The "how I will be watching the election results" thread

jambo

jambo

slip inside my schlafsack
California, Arizona and Florida voted to approve proposals to ban same sex marriage. I dunno, I think they're probably doing people a favour but it's not a good look for freedom or equality. The status of 18,000 gay marriages in California is now in doubt. That's pretty horrible actually.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
I'm not arguing that rich people should vote Republican, only that they seem to vote Republican less in richer states. Could be because Bush was bad for middle income voters. Could be for lots of reasons.

Seems like you could slice income growth data in a variety of different ways, e.g.,

800px-United_States_Income_Distribution_1967-2003.svg.png


Doesn't look like anyone did well under Bush. But from what I understand from Gelman, the trend isn't simply one of the middle classes rejecting Bush because their incomes have stagnated, the trend is richer states voting Democrat over the last 25 or so years.

Anway, post some data!
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
Grievous Angel said:
If he had gone for Hillary instead of Biden, would he have done even better?
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I reckon,, marginally. But understandably he didn't want those two hanging around his White House.

BTW - surely the youth turnout is up because all turn out is up
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Or turnout is up because youth turnout is up? We'll get the figures soon, i guess, but there seems little doubt yoof has been unusually energised this time around.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Grievous Angel said:
If he had gone for Hillary instead of Biden, would he have done even better?

BTW - surely the youth turnout is up because all turn out is up?
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Turnout is up, but I don't think that there was a huge youth turnout:

There was no massive turnout among young voters. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters this time were under 30, as compared to 17% of voters in 2004. (By comparison, 22% of voting-age Americans are under 30.)​
 
Grievous Angel

Grievous Angel

Beast of Burden
vimothy said:
There was no massive turnout among young voters. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters this time were under 30, as compared to 17% of voters in 2004. (By comparison, 22% of voting-age Americans are under 30.)​
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Yeah I saw that before. Despite the comparison with the population, these are still relative numbers. i.e. it's still only 18% compared to 17%, but, I suspect, it's of a much larger voter turnout. It sounds like everyone turned out. Including republicans.

The newsweek stuff is fascinating.

The West Wiing thing... sorry, I just love it, it's hilarious, I'm lapping it up, a real life Santos and Josh? Bring it on. Amazing!
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
vimothy said:
Doesn't look like anyone did well under Bush. But from what I understand from Gelman, the trend isn't simply one of the middle classes rejecting Bush because their incomes have stagnated, the trend is richer states voting Democrat over the last 25 or so years.
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In fact, if you check the graph I posted of top-earner voter share, it gets quite interesting:

richpoor.jpg


Beyond a certain point over $100k, support for Reps starts decreasing (in 2008).
 
B

BareBones

wheezy
Bernard Avishai:

I confess a certain impatience, on this poignant day, with all the
earnest talk about how America achieved something remarkable yesterday
by electing our first African-American president, as if the choice has
been about race all along. I do not mean to diminish an historic
first, like electing a Catholic in 1960; I, too, choked-up when John
Lewis spoke. But relief today is not about Americans choosing an
obviously black man over a white man, which proves we can come to
terms with our past. It is about our choosing an obviously brilliant,
reciprocal man over a thick, cynical one--a man who articulates a
coherent vision of global commonwealth over someone advancing vague,
military patriotism--which proves we can come to terms with our
future.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/05/the_content_of_his_character/
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
crackerjack said:
http://www.foxnews.com/video-search/m/21344079/frozen_out.htm?pageid=17951
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I'm sorry, but "knowledgeability"? Ahahaha! :)

I guess this is the country that endowed - sorry, gifted - the English language with "burglarized" (presumably making the relevant noun "burglarification" or somesuch...).

Edit: the guy says she couldn't name the countries in North America. Fucksake, it's not being asked to name all the countries in Africa - although that could be easier if you think the answer's "Um...Africa!".
1892_mad_smiley_banging_head_against_a_brick_wall.gif
 
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C

crackerjack

Well-known member
Mr. Tea said:
I guess this is the country that endowed - sorry, gifted - the English language with "burglarized" (presumably making the relevant noun "burglarification" or somesuch...).
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As a rule I can't stand those garbled American neologisms (American slang is an entirely different matter), but burglarized is great - it just sounds so filthy.
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
Mr. Tea said:
Edit: the guy says she couldn't name the countries in North America.
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It's not so easy, Mr Clever. You've got Mexico, Canada and the USA. Then there's Alaska (Todd and her AIP friends say it's a separate country) and then there's Russia, right there across the ice rink.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
crackerjack said:
As a rule I can't stand those garbled American neologisms (American slang is an entirely different matter), but burglarized is great - it just sounds so filthy.
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Indeed - reminds me of Beefheart's 'I'm Gonna Booglarize You, Baby'.
 
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