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Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
i was just thinking if all these viruses come from bats we should just kill all bats but apparently there's billions of them and to be fair it's not their fault anyway.

I think it's fine if we can avoid keeping them in tiny cages in close proximity to loads of different animals and then eating them.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Why aren't the death rates in Italy slowing down (319 deaths in Lombardy *alone*yesterday)? This is terrifying me more than anything, as it suggests the lockdown strategy takes ages to have effect, or isn't enough. The UK looks so fucked at this moment - they surely have to act right now, at least to start total lockdown.
 

droid

Well-known member
Why aren't the death rates in Italy slowing down (319 deaths in Lombardy *alone*yesterday)? This is terrifying me more than anything, as it suggests the lockdown strategy takes ages to have effect, or isn't enough. The UK looks so fucked at this moment - they surely have to act right now, at least to start total lockdown.

AFIK, new infections are levelling off, so that's a positive, but yes. the curve does not bend until x amount of days after lockdown.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
what's the source, Kumar?

On Italy and regions, this is interesting:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/

Beyond the very north, the death rate drops off incredibly fast, so this seems to be really, really concentrated in particular areas. By the time you get south to Tuscany and below, there's very little (comparatively).
Don't think that's been emphasised enough yet - it's not the whole of 'northern Italy' really.
The worry for the Uk is that because transport hasn't been curtailed soon enough, it could spread everywhere
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
AFIK, new infections are levelling off, so that's a positive, but yes. the curve does not bend until x amount of days after lockdown.

you're right, infection rate is 12.5% increase, lowest since feb 21. Definite massive positive. Uk currently 26% as said

what's happening in Ireland, there's precious little reporting here? i know ICU beds are at a premium
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Why aren't the death rates in Italy slowing down
huge elderly population - their median population age is one of the highest in the world - is a contributing factor

the average age of people who've died there so far is 79.5, and the over 99% had 1 or more preexisting serious conditions (heart disease, diabetes, etc)

the other answer is that lockdown came way too late, that vastly more people have it than the number of reported cases

also too many people violating quarantine measures, apparently tens of thousands have already been issued tickets (or something) for being out w/o reason

they're talking about instituting harsher measures. I have no idea what that will entail but it sounds bad, obviously.
 

yyaldrin

in je ogen waait de wind
london lockdown imminent pass it on

i feel so conflicted about this. at one hand i feel like yeh maybe it's the best thing to do on the other hand i feel like my god the powers we give our governments.

this is a scene from france today. can't say if it's legit but i'm assuming. the woman didn't have the right form with her or something.

 

droid

Well-known member
what's happening in Ireland, there's precious little reporting here? i know ICU beds are at a premium

Big surge in testing, second only to S. Korea now. Infection rates rising as anticipated, no new deaths. Civil service being redeployed for contact tracing, 24,000 health care workers rejoining the system.

National address by Varadkar last night full of bullshit without any new measures. Hoping for full lockdown soon followed by a proper financial and economic response. It will come, but too slowly for my liking.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
a spurious one no doubt, has been mentioned on a couple of mutual aid groups and there is a financial times article behind a paywall with a juicy title

it's on the telegraph and others now, within days a lockdown expected. fits into the regional thesis, but because they haven't been fucking testing, they have no idea what's going on outside london. and the south-east is already awash with coronavirus, so to only lockdown london is nuts.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
that's something

I assume the complete overwhelming of health services is concentrated in Lombardy as well

absolutely - they talked about helicopters to get people to other parts of the country, but presumably not enough helicopters, and logistics would be mad.

I think that's why the fact that Italy's health service is pretty good, just doesn't matter so much and it's about pure ventilator/bed/doctor/nurse counts at this stage

My friend's mum lives in Emilia-Romagna, and although it's the second worst affected area, apparently it's in no way comparable to Lombardy, either in stats or the overwhelmedness of the health service (would have to verify that ofc, because they can't leave the house, but...)
 
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