vimothy
yurp
No worries -- I'll post a load of links on Monday, though, because I've got to leave work early today.
Iraq: U.S. Troop and Mercenary Escalations
- Thread starter hundredmillionlifetimes
- Start date
No worries -- I'll post a load of links on Monday, though, because I've got to leave work early today.
vimothy
yurp
Background on the "surge"
The MNF strategy in Iraq is COIN, facilitated by the "surge". So, IMHO, the real question is: Is the new MNF strategy in Iraq working?
This is a good article for putting the surge into perspective alongside COIN:
Counter-InSURGEncy, a primer on our impending victory
The Army's COIN Field Manual:
FM 3 - 24
It's worth reading all of (COIN advisor to Petraeus) Dave Kilcullen's stuff on strategy. In particular:
Understanding Current Operations In Iraq
Countering Global Insurgency
Articles on the people behind the new strategy:
Knowing the Enemy (COIN as social science - amazing article)
Brainiac Brigade
Frederick Kagan:
Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq
Understanding General Petraeus's Strategy
Iraq: Is the Escalation Working?
Al Qaeda in Iraq
Kimberly Kagan:
Iraq Report
William McCallister:
Anatomy of a Tribal Rebellion
COIN and Irregular Warfare in Tribal Society Pamphlet
Anthropology controversy:
Human Terrain System & Human Terrain Team
AAA statement
Lots more stuff to follow ...
The MNF strategy in Iraq is COIN, facilitated by the "surge". So, IMHO, the real question is: Is the new MNF strategy in Iraq working?
This is a good article for putting the surge into perspective alongside COIN:
Counter-InSURGEncy, a primer on our impending victory
The Army's COIN Field Manual:
FM 3 - 24
It's worth reading all of (COIN advisor to Petraeus) Dave Kilcullen's stuff on strategy. In particular:
Understanding Current Operations In Iraq
Countering Global Insurgency
Articles on the people behind the new strategy:
Knowing the Enemy (COIN as social science - amazing article)
Brainiac Brigade
Frederick Kagan:
Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq
Understanding General Petraeus's Strategy
Iraq: Is the Escalation Working?
Al Qaeda in Iraq
Kimberly Kagan:
Iraq Report
William McCallister:
Anatomy of a Tribal Rebellion
COIN and Irregular Warfare in Tribal Society Pamphlet
Anthropology controversy:
Human Terrain System & Human Terrain Team
AAA statement
Lots more stuff to follow ...
vimothy
yurp
Yes, Kilcullen's really interesting. Part two -- assessments of the surge -- to follow when I get a spare minute at work!
vimothy
yurp
Is the "surge" working?
Just a couple of articles for now, from today's Financial Times.
Troop surge and Iraq factors curb bloodshed
US reports ‘phenomenal’ drop in Iraq violence
EDIT: A few more things,
How They Did It -- Executing the winning strategy in Iraq - Kimberly Kagan, Evening Standard
Baghdad’s Weary Start to Exhale as Security Improves - Damien Cave, NYT
Iraq Coalition Casualties
None dare call it 'victory' - Cal Thomas, Washington Times
On Iraq, a State of Denial - Charles Krauthammer, WaPo
Just a couple of articles for now, from today's Financial Times.
Troop surge and Iraq factors curb bloodshed
US reports ‘phenomenal’ drop in Iraq violence
Violence in Iraq has fallen at a rate that has surprised military commanders and even one of the architects of the “surge” that boosted US troop numbers in the country this year, according to figures gathered by the US.
The figures show the numbers of suicide attacks, roadside bombings, mortar and other attacks on US forces and on the Iraqi population have more than halved since 30,000 extra troops in June.
The military attributes the decline to the surge, the spread of local ceasefire deals across Iraq, a ceasefire by radical Shia militias and an improvement in the Iraqi security forces.
Jack Keane, the former army general who helped persuade George W. Bush, US president, to increase troop numbers in Iraq, said the decrease in violence was “phenomenal” and had occurred far faster than he had expected.
“When you understand you are dealing with the complexity of a counter-insurgency operation which can take years to resolve, to have this dramatic a success in a short period of time, it’s unprecedented,” he said.
The US military says the number of civilian deaths has also fallen 60 per cent since the surge took effect, with a drop of 75 per cent in Baghdad. According to icasualties.org, the average monthly US death toll dropped from 96 for the first half of 2007 to 66 in the past four months. The average monthly death toll for Iraqi civilians and security forces has dropped from 2,157 to 1,223 in the same period....
The figures show the numbers of suicide attacks, roadside bombings, mortar and other attacks on US forces and on the Iraqi population have more than halved since 30,000 extra troops in June.
The military attributes the decline to the surge, the spread of local ceasefire deals across Iraq, a ceasefire by radical Shia militias and an improvement in the Iraqi security forces.
Jack Keane, the former army general who helped persuade George W. Bush, US president, to increase troop numbers in Iraq, said the decrease in violence was “phenomenal” and had occurred far faster than he had expected.
“When you understand you are dealing with the complexity of a counter-insurgency operation which can take years to resolve, to have this dramatic a success in a short period of time, it’s unprecedented,” he said.
The US military says the number of civilian deaths has also fallen 60 per cent since the surge took effect, with a drop of 75 per cent in Baghdad. According to icasualties.org, the average monthly US death toll dropped from 96 for the first half of 2007 to 66 in the past four months. The average monthly death toll for Iraqi civilians and security forces has dropped from 2,157 to 1,223 in the same period....
EDIT: A few more things,
How They Did It -- Executing the winning strategy in Iraq - Kimberly Kagan, Evening Standard
Baghdad’s Weary Start to Exhale as Security Improves - Damien Cave, NYT
Iraq Coalition Casualties
None dare call it 'victory' - Cal Thomas, Washington Times
On Iraq, a State of Denial - Charles Krauthammer, WaPo
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vimothy
yurp
That's back to the level of January 2006. I'm not aware of any serious statistical analysis of the numbers that died under Saddam or anything like a daily death toll of Saddmite Iraq. (Though I guess you could add up estimates of the Iran-Iraq war, the invasion of Kuwait, plus the number of Iraqis killed by Saddam directly. So maybe 2 million over twenty years = 8333.3 per month, and half that if you exclude the two wars).
vimothy
yurp
I have found a "Black Book of Saddam Hussein", by Chris Kutschera. Review here. Kutschera puts the number at 2 million, making Saddam perhaps the greatest butcher of Muslims since Stalin. In office for 24 years, that makes 6,944 per month, half if you exclude the wars (i.e. nearly 3,500 civilian deaths a month under Saddam).
so after how many years of bodies piled to the ceiling, the first sign of a drop in death rate and "YOU SEE IT'S WORKING! THE SURGE, THE WAR, IT'S FOR THE GOOD OF THE IRAQI PEOPLE!"
there may be 3,496 other reasons for the death toll falling other than the "surge". and no one knows it will prove to be a temporary thing.
even if the situation calms down and a relative peace persists, it will in no way justify any action on the part of the americans.
there may be 3,496 other reasons for the death toll falling other than the "surge". and no one knows it will prove to be a temporary thing.
even if the situation calms down and a relative peace persists, it will in no way justify any action on the part of the americans.
vimothy
yurp
It's not the surge in any case -- its the spread of the "Anbar awakening", the al-Sadr ceasefire, the improvements in Iraqi security forces, and the new COIN strategy.
Regardless of that, surely you can still agree that the fall in violence is a good thing, which should be encouraged and supported. And if it persists, and Iraq develops into a stable, prosperous country with a representative government -- even better.
N
nomadologist
Guest
A "representative" government? roffle.
y'know, i seen you say that for a long time before realizing what ROFL meant. i had always interpreted it as a sort of combination of sneer and growl.
Mr BoShambles
jambiguous
y'know, i seen you say that for a long time before realizing what ROFL meant. i had always interpreted it as a sort of combination of sneer and growl.
enlighten me please zhao....
Guybrush
Dittohead
enlighten me please zhao....
Roll On the Floor Laughing.
Roffle means the same thing.
LOL ≈ Kind of funny
ROFL ≈ Actually funny
Mr BoShambles
jambiguous
Right gotcha thanks.
Thus the question that has to be asked: Why is the notion of a representative government in Iraq funny? Aside from the fact that - according to public choice theory - there can be no such thing as 'the common public good' since in any one state there are always a[ny] number of competing interest groups vying for influence/power meaning that so-called public servants are just as likely to engage in self serving activity as not.
The most representative states are the ones with well established institutional frameworks and comprehensive systems of checks and balances, which ensure that the interests of different groups are mediated. This kind of compromise can never be perfect IMHO - there will always be some who feel more hard done by (i.e. have compromised more) than others - but it is surely the only way to achieve peace and stability.
[Unless of course anyone is advocating systematic and bloody partioning/seperation in states around the world along the lines of ethnic origin / religous beliefs / political persuasions etc]
I don't think that a representative government for Iraq is to be scoffed at. A mediated peace between the different factions leading to stability is surely the most desirable outcome. Better than the current situation and certainly better than the tyrannical rule of Saddam.
The question is how is this best achieved?
Gavin
booty bass intellectual
I think Nomad was laughing at the notion that the government in Iraq is anything but a U.S. puppet -- in other words, not representative of the Iraqi people.
If we want to talk about the inherent flaws in "representative" political systems... maybe another thread is needed.
N
nomadologist
Guest
Yes, this is what I meant.