Summary The Sri Lankan government has rejected the Tamil Tigers' unilateral cease-fire and instead launched a major military offensive that could lead to the rebels losing their remaining positions in the Jaffna Peninsula, including strategically important Elephant Pass. Sri Lankan troops are likely to push the Tigers into the jungle, changing the conflict's nature from a conventional war to a guerrilla war. With this change, the government forces probably will fail to eliminate the LTTE's armed resistance. The rebel forces might not be in the best shape now, but the government's desire to quickly end the conflict by military means will not succeed.Analysis The Sri Lankan government has rejected an offer by the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to extend a unilateral cease-fire until Feb. 24. Instead, the Sri Lankan military continued a major military offensive on the Jaffna Peninsula in the north, recapturing nearly all territory lost to the LTTE in fierce fighting last year, according to the British paper The Independent. Government forces are gearing up for a final offensive to push the LTTE from Elephant Pass, a strategic rebel-held land corridor linking the peninsula with the rest of Sri Lanka. Despite talk of a truce and attempted intermediation by a peace team from Norway, the Sri Lankan government is clearly seeking a military solution to the 18-year ethnic war. With overwhelming forces poised to launch land and air strikes on rebel positions, the military is likely to drive the LTTE back into the jungles. The government victory will be short-lived, however, as the rebels will revert to guerrilla and terrorist tactics better suited to their abilities. Since 1983, the LTTE have been fighting for an ethnic Tamil homeland in the north and east of the predominately Sinhalese Sri Lanka. The years of fighting have left more than 64,000 people dead and hampered economic growth and development in Sri Lanka. In April 2000, LTTE forces overran the strategic military base at Elephant Pass, pushing forward to capture much of the Jaffna Peninsula, which had been under nominal Tamil control until 1995. Before recapturing the city of Jaffna, which has significant historical and cultural meaning for the Tamils, government forces received an influx of new weapons, stopping the Tigers short of their goal. Government and Tiger forces have since hunkered down in a trench-warfare campaign, with each side gaining and losing ground alternately. Better-armed and prepared for conventional warfare, the Sri Lankan military now appears to have regained the upper hand in the conflict on the peninsula. Sri Lankan infantry troops are about 10 miles from the edge of the main rebel base at Elephant Pass. Currently the military deploys light and medium tanks, field and medium artillery, and 16 multiple barrel rocket launchers (MLRS) from the Czech Republic. The military also has nearly unopposed air superiority, flying ground-attack missions with Israeli-made Kfir and Russian-made MiG combat planes. Click here to see a map of Sri Lanka.The Tigers counter with Chinese-made 122mm and 152mm artillery pieces, as well as MLRS, mortars - mostly 81mm - and land mines that inflict significant casualties on government troops. Gradually, Tamil rebels accrued weapons in ambushes or when pushing back government troops. Tigers keep some tanks and various rockets in reserve as well. If government troops retake the pass, rebel forces on the peninsula will be cut off from their supply routes to Sri Lanka's interior. The loss of the Jaffna Peninsula will further jeopardize the Tiger's food and armaments supply route, as the peninsula is the closest point to sympathetic ethnic Tamils in India. While a victory in Elephant Pass and the Jaffna Peninsula will boost the beleaguered government and its military forces, it will be short-lived. Far from ending the armed conflict, the fighting will simply shift from the current conventional war, which heavily favors government troops, to the more traditional jungle war that favors the Tigers. The government seems to have misinterpreted the Tigers' truce offer as an indicator of weakness. Though the LTTE forces apparently need time for regrouping after the last heavy battles, there are no signs that their number or morale is declining. The latest losses of dozens of men, as reported by the government, cannot drastically decrease the strength of the guerrillas. Nor has there been any news of desertion, even in minor numbers. All LTTE cadre comprise unpaid volunteers who are prepared for self-sacrifice in the name of creating an independent Tamil statehood. With rare exception, Tigers prefer to take cyanide rather than surrender, according to Lake House, Sri Lanka's news agency, on Jan. 18. As Sri Lankan troops beat Tamil separatist rebels back into the jungles, the Tigers will launch guerrilla-type operations, combined with terrorist actions all around the country. The government will answer with counter-insurgency operations and heavy aerial bombardments. In this type of war, however, the government forces are unlikely to continue enjoying success or to eliminate the LTTE's armed resistance. The army's responsibilities are already stretched: Half an army is defending the Jaffna Peninsula and fighting rebels while the other half guards strategic positions all around the country. The physical topography and size of most of the war theater consists of jungle, precluding the possibility of eliminating LTTE armed cadre. With the exception of a major sea base in Mullaittivu, all major LTTE bases are scattered throughout a large jungle area of about 5,000 square miles, with heavy woods, bad roads and a sparse population. This region is ideal for guerrilla forces and presents serious difficulties for motorized and infantry units of a conventional army. Even if Sri Lankan troops managed to occupy LTTE-held urban centers of the littoral south of the Jaffna Peninsula, the rebels can retreat into this interior jungle region. It affords safe haven and a prime area from which to mount surprise incursions. In addition to jungle warfare, however, the Tigers rely on terrorist tactics to advance their cause. According to Jane's Defense Weekly, the LTTE has the world's highest suicide bombing rate, with 62 percent of such cases involving the LTTE between 1980 and 2000. Out of the 271 suicide bombings in the world between 1980 and 2000, the LTTE carried out 168. With the government rejecting the Tigers' cease-fire and the latter suffering setbacks on battlefield, the LTTE is likely to expand its terrorist activities. The annihilation or expulsion of Tigers from these jungles and physical occupation of the interior by the government forces would require a considerable increase in the number of government troops. The current ratio of 10 to 1 in favor of the army - roughly 110,000 government troops and 11,000 guerrillas - may be sufficient for conventional war, but insufficient for finding and destroying Tigers in the jungle. Nor would the number be adequate to blockade the Tigers, as the area covered would be too large. In general, the rebel fighters are much more determined than Sri Lankan soldiers. Sri Lanka's Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, who advocates a hard line against the LTTE, plans to establish a new volunteer brigade to boost the military campaign against the Tigers. But enthusiasm is not high among Sinhalese youth. Students at some universities have taken to wearing black-and-white bands protesting the government's rejection of the rebels' cease-fire, according to The Lanka Academic on Jan. 25. In contrast, Tigers continue to enjoy support among ordinary Tamils on the island. Many still feel oppressed by the central government and Sinhalese majority and see Tigers as their only defenders. Parliament has yet to debate the promise to give broad autonomy to the Tamils, on which the current Sri Lankan president rose to power last year. The broad sympathies and support given to Tigers by a few million Tamils is a guarantee and indicator that their armed struggle will continue no matter what success the government achieves on the battlefield. The government appears prepared to launch a final offensive to drive the Tigers off the Jaffna Peninsula. The most likely consequence will be the change in the armed conflict from conventional war to a guerrilla one, with an increased terrorist campaign by Tigers. Under such changes, government forces would have little chance at winning not just a military operation but also the whole war.