UK Election non-frenzy

[Patrick Swayze]

http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2015/05/08/john-lanchester/episode-21-charge-of-the-light-brigade/

http://survation.com/snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/

Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt:
CON 37%
LAB 31%
LD 10
UKIP 11
GRE 5
Others (including the SNP) 6%
Which would have been very close to the final result.

We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.

So rather than being a problem with polling methodology, the problem is with the pollsters' herd mentality and risk averse desire to reaffirm an existing narrative.

 

[droid]

The xenophobia is the important bit, not the religion. Orange Unionism is inherently tribalist and sectarian - not just against Catholics, against anyone who threatens the territory of the colonial. Its a pretty much universal sentiment in settler societies afaict (just look at Australia), and a group which defines itself through aggressive religious and ethnic nationalism is never going to be immigrant friendly.

In that respect, I doubt the DUP will ever do anything to combat racism, as racism is a fundamental part of their political and cultural identity (EDIT - which makes them far worse than UKIP in many respects, a threat which is thankfully limited by geographical constraints).

 

[trza]

Politico "...pollsters grope for answers."

 

[datwun]

What a fucking disaster. 5 years is plenty of time to lock in major, irreversible changes. Exit from from EU and Scottish independence are now eminently possible if not probable. TPP will undermine the whole social basis of the NHS and tie any future government's hands in dealing with trans-national corporations. House prices are going to continue flying into the stratosphere and London's pretty much doomed to go the way of New York now - a playground for rich people. 12 billion in benefit cuts are going to kill people, simple as.

Any lines of flight out of this? Or is this just the UK permanently fucked?

 

[IdleRich]

Is it not possible that people who were polled lied? I get the impression that people who said that they were gonna vote other than Tory actually voted Tory. How do polls deal with that? Presumably they just compile the data they have, ok they scale up or make other adjustments but if the sample they base it on is dishonest then what?
Maybe if it's happened before you can make adjustments to the score (move 10% to the right for lying Tories) but if it's never happened before then how can you design that adjustment?

 

[hucks]

http://survation.com/snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/



So rather than being a problem with polling methodology, the problem is with the pollsters' herd mentality and risk averse desire to reaffirm an existing narrative.

Not buying that. That's the only poll they did that worked. They also used that method and gave labour a bigger lead.

Edit: hang on, got that bit wrong. That was a different poll. So maybe there's something there. Anyway.

I think there's a thing with how you weight certainty to vote. According to the polls, turnout was going to be high 60s, but it was mid 60s. Likely they overestimated the likelihood of young people voting within that substantially.

Also in shy Tories. Why weren't they shy in the exit poll?

 

[IdleRich]

Yeah I wondered that last thing too.

 

[Patrick Swayze]

Is it not possible that people who were polled lied? I get the impression that people who said that they were gonna vote other than Tory actually voted Tory. How do polls deal with that? Presumably they just compile the data they have, ok they scale up or make other adjustments but if the sample they base it on is dishonest then what?
Maybe if it's happened before you can make adjustments to the score (move 10% to the right for lying Tories) but if it's never happened before then how can you design that adjustment?

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/polit...n-polls-is-great-fun-say-voters-2015050898136

/

I always hear it said that Lord Ashcroft is known for his non-partisanship but what is that based on? Don't want to stray into conspiracies (but here goes anyway)... I guess it benefitted the Tories for someone to be continually publishing polls that (possibly) instilled a degree of complacency in the Labour campaign?

 

[hucks]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/polit...n-polls-is-great-fun-say-voters-2015050898136

/

I always hear it said that Lord Ashcroft is known for his non-partisanship but what is that based on? Don't want to stray into conspiracies (but here goes anyway)... I guess it benefitted the Tories for someone to be continually publishing polls that (possibly) instilled a degree of complacency in the Labour campaign?

I sort of get this but he wasn't the only one - so was it an industry wide conspiracy? I guess he was the only one polling the marginals, and they were generally good news for Labour according to him, which was universally not borne out in reality.

 

[Patrick Swayze]

Yeah I don't actually think it was a conspiracy I suppose I'm just interested why it's taken as read that Lord Ashcroft is so unbiased.

Is there a specific reason or is it just that it'd be really obvious if you tried to manipulate polling data?

 

[hucks]

This is interesting

 

[craner]

I don't know the details of polling techniques, but it seemed obvious that there was a large number of people undecided until the last minute, so it was a question of judging how that undecided (or maybe undeclared) vote would actually fall. I got the impression that the undecided were not Labour or left-leaning, and I felt it would come down on the Tory side. UKIP actually did very well, 13% of the overall vote compared to 7% for the SNP. But look at the seat tally. I have to admit that that does destroy the argument for first past the post, which I used to defend. I didn't really expect the Lib Dems to be punished that badly.

 

[craner]

The Tories used the Liam Byrne note to fine effect. That was such an own goal it's almost like Byrne was a Tory mole all along and that note was a final, triumphant, gratuitous act of sabotage.

 

[baboon2004]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/08/lynton-crosby-wedge-politics-general-election-tories quite interesting on the issue of why the polls misled

 

[griftert]

Yeah I wondered that last thing too.

Shy Tories will be the ones who say 'I don't know' when asked who they're going to vote for. You can't say that walking out after having cast your vote.

 

[Leo]

balls and pickles both out, a loss for all snickering americans watching from afar.

 

[hucks]

Shy Tories will be the ones who say 'I don't know' when asked who they're going to vote for. You can't say that walking out after having cast your vote.

Of course, yes, you're right. Also I read yesterday that the exit poll is an actual secret ballot - you fill out a form and drop it in the box, so it really is a replica of the actual vote.

 

[IdleRich]

So it's that bit more anonymous. But you would have thought that other polls tried to replicate the actual one as much as possible too wouldn't you?

 

[Leo]

http://www.factmag.com/2015/05/12/chuka-umunna-mp-used-to-be-a-uk-garage-dj/

 

[datwun]

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ruption-orders-david-cameron?CMP=share_btn_fb

Fucking hell.

The aim is to catch not just those who spread or incite hatred on the grounds of gender, race or religion but also those who undertake harmful activities for the “purpose of overthrowing democracy”.

They would include a ban on broadcasting and a requirement to submit to the police in advance any proposed publication on the web and social media or in print. The bill will also contain plans for banning orders for extremist organisations which seek to undermine democracy or use hate speech in public places, but it will fall short of banning on the grounds of provoking hatred.

...

Cameron will tell the NSC: “For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens: as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone. It’s often meant we have stood neutral between different values. And that’s helped foster a narrative of extremism and grievance."

this is some very, very fucked up stuff.