DOOM, or The Official 2016 US Election Thread
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Corpsey
bandz ahoy
Mixed signals coming from the Guardian:
White, working-class and angry: Ohio's left-behind help Trump to stunning win
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-ohio-youngstown-voters
White and wealthy voters gave victory to Donald Trump, exit polls show
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/white-voters-victory-donald-trump-exit-polls
'Far from being purely a revolt by poorer whites left behind by globalisation, who did indeed turn out in greater numbers for the Republican candidate than in 2012, Trump’s victory also relied on the support of the middle-class, the better-educated and the well-off.'
White, working-class and angry: Ohio's left-behind help Trump to stunning win
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-ohio-youngstown-voters
White and wealthy voters gave victory to Donald Trump, exit polls show
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/white-voters-victory-donald-trump-exit-polls
'Far from being purely a revolt by poorer whites left behind by globalisation, who did indeed turn out in greater numbers for the Republican candidate than in 2012, Trump’s victory also relied on the support of the middle-class, the better-educated and the well-off.'
droid
Well-known member
Some polls for Brexit were barely outside the margin of error, and many polls were not wrong at all. IIRC they ran from -4 to +4.
Polls for the last UK GE were the biggest polling error in recent memory.
So we have two incidences of significant polling error - 3 rust belt states in US 2016 and the last UK GE.
Is this a 'consistent' trend?
Maybe we should ask a pollster.
Polls for the last UK GE were the biggest polling error in recent memory.
So we have two incidences of significant polling error - 3 rust belt states in US 2016 and the last UK GE.
Is this a 'consistent' trend?
Maybe we should ask a pollster.
vimothy
yurp
According to CNN:
And,
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/09/p...-white-voters0953AMVideoVideo&linkId=30959635
And,
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/09/p...-white-voters0953AMVideoVideo&linkId=30959635
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
In the 4 hours since you posted this, you've posted polling data 3 times...
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
I can take or leave the rest of the piece, but this one line is great:
'In the final election rallies of Trump in Michigan and Clinton in North Carolina, he was promising voters the return of factories and well-paid jobs while she was repeating kindergarten waffle such as “love trumps hate” and “build bridges not walls”'.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ddle-east-soviet-russia-liberal-a7407431.html
'In the final election rallies of Trump in Michigan and Clinton in North Carolina, he was promising voters the return of factories and well-paid jobs while she was repeating kindergarten waffle such as “love trumps hate” and “build bridges not walls”'.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ddle-east-soviet-russia-liberal-a7407431.html
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
Clinton's speech this afternoon was similarly full of vague bullshit. She should have been begging forgiveness for her arrogance in neglecting Wisconsin etc, whereas she sounded mildly peeved by the result.
IdleRich
IdleRich
But even if it would normally be just a platitude "build bridges not walls" pretty much has a literal meaning here doesn't it? I mean, I don't know if she was planning to build bridges but she was literally planning to not build the wall. Not to defend her tactics, just pointing out that that is something of a cheap shot.
An act surely? I'm guessing that behind closed doors she was distraught. I think she honestly thought it was hers by divine right and has been looking forward to her coronation for the last eight years or so...
Anyone else have a slight grudging admiration for Trump's sheer persistence? Thought not but to keep going so determinedly when all the polls and experts said he had no chance shows a sort of incredible thick-skin. While obviously being extremely thin-skinned about unimportant and childish insults. He kept saying that the polls were wrong but did he know something or was he just blustering along keeping a brave face and hoping for a fluke? I suspect the latter but we'll never know I suppose.
vimothy
yurp
Your argument is missing a step. Data like this is not worthless, but it is easy to spin and even easier to misread, since it involves judgement calls all the way (as you can see from the fact that the Guardian attribute it both to poor whites and to rich whites, whereas CNN attribute it to the minority vote). Just take it with a pinch of salt - which is exactly what most commenters in the media failed to do.
firefinga
Well-known member
Very likely a lot of Sanders supporters didn't vote for Clinton (not necessarily voting for Trump, either). By NOT doing so showing a profound inabilty to understand what politics ultimately is about, namely reaching power.
And sadly, a repetition of the Nader debacle in 2000, bc you could make a strong case "blaming" Nader for finally pushing George W. Bush over the edge.
vimothy
yurp
Very good, impassioned article. When was it published?
firefinga
Well-known member
The "misogyny" thing doesn't interest nobody apart from a buch of oversensitive academics.
IdleRich
IdleRich
I remember reading an article a few years back (I forget who wrote it) by some guy saying that among his friends he had a reputation for always calling elections correctly. He said "How do I do it? Simple, I just look at the polls cos the one that they predict to win always wins". Interesting that that used to be the case (apparently, I haven't checked it) but it feels as though it is very much not the case now. Three major votes in a row (UK GE, Brexit referendum and US Election) where I have sat and watched/listened the votes unfold in a way that has a) pissed me off and b) confounded the majority of the polls.
Admittedly the Brexit one was predicted to be so close that either result could happen without the polls being substantially wrong (as someone pointed out above).
I think, despite the tiny sample - basically just anecdotal evidence - that my main observation is correct though, polls have become much less reliable than they were before. They are trying to find ways to improve them by building in these adjustments with names such as "shy Tories" etc but I have the feeling that people have just started consistently lying to the pollsters, how can they get around that?
Admittedly the Brexit one was predicted to be so close that either result could happen without the polls being substantially wrong (as someone pointed out above).
I think, despite the tiny sample - basically just anecdotal evidence - that my main observation is correct though, polls have become much less reliable than they were before. They are trying to find ways to improve them by building in these adjustments with names such as "shy Tories" etc but I have the feeling that people have just started consistently lying to the pollsters, how can they get around that?
firefinga
Well-known member
Exactly my thoughts today.
firefinga
Well-known member
And basically, Trump is European populist right wing opportunism as it's best (meaning worst).
I'd also like to know how much (anti)social media was working in favor of him, bc in Germany AfD is the party with the most likes and "friends" on facebook. They built a whole alternative reality around their FB presence.
I'd also like to know how much (anti)social media was working in favor of him, bc in Germany AfD is the party with the most likes and "friends" on facebook. They built a whole alternative reality around their FB presence.