Iranian democracy
- Thread starter crackerjack
- Start date
vimothy
yurp
Pretty essential article on the power behind the coup: http://tehranbureau.com/the-leaders-of-iran’s-election-coup/
scottdisco
rip this joint please
nice one Vim
yeah that thing i linked to of his is something you could definitely, er, have a few words with, but eh oh, never mind.
will be mildly vaguely interested to see whatever statement G8 come up with.
scottdisco
rip this joint please
OT but have realised there's two - the other being in the PD (so i will name him) due to his being incredibly dim-witted Tory troll Daniel Hannan - Telegraph columnists (or sometime columnist) batting for this lot.
there must be something in the coffee at Canary Wharf.
3 Body No Problem
Well-known member
Want to Earn $10000?
Robert Naiman has offered $10000 reward for the first coherent account of how the Iran election was stolen. Maybe the resident crew of Iran experts wants to take up his challenge?
Robert Naiman has offered $10000 reward for the first coherent account of how the Iran election was stolen. Maybe the resident crew of Iran experts wants to take up his challenge?
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3 Body No Problem
Well-known member
I'm sure you can ignore a bit of incoherency in exchange for a wad of cash.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Either ballot boxes were stuffed with fraudulent votes or the numbers were simply made up.
That'll be $10,000 please.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
look, I read this dude every now & then, understand generally where he's coming from - secular Arab leftists are kind of a rare breed these days I suspect - but sometimes he veers into sheer nuttiness.
this is exactly the kind of bullshit, reality-warping hairsplitting that dude would be all over if it was in reference to, say, the Israelis support of the Maronites in Lebanon.
yes, CNN, tool of the Zionists. oh, if only the protesters had had the good since to "distance themselves"! I'm sure that would stopped the Basij in their tracks.
it all strikes me as, ironically given his endless anti-"Zionist" screeds, viewing the Iranian events thru the lens of Arab chauvinism.
3 Body No Problem
Well-known member
From the article: "To collect your reward, it's not sufficient to cite press reports or anecdotal evidence of election irregularities, or to claim as authority Western commentators or NGOs who have not themselves put together a coherent story.
vimothy
yurp
But that doesn't hold with regard to Mr Tea's story. Though, of course, that is not going to matter to Robert Naiman, who has no intention of giving anybody $10,000. THe fact is that it is not necessary to cite anyone (per Mr Tea, who did not) when conceiving of a plausible method of rigging the vote. They made it up. It's perfectly cohernet, and it doesn't require knowledge of any of the things neither we nor Mr Naiman know anything about. Iran voted. The Ministry of Interior (EDIT: who count the votes) declared Ahmadi the winner.
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vimothy
yurp
Abso-frickin-lutely.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
so I've finally managed to read a chunk of that CSIS paper on the Iranian military that Vim linked about 10 pages back. I'm only about 1/3 thru but a couple things that stand out, especially in re: recent events.
2 points that come up again & again
1 - Tho the Iranians have a lot of bodies in uniform/equipment, due to poor training, lack of infrastructure/poor logistics & ability to perform maintenance, the mixed success of homegrown defense industries, etc. its actual conventional strength, especially on the offensive (decided lack of mobility) - is far below the #s. another reason to focus on CBRN weapons & irregular/warfare by proxy.
2 - the IRGC have their fingers in many, many pies, have their own power base, are pretty well removed from any kind of civilian or military oversight, control all the CBRN stuff & are that the forefront of agitating for Iran to get more. None of this is a revelation, admittedly. But - I reckon the mullahs, tho certainly self-interested, at least care about the Iranian people & have a certain religious ethical base. the impression I get about the IRGC is that it's interested in 1 thing, namely the IRGC.
also - Iran is estimated to hold 11.1% world oil reserves & 15.3% world natural gas reserves. at the risk of exposing my own ignorance - I knew Iran had a lot of oil but not 1/10+ of the world reserve. & I had no idea that they had that much natural gas. reinforces how badly they must have been mismanaging the economy to not even be able to spread the oil/gas wealth around.
2 points that come up again & again
1 - Tho the Iranians have a lot of bodies in uniform/equipment, due to poor training, lack of infrastructure/poor logistics & ability to perform maintenance, the mixed success of homegrown defense industries, etc. its actual conventional strength, especially on the offensive (decided lack of mobility) - is far below the #s. another reason to focus on CBRN weapons & irregular/warfare by proxy.
2 - the IRGC have their fingers in many, many pies, have their own power base, are pretty well removed from any kind of civilian or military oversight, control all the CBRN stuff & are that the forefront of agitating for Iran to get more. None of this is a revelation, admittedly. But - I reckon the mullahs, tho certainly self-interested, at least care about the Iranian people & have a certain religious ethical base. the impression I get about the IRGC is that it's interested in 1 thing, namely the IRGC.
also - Iran is estimated to hold 11.1% world oil reserves & 15.3% world natural gas reserves. at the risk of exposing my own ignorance - I knew Iran had a lot of oil but not 1/10+ of the world reserve. & I had no idea that they had that much natural gas. reinforces how badly they must have been mismanaging the economy to not even be able to spread the oil/gas wealth around.
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
also I think Vim already linked to Ghassan Katib's but all 4 essays at Bitterlemons this week are Iran-related - or, Iran in the context of Isr/Pal - & worth reading.
alright, I'm out.
alright, I'm out.
vimothy
yurp
Iran's conventional strength (armour, manoeuvrability, logistical capacity, etc) is definitely lacking, but it's probably in a pretty strong position regardless: strategic depth from Quds Force and proxies, ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, Ras Tanura (largest oil terminal in the world) within range of its missiles, not to mention any number of local western allies... Regional conflagration, in other words.
nomadthethird
more issues than Time mag
Lulz.
I bet he thinks that because CNN interviewed an Israeli settler once or something.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
yep. there was a picture in a linked article where a meeting of IRGC top brass looked like, to draw another Dune parallel, the Saurdaukaur (David Lynch edition). isn't this a timeless story - the warrior cult which eventually overthrows, tacitly or not, its overlords? especially (tho not only) in the Muslim world - the Mamluks, the Janissaries, etc. right on to the Young Turks & Nasser.
all true, certainly - don't see as any of that contradicts anything i said. the point was that not only is its strength in asymmetric warfare & CBRN deterrents but why the regime - whatever combination of clerics/bureaucrats/generals/IRGC dudes makes decisions about procurement, production, training etc. - has seen fit to focus on those things. in other words, animals - including humans - are most dangerous when you've backed them into a corner, or if they feel they have been.
also re: regional power - certainly & hasn't that always been so dating back to the various Persian empires? tho one thing - certainly that regional threat is another deterrent - not that it precludes their doing so but setting off any serious conflict would obv have deleterious effects on Iran. again, back to wall & so on.