I don't think credible accusations of child rape will bring him down, for various reasons.
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I don't think credible accusations of child rape will bring him down, for various reasons.
IdleRich
IdleRich
To me it's kinda obvious that Trump only values women for their looks and perceived desirability - so he can use them as a kinda of scoring system when competing with other men. So when he compliments his daughter he only has the vocabulary of going on about what a stunner etc not that he doesn't want to fuck her, he probably does, it's just that he doesn't have the brains to disguise that by saying other things about her cos he doesn't know other ways in which women can be good.
Leo
Well-known member
in some ways, yes, but there are definite differences.
in general terms, republicans are for smaller government (aka, fewer social services and business/environmental regulations), lower taxes (since the government will need less revenue if it offers fewer social services), pro business, against providing "favoritism" to minorities, and (bringing in a touch of libertarianism) a belief that everyone should fend for themselves instead of "relying on government handouts".
in general terms, democrats believe the government can do good for society and gravitate towards a larger government that provides services, supports programs that help minorities, also one that protects people via business/environmental regulations.
no reason why powerful rich folks can't exist on either side. bill gates and George Soros donate millions to causes typically viewed as falling on the democratic side.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I see what you're saying but yeah, the filthy old cunt blatantly wants to fuck her.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I wonder if any studios are planning on a new adaptation of Dune for film or TV in the near future? You could have great fun making the Baron Harkonnen look as much like Trump as you could get away with.
Sanders is fairly popular. The dems need to mobilise new voters and enthusiasm to win. Corbyn almost did it against huge odds. The centrist strategy of vying for middleground swing voters is doomed to fail. In that approach, the more radical candidates will fare better.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I recall seeing opinion polls during the candidate races three years ago suggesting Sanders would have comfortably beaten Trump - though of course polls also predicted Clinton would beat Trump, Brexit would be rejected and that Labour faced a wipeout in 2017...
I honestly think he'd stand a decent chance. Trump has surely alienated many people who voted for him on the basis of "Oh well let's try someone a bit different" rather than because of any deep-seated support. His popularity among his own base is going from strength to strength but each of them only gets one vote, after all. One of the big things against Sanders is his age but Trump is only five years younger and is surely in far worse shape physically, to say nothing of mentally.
OTOH the Russian spin machine won't have stood still in those four years and will no doubt have a whole load of new tricks to try out.
Leo
Well-known member
last night's democratic debate was underwhelming, tough call whether any of them could beat trump one-on-one on the debate stage or at the ballot box. the previous nights debate featured the moderates questioning the policies of the progressives, and it made for a much more interesting debate because it's a conversation the party needs to have: how far left can it go without alienating voters in a general election.
Biden remains the front runner largely on name ID and association with Obama. while he did better in last night's debate than in the first, he has definitely lost a step and seem to lose focus/run out of stream. he's comfort food for the middle but sounds out of step with 2019.
I love Bernie because he is one of the few politicians who truly speaks from the heart, totally believes what he says and has been saying it for decades. his problem is his plans are inspirational but largely unrealistic. there's a reason why he has very little actual passed legislation to show for all his years as a senator: he pushes people in the right direction but in the end rarely has the actual votes to get bills passed, why is there an reason to think that would change if he were president? he will not likely get the nomination, and if he does, will get creamed in a general election. as much as I might agree with some of his policies, the general US voting population will never vote for a democratic socialist, period, end of story. luv the guy but it ain't happening.
was never a big Elizabeth warren fan but she's run a very good campaign and might not be as scary to middle America as she's been in the past. her other big advantage over sanders is support from African-americans, which will be important this year. the issue with her is she's a policy wonk and can get too far into the weeds for the average voter. she's great when she balances that with more inspirational, positive rhetoric.
there is currently no perfect democratic candidate, all of them have concerning weaknesses. perhaps one of them will blossom and that will change. I initially thought Kamala Harris would take off more, and she got a bump after the first debate, but she came off muddled and defensive last night. her healthcare plan tried to be both progressive and moderate, and it was embarrassing to see her try to explain it. one surprise is how Beto o'rourke turned out to be the hothouse flower, the purported young savior of the party whose time in the national spotlight quickly revealed his flaws.
who knows...people currently seem lethargic about trump's daily outrageous behavior but maybe they are secretly reaching their limit and will be ready to turn the page on him in November 2020 regardless of who is up agains him, just wish the dems had a clear star. in this campaign cycle, they have a half-dozen strong vice presidential candidates but lacking for top of the ticket.
TL;DR: decent chance we're screwed for 2020.
Biden remains the front runner largely on name ID and association with Obama. while he did better in last night's debate than in the first, he has definitely lost a step and seem to lose focus/run out of stream. he's comfort food for the middle but sounds out of step with 2019.
I love Bernie because he is one of the few politicians who truly speaks from the heart, totally believes what he says and has been saying it for decades. his problem is his plans are inspirational but largely unrealistic. there's a reason why he has very little actual passed legislation to show for all his years as a senator: he pushes people in the right direction but in the end rarely has the actual votes to get bills passed, why is there an reason to think that would change if he were president? he will not likely get the nomination, and if he does, will get creamed in a general election. as much as I might agree with some of his policies, the general US voting population will never vote for a democratic socialist, period, end of story. luv the guy but it ain't happening.
was never a big Elizabeth warren fan but she's run a very good campaign and might not be as scary to middle America as she's been in the past. her other big advantage over sanders is support from African-americans, which will be important this year. the issue with her is she's a policy wonk and can get too far into the weeds for the average voter. she's great when she balances that with more inspirational, positive rhetoric.
there is currently no perfect democratic candidate, all of them have concerning weaknesses. perhaps one of them will blossom and that will change. I initially thought Kamala Harris would take off more, and she got a bump after the first debate, but she came off muddled and defensive last night. her healthcare plan tried to be both progressive and moderate, and it was embarrassing to see her try to explain it. one surprise is how Beto o'rourke turned out to be the hothouse flower, the purported young savior of the party whose time in the national spotlight quickly revealed his flaws.
who knows...people currently seem lethargic about trump's daily outrageous behavior but maybe they are secretly reaching their limit and will be ready to turn the page on him in November 2020 regardless of who is up agains him, just wish the dems had a clear star. in this campaign cycle, they have a half-dozen strong vice presidential candidates but lacking for top of the ticket.
TL;DR: decent chance we're screwed for 2020.
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Sanders policies have failed because of lack of support from the dem establishment. If they manage to take both houses in 2020 and he was elected, would the dems really vote against his bills? Possible, but I don't think so.
The key here is finding someone who can galvanise new voters, win in particular swing states and destroy Trump in debates. Maybe Im wrong but I think Sanders is the only one who ticks all those boxes.
Trump's approval rating translates to about a -5 in the actual polls. So he is expected to get about 35% as things currently stand. Of course, propoganda, electoral college, voter suppression etc will all play their part.
Ultimately it comes down to this. If Biden or Trump win, we're all dead.
Leo
Well-known member
good points. I'm just extremely skeptical about those same poll numbers holding up a year from now.
there is next to zero chance the dems take the senate in 2020, there just aren't enough republican seats up for reelection where they have any chance this cycle. that means Moscow Mitch McConnell remains senate majority leader and nothing gets done (aka, Obama's second term).
still doubt very much sanders would survive a one-on-one general election run against trump. progressive states like NY and California don't matter. I can't imagine moderate swing state voters embracing the nutty profession who basically wants to make everything free for everyone (which is how the trump campaign will portray him). even if they've grown tired of trump, I think they'd be more likely to stay home than come out in force for sanders. I wish it weren't so.
the 40 or so seats the dems won in the 2018 midterms to take control of the house were almost entirely in purple (moderate) districts, and those candidates won by pushing moderate programs (not medicare for all, free college, etc.). I just find it hard to believe those voters will be comfortable voting for Bernie. then again, they may be so fed up by next November that they're willing to take a chance on anyone against trump.
there is next to zero chance the dems take the senate in 2020, there just aren't enough republican seats up for reelection where they have any chance this cycle. that means Moscow Mitch McConnell remains senate majority leader and nothing gets done (aka, Obama's second term).
still doubt very much sanders would survive a one-on-one general election run against trump. progressive states like NY and California don't matter. I can't imagine moderate swing state voters embracing the nutty profession who basically wants to make everything free for everyone (which is how the trump campaign will portray him). even if they've grown tired of trump, I think they'd be more likely to stay home than come out in force for sanders. I wish it weren't so.
the 40 or so seats the dems won in the 2018 midterms to take control of the house were almost entirely in purple (moderate) districts, and those candidates won by pushing moderate programs (not medicare for all, free college, etc.). I just find it hard to believe those voters will be comfortable voting for Bernie. then again, they may be so fed up by next November that they're willing to take a chance on anyone against trump.
Youve been beaten down! All hope extinguished (I know the feeling).
https://future.fandom.com/wiki/2020_US_Presidential_Election_(Sanders_vs_Trump)
https://future.fandom.com/wiki/2020_US_Presidential_Election_(Sanders_vs_Trump)
A lot can happen between now and then. Economy will probably start to tank next year. Climate nightmare is gonna kick in. Trump has been reduced to his base, and I dont see that picking up again. Hes down about 20 points in some of the key districts he won in swing states last time.
The deciding factors will be democratic turnout and how effectively the GOP can steal the election.
The deciding factors will be democratic turnout and how effectively the GOP can steal the election.
version
Well-known member
Epstein reportedly hoped to develop super-race of humans with his DNA - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/01/jeffrey-epstein-seed-human-race-report