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for sure as it stands now it seems there'd need to be some relevant major development external to the war itself - which is certainly possible - to get both sides to an official negotiation table sooner rather than later, and barring that a bitter protracted conflict seems quite likely

ask him if he can maybe source someone who isn't basically an official Russian propaganda shill (and also preferably not a virulently racist, anti-Semitic, xenophobe, etc)

of course I guess it depends if you think that those minimal objectives are worth what they've paid for them especially in relation to their much more grandiose original objectives as you'd surely think minimal objectives could have been achieved without faceplanting into Kyiv, getting...

the one caveat I see is that maybe they think they can just hold on until Trump/DeSantis whoever drastically cuts aid but even leaving aside that none of that is guaranteed, anything short of a triumphant march into Kyiv would be a huge embarrassment to expend this much blood and treasure...

by literally any other standard, including the goals Russian leadership had at the beginning of the war, it's an unmitigated disaster Russia is running out of both soldiers and equipment, recruiting stations are getting shot up and firebombed, Russians who can have fled in droves etc etc

I mean sure, if your criteria is avoiding total collapse and comprehensive ejection from all of Ukraine, including the parts they've occupied since 2014 then yes, Russia has cleared that lowest of bars

please let us know if you get answer because I would very interested in hearing an even remotely coherent argument for how Russia is "winning" or even just not doing terribly compared to its initial goals ask him how a bloody quagmire, huge expenditure for virtually no gain, and global...

meanwhile, in more evidence that it has nothing to do with protecting children and everything to do with 1) winning and 2) policing queer bodies/reinforcing a gender binary multiple states that either already have banned or are considering bans on gender-affirming care for trans minors allow...

it is truly wild that the think tank ideologues who actually craft this stuff are happy to go on record and be like "yeah we don't actually give a shit about any of this, we just need some fearmongering tactic that still works" I can't remember anything else like it it would be like if Lee...

in case anyone was still unclear on whether or not the assault on trans people has been entirely concocted by right-wing strategists in order to galvanize their base - rather than yunno, bc they actually care about the well-being of children - here are those strategists describing in their own...

there isn't one. it's basically "they haven't yet been unceremoniously booted out of the much smaller country they thought they could steamroll".

I agree with most of that. I would note that even with Russia's seriously diminished position post-USSR, Russian leadership has pursued the same traditional concerns - access to year round ports (Sevastopol), expansion, regional hegemony - as well as global influence via traditional means with...

we get into speculation here, but I have to think that just as Russian advances would harden Western resolve, serious enough Ukrainian advances would increase the likelihood of Western pressure on Ukraine to negotiate, specifically because of the potential for such a crisis. Obviously Zelensky...

I think people often seriously underestimate the extent to which foreign policy decisions, and wars especially, are driven by domestic political concerns that's actually one of the best strategies for a weaker or isolated power to divide (et impera) a stronger opponent, or coalition of...

and I assume that this the reason they're still fighting, as well an inability to abandon sunk costs for domestic political reasons

it does seem absolutely fucking crazy to me say that Russia is winning, by any stretch or definition of "winning" "not losing" I could see gambling that if Russian leadership's resolve to fight outlasts Western leadership's resolve to supply Ukraine, they can still salvage a victory of sorts...

and yes

yes, well

I don't remember exactly, some military analyst at the time or even shortly before the invasion I think I want to say it was tied in with demographics (Russia's are bad, like most of Europe), economic dependence on fossil fuels, etc I'm not saying it's true/not - I have no idea - but it would...

a surprisingly poor performance by vimothy (perhaps illustrating the difficulty of expanding gnomic one-line utterances into actual positions) we went through all this realpolitik biz fairly thoroughly last year shortly after the initial invasion if you go further back you can find me...