I'm guessing that the shooting was unplanned. I'm not accrediting the story that the activists shot first, which seems highly unlikely*. a tense situation, an IDF commando with an itchy trigger finger, there you go. the one thing the Israelis are not is stupid, but this was a very, very stupid thing to do - I have a hard time believing that Netanyahu etc aren't cagey enough to be fully aware of that. then again, the decision to carry out the raid in international waters, rather than just detaining the ships off the Gaza coast and getting the same effect minus the PR nightmare, was pretty stupid in and of itself. I have a hard time seeing anything coming of it w/r/t maritime or international law, if only b/c all kinds of countries pull kinds of shady b.s. on the high seas all the time & get away with it, which only points for about the billionth time to the fallacy of "international law". the NATO angle, I dunno, but of all the countries for Israel to piss off, Turkey - which has traditionally been about as friendly to Israel as a Muslim country gets - is a really bad look. I saw some bits about Hezbollah, as well as Syria, making noises about war, which, yeah, I doubt it, esp. given that both have their own problems to deal with. what I can really see this being is a watershed moment for the Palestinians - I don't see how the Israelis are going to be able to avoid lifting the blockade of Gaza, for one.
*the only way I can see this happening would be by a provocateur intending to set off just such an incident. normally I would just discount that, but given how out of character (not in terms of bloodshed, before droid or somebody jumps in, but of what a bad play it is - let's be clear, there's a world of PR difference between killing Palestinians in Gaza & killing Europeans in the middle of the f**king Mediterranean, & the Israelis know that as well as anybody) it is...anyway it's just idle speculation in the absence of any evidence, and it's still pretty implausible. & it still wouldn't excuse the overwhelmingly excessive response of the IDF commandos even if it were true.