into all-out conflict that would pose an “existential threat to our whole being”, Britain’s top military commander in Nato warned today.
General Sir Adrian Bradshaw said President Putin could use ambiguous warfare and classic Soviet-style brinkmanship to seize Nato territory and change Europe’s borders.
“The threat from Russia and the risk it brings of a miscalculation resulting in a strategic conflict, however unlikely we see it as being right now, represents an existential threat to our whole being,” General Bradshaw, the deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said.
The warning, made in a speech at the Royal United Services Institute, follow remarks from Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, about the threat to European stability posed by an emboldened Russia in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine.
General Bradshaw, a former director of British special forces, said that a new strategy being used by the Kremlin posed two particular dangers.
The first was so-called hybrid warfare, using un-uniformed soldiers of unknown nationality backed by pro-Russian propaganda on television, radio and over the internet to distort reality and make it harder for Western governments to know who is calling the shots.
“The resulting ambiguity [makes] collective decisions relating to the appropriate responses more difficult,” General Bradshaw said.
He was referring to the need for all 28 Nato members to act collectively before any decision can be taken by the alliance – a core principal of Nato. If certain countries are not convinced of a particular, ambiguous threat, they might not support action to counter the danger, playing into Russia’s hands.
“Secondly, the danger that Russia might believe that the large scale conventional forces which she has shown she can generate at very short notice as we saw in the snap exercise that preceded the tak-over of Crimea could in future be used not only for intimidation and coercion but potentially to seize Nato territory,” General Bradshaw said.
“After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity. This use of so-called escalation dominance was of course a classic Soviet technique.”
Russian conducted large-scale military “exercises” close to the border it shares with Ukraine before the unrest broke out between pro-Russian separatists - which Nato believe included in their ranks actual Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms – and the Kiev government.
This resulted in the takeover of Crimea and the eruption of conflict across eastern Ukraine. Ending the violence, will likely see pro-Russian forces keep the territory that they have gained, creating a so-called “frozen conflict” that is in Moscow’s favour.
General Bradshaw’s remarks referred to the same kind of tactics being used, for example against one of the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, like Ukraine, have Russian-speaking minorities. Unlike Ukraine, however, they are also members of Nato. This means that an attack on one of these countries should trigger a military response from the whole alliance.
This is a well-understood concept for conventional warfare involving tanks and bullets and clearly identifiable soldiers. It becomes less certain when ambiguous techniques are deployed, the water is muddied, and Nato leaders are not sure who is the enemy.
