At the minute, the failure to arm Ukraine is leading to battlefield gains for Russians. Where will we be if this continues for another 6 months? 15 million Ukrainian refugees will be heading West for a start.
Russia Surrounded
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droid
Well-known member
OK, so your theses is, that if Russia somehow makes a spectacular turnaround in Ukraine, and if they have years, or decades of prosperity to reorient and revitalise their entire economy and increase military spending by a factor of 10 to 15 to compete with NATO forces, whilst also occupying hostile territory in Ukraine, then they will then somehow turnaround and conquer the rest of Europe?
Russia is a threat and Putin is a piece of shit, but this is just utter fantasy.
Russia is a threat and Putin is a piece of shit, but this is just utter fantasy.
droid
Well-known member
This is precisely why there should be a ceasefire, in fact, its why there should have been a ceasefire a year ago.
First off - if Ukraine loses (which we're now discussing as a possibility in a way we ween't a few months ago) it'll be a huge propaganda victory for authoritarian states and a moral crisis for the West which will no doubt be cheered on by the usual shower of cunts and wankers. In this new space, Russia will absolutely push against the boundaries of NATO states, taking advantage of our perceived weakness. Years more disinfo, dodgy money, corruption, undermining, across the whole of the EU but now bolstered by a military victory. Boundary testing in Poland most probably? Idk why you think this can't/won't happen.
Cede territory to them, they'll be back for more in a few years.
droid
Well-known member
A 'moral crisis' for the west? Do you mean the same west that's currently arming a fascist ethnostate as it openly commits one of the worst acts of genocide in modern history?
What's going on in Israel provokes one kind of crisis (or it should do). I don't know what will emerge from that in the long term.
A democratic ally losing militarily against an aggressor state on the edge of Europe will provoke another. I think the latter will have bigger consequences.
Yeah, the difference is that complicity with Israel is the West's policy, whereas the destruction of Ukraine isn't. They can both be moral failings, but only one's according to plan.
germaphobian
Well-known member
Emphatically speaking, I can understand your point of view, but - no offence - what you're essentially doing is looking at abstract numbers on a computer screen.
I'm quite sure that Germany's budget before WW2 also dwarfed in comparison with the combined budget of the rest of the rest of Western world.
What I mean is that Russia has many other factors playing in its favour, first of all - it's pretty much an autarky, except in a technological sense, but even that, due to Western complacency, is being circumvented; then, more importantly, a massive, uneducated, obedient populatian who is ready to die for any kind of stupidity. Not just to die, but also to suffer a prolonged hardship based on an abstract principle, like national honour or something like that.
Yeah that's accurate though I don't think the current unfolding catastrophe is "according to plan" though.
germaphobian
Well-known member
Regarding Israel, I can only respond wiht the worn out cliche that two wrongs dosen't make right.
droid
Well-known member
I suggest you look at Russian history. 1905 Russo/Japanese war = revolution. 1917 WW1 = revolution. 1980's Afghanistan = collapse of USSR.
mixed_biscuits
_________________________
Things are cheaper for Russia. You don't want the monetary spend but the resource per unit monetary spend.
droid
Well-known member
Economic capability and military spending are not abstract numbers, they are literally the most consequential factors in successful warfare. The massive economic and industrial power of the US and the concomitant dwindling of German industrial capability was ultimately the deciding factor in WWII.
germaphobian
Well-known member
I suggest you look at Russian history. 1905 Russo/Japanese war = revolution. 1917 WW1 = revolution. 1980's Afghanistan = collapse of USSR.
Well, I'm not intent of pulling the big duce out of my sleeve, but I suppose in this situation is appropriate to mention that my country was occupied by Russia for 50 years. So in this case I may be bit arrogant and say that I deffo don't need a history lesson.
droid
Well-known member
droid
Well-known member
Yeah, I assumed as much. I wouldn't downplay your fears in that respect, Russia does pose a threat to its neighbours - particularly the baltic states, but this does not mean that the red army is poised to sweep across Europe, and then the globe.
germaphobian
Well-known member
What is really important understand is that attack on Baltics, which also would draw in Finland and Poland (possibly Sweden) straight away, could escalate into nuclear exchange in matter of days, if not minutes.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
A ceasefire that gives Putin a significant territorial gain will mean his gamble has paid off. It'll just buy him time to regroup and re-arm and then he (or whoever succeeds him) will come back for more.
Appeasement didn't work in 1938 and it won't work in 2024 (or 2026, or 2028).
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I think Putin is deluded, but I don't think he's insane or suicidal. He surely understands that a nuclear attack on a NATO state would mean the end of Russia and the end of him.