Is this the end of the Reagan/Rove right?

[Gabba Flamenco Crossover]

@vim - no, I know you weren't, that was a light hearted jab at some of the econo-tussles we've had in the past. And a vain attempt to stop you posting up a load of complex economics that I then have to go and read up on, but you did it anyway so more fool me .

But I'm sure we agree that voters aren't thinking on those kind of levels right now. I'm not sure what GWB could have done to head off subprime even if he'd wanted to, but voters are hurting economically and the expect the government to do something about it. As the 1997 UK election showed, voters can be brutal with right-of-centre parties who drop the ball on the economy.

TBH I think the economy may deliver it for the democrats no matter who runs. I read yesterday that house sales in California are down by a third year on year. That's scary...

 

[IdleRich]

"In fact, if the Dems really want to reduce inequality, they will have to make taxes more, not less, regressive, i.e. they will have to tax the poor and especially the middle class more."

Not this again...
Anyway:

"I'm personally convinced the White House is the Democrats' to lose."

I reckon that's probably true.... unless, I just have a sneaking suspicion that there might be a hidden resistance to having a black/woman president. I seem to remember in the past where there has been a large discrepancy between the polls and the actual results and one mooted explanation is that people have been unwilling to recognise their inbuilt racism/sexism and have said in the polls that they are perfectly happy to vote for a candidate that when it comes down to it they really aren't.

 

[vimothy]

@vim - no, I know you weren't, that was a light hearted jab at some of the econo-tussles we've had in the past. And a vain attempt to stop you posting up a load of complex economics that I then have to go and read up on, but you did it anyway so more fool me .

But I'm sure we agree that voters aren't thinking on those kind of levels right now.

Absolutely -- perhaps I'm really trying to ask, to what extent will the Democrats be able to deliver a better or more equal economy than the Republicans, and therefore, to what extent will the Democrats be able to hold together a stable winning coalition for as long a time as the Republicans were able.

EDIT: God, what a horrible sentence!

 

[Gabba Flamenco Crossover]

I seem to remember in the past where there has been a large discrepancy between the polls and the actual results and one mooted explanation is that people have been unwilling to recognise their inbuilt racism/sexism.

... but I think that could actually work for Hillary, vis a vis right-leaning middle-aged women.

 

[vimothy]

History’s hurdle for the Democrats - Michael Lind, FT

Democrats Make Populist Appeals Before Contests - John M. Broder and Jeff Zeleny, NYT

 

[polystyle]

Obama - 11 victories in a row.
Hillary / Billary - Noticed that Bill's name was not spoken once in last nights rather stiff smiled debate .
Almost pulled another tear dropper at the end there .

She has lost her lead with almost every catagory of voter.
On a 'wrong side of history' by now I reckon

 

[crackerjack]

Obama - 11 victories in a row.
Hillary / Billary - Noticed that Bill's name was not spoken once in last nights rather stiff smiled debate .
Almost pulled another tear dropper at the end there .

She has lost her lead with almost every catagory of voter.
On a 'wrong side of history' by now I reckon

Was reputedly booed last night too, and her lead in Texas and Ohio is now down to single digits and falling. I'm glad the Dems look like they've made a decision (a convention tussle could be disastrous) and H's closing speech last night sounded like the first steps towards a concession. Could be all over come Mar 5.

 

[nomadologist]

I wish privacy concerns and civil liberties were as important to anti-big-government people as free trade and "states rights" but the right has done a good job severing these two in the minds of a lot of people. The ACLU is at the top of the Republican hit list, and the siege mentality since 9-11 hasn't helped at all. I don't see this as a major concern in the election except among the Paulistas, and their voice is mostly heard as antiwar. It almost never gets connected to what GFC mentioned -- state and corporations working together to spy on, collect data from, and otherwise control the citizenry.

What's hilarious to me is the idea that GWB is "big government" in a classically "liberal" way because he abused his authority. Big government liberals are all about free lunch programs, higher minimum wage, more WIC benefits for single mothers, intervening in school districts that underperform, funding education, etc., not firebombing villages in third world countries. GWB may have vastly overstepped his authority as an executive branch member, but that doesn't make him a "big government" liberal. By any stretch.

 

[polystyle]

She has no momentum.
Feels like it will be 'over' even before then !

Luv to see a woman prez , but not this Hillary
Too much baggage and mismanaged campaign.

Def believe Obama will be better against McCain
And with 70 % of young voters going for Obama ,
McCain is far along on that 'wrong side of history'

 

[vimothy]

What's hilarious to me is the idea that GWB is "big government" in a classically "liberal" way because he abused his authority

No, no, no...

To the extent that either exist, "big government" conservativism is the opposite of "classically liberal" conservativism. Classical liberalism is about strict limits to the role of government, not about "abusing authority".

 

[nomadologist]

What? No. In America, it's the democrats/liberals who (for the last hundred years or so) endorsed "big government"-style social programs and policy-making.

Luv to see a woman prez , but not this Hillary
Too much baggage and mismanaged campaign.

Def believe Obama will be better against McCain
And with 70 % of young voters going for Obama ,
McCain is far along on that 'wrong side of history'

Totally agree! I might have voted for Hillary if the Hillary of 95 was running, but this is not the same Hillary.

Also, even republicans like Obama. He's a force to be reckoned with, she's a bureaucrat. I think we could do without a DC "insider" in the oval office for a nice change of pace.

 

[nomadologist]

I see what the issue is--when I said "classically" liberal, I should have just said "typically". I didn't mean to refer to the idea of "classical liberalism", I meant to refer to typically "liberal democrat" ideals from the last century or so.

You're right about "classical liberalism" being anti-big government.

 

[Guybrush]

I reckon that's probably true.... unless, I just have a sneaking suspicion that there might be a hidden resistance to having a black/woman president. I seem to remember in the past where there has been a large discrepancy between the polls and the actual results and one mooted explanation is that people have been unwilling to recognise their inbuilt racism/sexism and have said in the polls that they are perfectly happy to vote for a candidate that when it comes down to it they really aren't.

It’s called the Bradley Effect. Some claim the NH primary polls, which suggested a sweeping Obama victory, suffered from this. Although its presence in this race’s dynamic is far from clear.

 

[polystyle]

Possible, but NH was ... weeks ago !

 

[Guybrush]

Yes, but it could well make an ugly comeback should Obama set his foot wrong somewhere between now and November 4th. I rest my case until I’ve seen Obama go aggro. The “angry black male” and all that.

 

[Guybrush]

Also, the GE is a whole different kettle of fish, what with the majority of the voters’ in the Democratic primaries being female, a pretty substantial percentage coming from ethnic minorities, etc. Wooing white, “patriotic,” ex-Bushites — now that’s a different story.

 

[polystyle]

Hmm, that could be ( GE being different) -ya never know
but if you've seen BO's recent poll numbers ,
every group including older voters is going his way.
Already dead heat in Texas which weeks ago was supposed to be Hillary's territory.
Momentum is at work and seems to be building.

 

[nomadologist]

From listening to some old time political journalists talk, I've been pursuaded that Obama is obviously going to take the nomination.

Yay.

 

[adruu]

what were you listening to the maclaughlin group? =) unfortunately nothing is done yet...one more week to find out and move on

 

[crackerjack]

So what's the consensus in America about Obama's speech? The quotes I've seen looked pretty spectacular and he's shot up in my estimation (I liked him before, but thought he was mostly just wind), but is it gonna do him any good?