Richard Dawkins
- Thread starter Bangpuss
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IdleRich
IdleRich
But it includes government spending too right? And the government also sets the conditions in which the private traders trade.
Earlier someone said that the Greek government had cooked its books and the citizens were paying for it. You asked what the government cooking the books had to do with the citizens right? I suppose it depends on what "cooking the books" means in this context. But more generally, as Ollie (Mr Tea) said, a member of the government has a bigger say in this balance than any other individual doesn't he/she?
vimothy
yurp
That's not an argument though is it?
If you want to say that the Greek government caused the Greek current account deficit, or caused Greek households to dissave, or caused people to be willing to lend to Greek individuals, or caused people to stop being willing to lend to Greek individuals, then there needs to be some reference to specific things that actually happened. Just saying that the Greek government is larger than any individual Greek doesn't mean anything much in this context, as far as I can see. Probably I'm wrong though, so please explain.
If you want to say that the Greek government caused the Greek current account deficit, or caused Greek households to dissave, or caused people to be willing to lend to Greek individuals, or caused people to stop being willing to lend to Greek individuals, then there needs to be some reference to specific things that actually happened. Just saying that the Greek government is larger than any individual Greek doesn't mean anything much in this context, as far as I can see. Probably I'm wrong though, so please explain.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
OK, so the government made it look like Greece was actually much more credit-worthy than it is. Then when the fraud became apparent and the delicate position of Greece's finances became apparent, domestic and foreign investors realized the risk of a default on the bond's they'd bought was bigger than they thought and would either a) sell the bonds to investors who'd pay less for them (because they're riskier) or b) just ask for their money back up front (does this actually happen?). a) would cause the supply of cheap credit to the Greek treasury to dry up, since anyone lending to Greece will now attach a much higher interest to their loan, while b) will simply eat into the treasury's balance.
So the government now has less money than before and is being lent less money, or is being lent it on ever more expensive terms, due to the positive feedback of ever-diminishing investor confidence. Spending cuts in a country with a large public sector lead to a rise in unemployment, the public spends less too, this leads to general economic stagnation and more unemployment, and so on and so on.
As you correctly pointed out earlier I'm not an economist, not even an amateur one, so I'm perfectly happen to be proven wrong on any point here.
So the government now has less money than before and is being lent less money, or is being lent it on ever more expensive terms, due to the positive feedback of ever-diminishing investor confidence. Spending cuts in a country with a large public sector lead to a rise in unemployment, the public spends less too, this leads to general economic stagnation and more unemployment, and so on and so on.
As you correctly pointed out earlier I'm not an economist, not even an amateur one, so I'm perfectly happen to be proven wrong on any point here.
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bruno
est malade
i'm economically illiterate, but you don't have to be very bright to notice what has happened the last few years, that people are fed up with seeing the richest become ever richer while seeing their quality of life diminish, fed up with a higher tax burden, fed up with a two-tiered justice, fed up with higher food and transportation prices while wages stagnate or fall, life in general is more difficult for anyone who is not wealthy, not just in greece but the world over.
the overwhelming feeling is that banks, corporations and the wealthiest wield a disproportionate influence and can get away with things that the rest of us can't. it has always been like this, but the past few years have been so obscene that people rightly are losing patience.
this is not to absolve the greeks, but this crisis is part of the domino effect of the 2008 crash, and they were helped by creative accounting from investment banks to hide the debt to the eu, for all the tax-dodging and profligacy surely the blame lies not only in greece. also, it's clear that austerity measures destroy the fabric of society before any good comes from them, the difference is that some feel and see the consequences of this while others see statistics and the long view from the comfort of their offices in zürich or whatever. the people who will suffer directly have every right to protest, in my view.
the overwhelming feeling is that banks, corporations and the wealthiest wield a disproportionate influence and can get away with things that the rest of us can't. it has always been like this, but the past few years have been so obscene that people rightly are losing patience.
this is not to absolve the greeks, but this crisis is part of the domino effect of the 2008 crash, and they were helped by creative accounting from investment banks to hide the debt to the eu, for all the tax-dodging and profligacy surely the blame lies not only in greece. also, it's clear that austerity measures destroy the fabric of society before any good comes from them, the difference is that some feel and see the consequences of this while others see statistics and the long view from the comfort of their offices in zürich or whatever. the people who will suffer directly have every right to protest, in my view.
IdleRich
IdleRich
It's not an argument as such but something caused the balance in the account. It seems reasonable to me that the first place you look for the cause is to the people with the biggest influence on it. And if you are a person who has no real influence on that balance you have every right to be aggrieved if you lose your job or benefits or are forced to take a pay-cut becuase of it.
vimothy
yurp
Rich,
1, But you haven't actually established anything--including the fact that the Greek government are to blame or are largely to blame for the Greek current account deficit.
2, In toto, Greece will have a lower standard of living in the future because in toto it had a higher standard of living than it could afford, even without recessions etc. Greek's can of course blame their government for this but it's not the fault of the Greek government, nor was their government the principle beneficiary.
1, But you haven't actually established anything--including the fact that the Greek government are to blame or are largely to blame for the Greek current account deficit.
2, In toto, Greece will have a lower standard of living in the future because in toto it had a higher standard of living than it could afford, even without recessions etc. Greek's can of course blame their government for this but it's not the fault of the Greek government, nor was their government the principle beneficiary.
IdleRich
IdleRich
Who is to blame then?
But the average Greek doesn't walk down the street thinking to himself "I wonder if my country can afford my standard of living" - that is the government's job. The government sets controls that affect people's standard of living - they are now setting them at a level that most people find crushingly low - it's the government that is doing that right?
And of course the government gains because giving its citizens a high standard of living makes them popular and means that they can stay in power. Just as forcing a low standard on them caused the government's collapse.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Exactly. Vimothy, what do you expect the average Greek citizen to do - fight for his right to retire at 65 rather than 60 because it's his duty to keep the country's books balanced?
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
40% of Greek total imports 2005-9 was spent on fighter jets. I think this was probably an elite decision, and not done by referendum. I think it also probably has an effect on the current account deficit, no?
Up to the present, and those fighter jets/other military hardware have still not gone in the current wave of cuts, while people's salaries are being slashed to ribbons. With elections/referendums/any kind of democratic activity in Greece effectively being banned, then the decision to keep these needless purchases is not being made by any more than the small elite that decided they were needed in the first place.
http://www.happensingreece.com/greece-is-taking-loans-to-buy-german-and-french-weapons/
Taking the debts racked up by Greek consumers - why were French and German banks lending money to Greek consumers in the first place? Were they 'subprime' loans that they should have known would not be paid back? Their sole raison d'etre is to make profit, and so with other more obvious avenues of profit exhausted, they moved on to riskier and riskier loans, as will always happen in a system in which potential profit is limited but the desire for it is not (in this case, loans were influenced by false credit agency ratings, but whose fault is that?) - is that true? Seems pretty akin to common-or-garden loan shark behaviour, with the threat of reducing a country to rubble rather than breaking someone's legs. International regulations on responsible lending, whatever they are, clearly have no real weight.
Let's say these same banks were now to start making loans to citizens of a much more impoverished country than Greece in order to generate consumers in the developing world (well, I guess this has been done to an extent with microcredit)? What happens then when these debts can't be repaid?
Up to the present, and those fighter jets/other military hardware have still not gone in the current wave of cuts, while people's salaries are being slashed to ribbons. With elections/referendums/any kind of democratic activity in Greece effectively being banned, then the decision to keep these needless purchases is not being made by any more than the small elite that decided they were needed in the first place.
http://www.happensingreece.com/greece-is-taking-loans-to-buy-german-and-french-weapons/
Taking the debts racked up by Greek consumers - why were French and German banks lending money to Greek consumers in the first place? Were they 'subprime' loans that they should have known would not be paid back? Their sole raison d'etre is to make profit, and so with other more obvious avenues of profit exhausted, they moved on to riskier and riskier loans, as will always happen in a system in which potential profit is limited but the desire for it is not (in this case, loans were influenced by false credit agency ratings, but whose fault is that?) - is that true? Seems pretty akin to common-or-garden loan shark behaviour, with the threat of reducing a country to rubble rather than breaking someone's legs. International regulations on responsible lending, whatever they are, clearly have no real weight.
Let's say these same banks were now to start making loans to citizens of a much more impoverished country than Greece in order to generate consumers in the developing world (well, I guess this has been done to an extent with microcredit)? What happens then when these debts can't be repaid?
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baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
There is no God.
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
What's the latest on protests in Chile, Bruno? I looked for articles recently but couldn't find much (in English) on continuing protests past the end of 2011...
Sectionfive
bandwagon house
Post on the Slog during the week about the Greeks buying German submarines
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/03...double-for-german-subs-helped-to-sink-greece/
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/03...double-for-german-subs-helped-to-sink-greece/
bruno
est malade
the student one is dead, nothing happened. the ex-leaders are/were on a speaking tour of europe, meeting with morin, that kind of thing.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Like atheism but dislike Dawkins? Then you need Atheism+!
Silly name but a decent idea: basically, an atheist movement that focuses more on equality and social justice, and how to use skepticism and rationalism to promote these causes, rather than just being a somewhat trollish boys' club concerned mainly with bashing religion and being unpleasant to women.
Silly name but a decent idea: basically, an atheist movement that focuses more on equality and social justice, and how to use skepticism and rationalism to promote these causes, rather than just being a somewhat trollish boys' club concerned mainly with bashing religion and being unpleasant to women.
