Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[version]

This is unsettling,

Think of what is happening as a huge paradigm shift for economies, institutions and social norms and practices that, critically, are not wired for such a phenomenon. It requires us to understand the dynamics, not only to navigate them well but also to avoid behaviors that make the situation a lot worse.

The bottom line is that the economic disruptions immediately ahead will be more severe and widespread than the ones experienced by the bulk of the population in advanced countries.

We live in a global economy wired for ever deepening interconnectivity; and we are living through a period in which the current phase of health policy — emphasizing social distancing, separation and isolation — runs counter to what drives economic growth, prosperity and financial stability. The effects of these two basic factors will be amplified by the economics of fear and uncertainty that tempt everyone not just to clear out supermarket shelves but sadly also reignite terrible conscious and unconscious biases.

All this will have stressful and immediate negative effects on institutions. Policies will be designed under “fog of war” conditions, including that awful trade-off between the critical need for urgency and both imperfect information and the absence of a playbook. The effectiveness of traditional measures will wane at a time of repeated need for streamlined and yet highly coordinated decision-making at the local, regional, national and international levels. And, if we are not careful, our own behaviors could compound this considerable list of challenges.

Wherever you look, economic activity is shutting down through a combination of government directives and social behaviors. U.S. travel bans, European border closings, nationwide shutdowns and office and school shutdowns have become normal.

The phenomenon is accelerating also at the level of local communities — a popular restaurant’s Friday reservations fell by two-thirds compared with those just a week earlier, and its walk-in traffic declined even more — and it is now reaching critical mass when even isolated and less-fear prone segments of the population will be forced to disengage (after joining the panic buying of supplies). With that, economic damage will be even more immediate and even more widespread. And because it will also be unprecedented for many, it will turbocharge the type of uncertainty, fear and feeling of powerlessness that results in either total paralysis or massive over-reactions

I worry that this combination, by yanking so many out of their comfort zones, will also make us lose sight that this shock can be contained and reversed. And when the economic turnaround comes, and it will come, the economic snapback will be sharp (though, as I will detail in the future, there will also be longer-term implications, including a further impetus for deglobalization).

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...-economic-shock-can-be-contained-and-reversed

 

[pattycakes_]

Wonder what the age stats are in those obits

 

[version]

It's interesting we've got a situation on our hands which highlights basically every major issue with the current system and political landscape. I'm not holding out hope for anyone to actually learn anything from it and make any serious changes, mind you.

 

[IdleRich]

It's interesting we've got a situation on our hands which highlights basically every major issue with the current system and political landscape. I'm not holding out hope for anyone to actually learn anything from it and make any serious changes, mind you.

If there is anyone left to learn.

 

[constant escape]

Re: treatment - Infectious Disease Experts Recommend Using Antibodies from COVID-19 Survivors as Stopgap Measure to Treat Patients and Protect Healthcare Workers

In an essay published online today March 13 in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, [Arturo] Casadevall and Liise-anne Pirofski, MD, chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, write that the infusion of antibody-containing serum from convalescing patients has a long history of effective use as a stopgap measure against infectious diseases
[...]
In this instance, individuals who recover from COVID-19 and are still in their convalescent phase would be asked to donate serum containing the antibodies that would then be processed for injection into sick patients and in those exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
[...]
Casadevall and other physicians are now trying to establish the practice of using convalescent sera as a preventive and treatment for COVID-19, in specific U.S. hospital networks and ultimately nationwide.

Also, a nice way to keep up with the numbers, should anyone feel such a need: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center

 

[Mr. Tea]

Letter written by 250ish prominent scientists saying that Johnsons strategy is insane, and social distancing is needed right now. Cant recall if they mentioned the insanity of stopping testing too.

That letter seems to be a stunt organised by QMUL, which most of the signatories belong to. Most of them are students, many don't even work in biology or medicine and apparently only one is a specialist in infectious diseases:

 

[Mr. Tea]

I mean I don't doubt that a senior lecturer in aeronautics at Imperial College is a clever chap, but there's no a-priori reason he should know any more about how to deal with the outbreak of a novel virus than any of us does.

 

[baboon2004]

Fair enough if that's the case on the letter. Maybe the WHO has some specialists we can listen to? You know, to see if we can maybe avoid 400,000 deaths?

Social isolation of the over-70s and vulnerable will follow anyway. They're making this up as they go along.

In the announcement, Tony Hancock is talking about the Blitz. Couldn't make it up. I live in the stupidest country that has ever existed.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Fair enough if that's the case on the letter. Maybe the WHO has some specialists we can listen to?

Sick and tired of has-been rock stars foisting their opinions on us, tbh.

 

[baboon2004]

Ha. You know that the govt plan is bonkers; Britain just happening to pursue an exceptionalist policy relying on many dubious premises, to the biggest public health issue in decades. That will just happen to kill hundreds of thousands of the most vulnerable, by their own admission, continuing policy since 2010.

Ironically, they managed self-isolation well enough with the entire fucking country. Which means the vaccine will reach us later and be more expensive. But it's fine, we'll all be immune, until we catch it again

 

[martin]

It's important to remain aware but between this thread and the trump one, dissensus has become pretty depressing lately. just a reflection of reality, I know, but nonetheless. both of those topics are all you see on TV and read online all day, used to be nice to come here as an escape from the anxiety. for my own sanity, I might just limit my browsing to COTD and DOTD for awhile.

Well, you have your 'happy thread', so no need to be a passive-aggressive prick. But have deleted the post that triggered you, so chill out. Also odd you can't see the positives here, ie- the talk about aid groups - just signed up to my local one and met a bunch of cool people, which is a welcome escape from anxiety for me after a week of frightened, angry people playing Supermarket Sweep on panic mode.

Anyway, done posting here, just gonna lurk and read Constant Escape's posts (which are great, thanks). Stay safe all.

 

[baboon2004]

Well, I for one would rather you stayed, have valued your posts here. Very good idea to join one of the groups, I need to get more involved with that

 

[john eden]

I think it’s important for everyone to remember that we are all likely to be a bit on edge at different times. And that this will manifest in different ways.

 

[sufi]

Well, I for one would rather you stayed, have valued your posts here. Very good idea to join one of the groups, I need to get more involved with that

me too,
I didn't think that post referred to yours Martin. Your post was just fine.
I think Leo's idea of self isolation from viral info is good though

 

[baboon2004]

Also important to note that people respond in different ways to deflection from reality - lots of people find that difficult or traumatic in itself for various reasons (possibly especially for those in the UK where the govtal response is also seeming like a flight from reality). I count myself among them.

 

[pattycakes_]

I didn't think it was either. It's just getting tough to feel some relief atm, is pretty much what I took away from that. So if its getting too much, it would make sense to limit your exposure. More people should post in the happy thread.

 

[entertainment]

It's kinda obvious that our societies and economic systems aren't built for this.

Capitalism being prone to crises has nothing to do with being shit at handling epidemics tho

 

[john eden]

Capitalism being prone to crises has nothing to do with being shit at handling epidemics tho

Crisis is integral to capitalism and so is valuing profit above people. The reduction of resource in the NHS is ideological, generally. But it is also specifically linked to the last crisis in 2008 too.

 

[droid]

me too,
I didn't think that post referred to yours Martin. Your post was just fine.
I think Leo's idea of self isolation from viral info is good though

Yeah, totally agree.

Martin, I hope your Ma is OK. Do everything you can to get her indoors and stay there. Hopefully there'll be some sanity soon.

Id like to know how people are doing through the next while - if you can give occasional updates here please do.

On day 3 here. Definite slowdown in activity overall but not as much as you'd hope. Dickheads still going out to pubs in town. They're gonna bring in full lockdown soon I would say. Dropped some food round to my folks yesterday in a mask. They waited till I left to collect it from the porch. Bringing the kids out for a walk later. 3 meltdowns already...

 

[john eden]

We’ve all got colds here which is irritating. The daughter has had a school trip to NYC cancelled which is gutting. My parents are being v sensible. Signed up to the local solidarity group and made a donation to the food bank.

I can work from home but will still go in mainly at the moment. For now. My commute is mainly walking anyway.