from the geezer who runs War Child, which is a pretty good summary i think of how things look close to the action (i.e. outside of the US mediadrome):
I left Lebanon this morning with serious doubts about whether some of the people I met here will still be alive in six months. In shutting off aid for 90 days, and issuing vague waivers about protecting lifesaving work, the US administration betrays a deep lack of understanding of the aid system and the acute vulnerability of the people who rely on it. People will die in large numbers. Here is why.
A 90 day suspension means that, even if a particular project is eventually deemed lifesaving, and can therefore continue, there is a 90 day interruption of cash flowing to the organisation delivering it. NGOs and their local partners do not have sufficient cash reserves to cover this gap from their own resources. They are forced to cut their staff immediately and stop their work. Food is not delivered. People starve.
Even organisations who can bridge the cashflow gap have no certainty that the money tap will eventually come back on. Despite the waiver, some NGOs in Syria are receiving stop notices for food security and protection work, whilst others are not. The chaos and unpredictability means many agencies are forced to stop simply because they don't know the status of their project.
The system unravels further when NGOs realise that the UN agencies they rely on for alternative funding are themselves on a 90 day suspension from US government funding. And the problems go deeper. NGOs might still be receiving funding from European donors and others, but without the US funding, their infrastructure costs are no longer affordable. They are forced to abandon offices, warehouses, trucking contracts as rapidly as they can. Downsizing on a scale as drastic as now required cannot be achieved over a weekend. The costs that can't be avoided will represent a huge drain on NGO reserves, and will force some into financial collapse.
Few would argue that a government system as big as the US aid programme would not benefit from a rigorous review. However, I am certain that nothing in the US aid budget would come close to the level of incompetence displayed in this careless and instant aid 'suspension'. If this administration no longer wants to contribute to global protection funds that is their decision to make. They nevertheless have a responsibility to manage their exit with some regard for the lives of millions of people whom the USA has previously promised to assist.
