Election 2020
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it's the most probable "tipping point" state i.e. the one that will get whoever wins over 270 in the Electoral College
another way of saying it's the key swing state that's hardest to call
constant escape
winter withered, warm
Would you all say its fair to describe Trump as a guerrilla populist?
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it doesn't really surprise me that Biden would do worse with Hispanic voters in FL and better in the southwest
for one, Cuban-Americans for obvious reasons are vastly more Republican than Hispanic voters in general
for another, there's been researching show that as 2nd-3rd-etc gen Hispanic voters assimilate they tend to move right
which makes sense since the defining characteristic of "Hispanic" is language, not race, even as a social construct
or as the U.S. census puts it - unintentionally highlighting the murkiness of race - "Hispanic or Latino of any race"
the southwest - more new immigrants, and from different countries, less likely have deep-rooted mistrust of "socialism"
for one, Cuban-Americans for obvious reasons are vastly more Republican than Hispanic voters in general
for another, there's been researching show that as 2nd-3rd-etc gen Hispanic voters assimilate they tend to move right
which makes sense since the defining characteristic of "Hispanic" is language, not race, even as a social construct
or as the U.S. census puts it - unintentionally highlighting the murkiness of race - "Hispanic or Latino of any race"
the southwest - more new immigrants, and from different countries, less likely have deep-rooted mistrust of "socialism"
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
in terms of prediction?
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
still too close to call
winning AZ was good, losing OH was bad, losing NC was arguably worse. Biden needs PA or GA (or both if he loses WI and MI).
Trump is up by ~8 in GA but NYT needle has it as basically a dead heat bc most of the remaining vote is from very blue Atlanta + suburbs
a nailbiter going either way was a realistic outcome tonight, the only near-impossibility was a Trump EC landslide (and winning the popular vote)
winning AZ was good, losing OH was bad, losing NC was arguably worse. Biden needs PA or GA (or both if he loses WI and MI).
Trump is up by ~8 in GA but NYT needle has it as basically a dead heat bc most of the remaining vote is from very blue Atlanta + suburbs
a nailbiter going either way was a realistic outcome tonight, the only near-impossibility was a Trump EC landslide (and winning the popular vote)
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Biden is doing better than Hillary, I will say that
by this time in 2016 - even allowing for counting taking longer with mail-in ballots this time - she was totally done (at least in EC terms)
which doesn't mean Biden will necessarily win
by this time in 2016 - even allowing for counting taking longer with mail-in ballots this time - she was totally done (at least in EC terms)
which doesn't mean Biden will necessarily win
line b
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
perfect (he's currently losing the popular vote by 1.5m votes so yeah, up big)
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I wouldn't be surprised if that's preplanned his endgame here
unilaterally declare victory while it's close enough to pretend he's about to get jobbed
low risk - as there's virtually no low bar for his subversion of political norms, or behavior in general - potentially high-reward
his people probably knew directly blocking votes was a low-percentage strategy but it still works as a setup for this nonsense
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
this motherfucker is really going to just come out and unilaterally declare victory with no legal backing and try to make it stick
in one sense I'm not surprised at all, because why would I be, and he's also been almost openly saying he'd do just that for weeks now
but in a historical sense, it's still pretty fucking shocking
in one sense I'm not surprised at all, because why would I be, and he's also been almost openly saying he'd do just that for weeks now
but in a historical sense, it's still pretty fucking shocking
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
his utter ineptitude with COVID is obviously hurting him, but without COVID it's such a different campaign - a different year - that's it hard to say
I would be hesitant to make that kind of claim with any assuredness, anyway
but then, people have to come up with takes to attract eyeballs and it's plausible enough, so
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Fox just called Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District for Biden
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
which is a big deal bc if that and his Arizona win both hold (and he wins NV as expected)
then he only needs 2/3 of PA, WI and MI (assuming Trump wins everything else still in play including GA)
if Biden holds MI-WI and loses everything else he'd win 270-268, based on that single NE congressional district EC vote
which would be pretty fucking wild
then he only needs 2/3 of PA, WI and MI (assuming Trump wins everything else still in play including GA)
if Biden holds MI-WI and loses everything else he'd win 270-268, based on that single NE congressional district EC vote
which would be pretty fucking wild