Keir Starmer

hucks

hucks

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john eden said:
"Labour, meanwhile, will make a net gain of 35 council seats in London but a net loss of 16 across the rest of England. "

sotn.newstatesman.com

Our local election forecast for 2022

We predict that the Conservatives will lose more than 200 council seats, while Labour gains around 150.
sotn.newstatesman.com sotn.newstatesman.com
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Leaving out the next sentence, which says they’re expected to offset that loss with gains in Scotland and Wales is some selective quoting.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
@subvert47 That's exactly it - your last line, I mean. TBH Starmer has been pretty disappointing so far, but when you look at the sustained assaults the present government has made on democracy, or are planning to before the next general election, the only progressive option can be to get the bastards out by any means. Starmer won't be Labour leader (or PM, if they win the next GE) forever, just as Biden's win basically bought the Democratic party four years to (hopefully) find a candidate that progressives can actually get excited about.
 
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john eden

john eden

male pale and stale
hucks said:
Leaving out the next sentence, which says they’re expected to offset that loss with gains in Scotland and Wales is some selective quoting.
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I guess it depends where you live.

I'm not really up on the tensions between Plaid, the SNP and Sir Keier's Labour Party myself.

I am interested in the unfolding narrative of the erosion of the Labour base in the North of England though.

If others have good contributions to make about the situation on the ground in Scotland and Wales (and Northern Ireland for that matter), I am all ears.
 
john eden

john eden

male pale and stale
I inadvertently lent the Labour candidates in my ward a phone charger. So in spite of myself I am supporting Sir Kieier’s efforts by dint of being neighbourly and community minded.
 
john eden

john eden

male pale and stale

Can this really be true? I thought the great british public was crying out for the sensible centrism of Sir Kieieieier and his definitely not socialist policies? What say the electoral experts and political pragmatists of Dissesnsus?
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
john eden said:

Can this really be true? I thought the great british public was crying out for the sensible centrism of Sir Kieieieier and his definitely not socialist policies? What say the electoral experts and political pragmatists of Dissesnsus?
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Well the last round of local elections held when Corbyn was LOTO had this result:

1651828091814.png

Results announced so far from yesterday's vote look like this:

1651828205152.png
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
wild greens said:
Alternatively, Starmer and Corbyn are both unelectable
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That may yet turn out to be the case. Important to remember that these are only council elections, of course. Yes people can "send a message" but it won't fundamentally change anything in Westminster.
 
hucks

hucks

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john eden said:

Can this really be true? I thought the great british public was crying out for the sensible centrism of Sir Kieieieier and his definitely not socialist policies? What say the electoral experts and political pragmatists of Dissesnsus?
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I don’t know what exactly Curtice says but my guess is that Liam Young is being selective on the quote, something we’ve seen before. Curtice said that outside London Labour aren’t doing as well as Corbyn.


This is the same point as yesterday. If you leave out London, Scotland and Wales Labour is not making the progress they’d want to. They’d argue that the real nadir was 2019, not the 2018 locals but I’ve no idea if that’s true.

But if you insist on excluding all the places that they’re doing well in, you’ll get that result. ‘Except for the places they’re doing better, they’re doing worse’

Also not all of the councils have reported yet.
 
subvert47

subvert47

I don't fight, I run away
john eden said:

Can this really be true? I thought the great british public was crying out for the sensible centrism of Sir Kieieieier and his definitely not socialist policies? What say the electoral experts and political pragmatists of Dissesnsus?
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😉
 
subvert47

subvert47

I don't fight, I run away
Hard to know without seeing the demographics. I'd guess Starmer has made inroads into a wavering Tory vote, while alienating everyone energized by Corbyn, who may have stayed at home. If the latter can still be mobilized to vote against the Tories in a general election, then...
 
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john eden

john eden

male pale and stale
hucks said:
I don’t know what exactly Curtice says but my guess is that Liam Young is being selective on the quote, something we’ve seen before. Curtice said that outside London Labour aren’t doing as well as Corbyn.


This is the same point as yesterday. If you leave out London, Scotland and Wales Labour is not making the progress they’d want to. They’d argue that the real nadir was 2019, not the 2018 locals but I’ve no idea if that’s true.

But if you insist on excluding all the places that they’re doing well in, you’ll get that result. ‘Except for the places they’re doing better, they’re doing worse’

Also not all of the councils have reported yet.
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Thanks Hucks, I am both being deliberately irritating about this and not. Ulitmately I don't even have much skin in the game as parliamentary politics is not my thing.

Basically this isn't an exciting victory for Starmer. Thus far, he does not seem to have ignited the electorate in the way that some people assured us he would.

It is easy to dismiss the Labour gains because of external factors - the length of time the Tories have been in, the pandemic, partygate etc. I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone suggesting that the Labour gains were anything to do with Sir Keieieir as a leader or personality, or even Labour's current politices, whatever the fuck they are. "Not being Boris" is a value that also applies to a showroom dummy.

A critical issue, as I see things, both in terms of the next general election and the wider political culture, is whether Labour can win back the red wall. Not as far as I can tell.

On current evidence it seems likely that the non-Tory vote in the South of England might go to the Libdems or Greens and to the SNP in Scotland. Sinn Fein look like they are doing the business in Northern Ireland too.

So my current analaysis is that Labour remain screwed.
 
john eden

john eden

male pale and stale
But is precisely Starmer’s “electability” which was his selling point. So there must be something in it surely?

Either there is a scale of electability or there isn’t?
 
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