Still holding to my call, think the exit polls are underestimating the Tory vote even though they are being kind to them (in comparison to previous polls).
We finished canvassing at 9 tonight in the Vale. It was upbeat, but I still think that Cairns will swing it by a few hundred votes. I think Jo Stevens in Cardiff Central will win against a collapsed Lib Dem vote (which was based on the student vote in Cathays) as well as Jo being a very strong candidate (Chris Elmore in the Vale is - how can I put this kindly? - not as strong). Cardiff North is the closest marginal in Wales, but I think Mari Williams might squeak it. If Jo and Mari lose, Labour are surely fucked. Another interesting seat is Brecon, loyally Lib Dem but facing a serious threat from the Tories.
UKIP up to second in Sunderland South. Lib Dems destroyed. Labour up.
This matches my prediction in that: UKIP will gain a lot of votes, but come second or third without gaining any (or many) seats. If they start beating Tories like this in a uniform way, though, then a whole different picture emerges, which doesn't match my predicition at all. Horrible result for the Lib Dems, as they lose their deposit.
I put my beef in red wine in at 10 (Keith Floyd recipe from 1982) which should be ready by midnight, when the results start coming in thick and fast. I'll be here, comrades. Unless I collapse in a mess of exhaustion, food, booze and fags.
Fuck, who knows? It's worrying. Sturgeon has been magnificent, I have to say. I don't like her. I don't like nationalists, full stop. But, as I said, I have never seen such an effective campaign in my lifetime since Blair in 1997. I am too young to remember Thatcher in '88.
At the moment, it seems that UKIP secret votes are surging into Tory and Labour votes, but also adding up to the previous non-voter tally in a high turn-out. So I think UKIP are doing better than I expected, without adding seats, but slashing (I reckon) the Tory vote mostly.
Tories rising, though, despite UKIP surge. This does somewhat confirm my "silent vote" hunch, although I did predict a UKIP surge towards Tory. In fact UKIP are scoring big 7000-8000 chunk votes. No seats, though, and still reckon Farage will lose, which will ultimately damage UKIP.
It's weird and worrying that school children love Farage and Boris. Or maybe it's obvious. Mind you, with 5 year fixed parliaments, and current moves to reduce voting age to 16, current 11 year old Boris and Farage fans will be voting in the next election. Am I being paranoid?