The "how I will be watching the election results" thread

[crackerjack]

" If he had a role model it was, of all people, Lee Atwater".

 

[...]

At least it shows that Obama's not naive enough to ditch the dark artists of Washington realpolitik. Heh.

 

[Grievous Angel]

He studied ballet. I bet he's hard as fucking nails.

"The president doesn't hold grudges. That's what he pays me for."

I'm glad Obama has him. He's going to fuck the republicans with a rusty spoon.

 

[vimothy]

Didn't he also volunteer for the IDF during the first Gulf war?

 

[vimothy]

I haven't seen that data, and theres hundreds of factors which may have affected the poll, but one thought springs to mind - how would people who were refused registration or access to the ballot (which was the main thrust of fraud attempts this time) have taken part in exit polls?

Michael McDonald, a consultant for the US national exit poll organisation, says that, "the 2004 exit polls are likely not not reliable on some demographic measures, such as age and perhaps race".

That said, exit polls for 2008 show turnout among black voters up 2% over 2006.

Also, droid -- do you have a dataset with the popular vote in all US elections?

 

[scottdisco]

i think i've heard the IDF thing too, Vimothy.

bet we could source it somewhere. i see TNR go on about him a fair bit.

no way to confirm or deny if he gave his IDF t-shirt to Justine Frischmann, granted..

...i heartily wanna second Paul's point on rusty spoons

 

[nomadthethird]

good news for anyone fearful the Palin Show might be terminated after one season...


The Alaskan people, in their finite wisdom, are apparently set to re-elect Ted Stevens, despite the fact that he's older than Methusaleh and has just been convicted of taking bribes, the first sitting senator so nabbed since year.dot.

So, here's what happens - he goes back to Washington, Washington says "Fuck off, only non-convicted crooks are allowed in here." Rather than hold a by-election, responsibility for appointing his replacement falls on...the Governor of Alaska.

I don't think you can hold office if you are a convicted felon.

 

[vimothy]

On it mate. Check Google out: Son of a Zionist terrorist! Israel Wins Whitehouse Again!

This though,

The Almanac of American Politics says that after leaving the White House in '99, Emanuel made gazillions as an investment banker in Chicago, then ran for Congress in '02, and his opponent was hurt by an ally who charged Emanuel with dual loyalty and said that he had served in the army in Israel during the 91 Gulf War. Well no, says the Almanac: he "volunteered as a civilian at an Israeli supply base."​

 

[nomadthethird]

I'm not arguing that rich people should vote Republican, only that they seem to vote Republican less in richer states. Could be because Bush was bad for middle income voters. Could be for lots of reasons.

Seems like you could slice income growth data in a variety of different ways, e.g.,

Doesn't look like anyone did well under Bush. But from what I understand from Gelman, the trend isn't simply one of the middle classes rejecting Bush because their incomes have stagnated, the trend is richer states voting Democrat over the last 25 or so years.

Anway, post some data!

Richer people (but not THE richest people, who tend to vote republican) in blue states vote democratic (even though, at times, this means a slight increase in taxes for the) because they are by and large much better educated and come from ethnic communities (jews, for example) who tend to believe strongly in issues related to social justice.

More educated people realize that voodoo economics is just that, and don't mind helping the bottom quintile. More educated people also know that you build up an economy from the bottom up and don't mind paying into a progressive tax system if this will help to get this done.

P.S. Richer states have always tended to be more liberal in the U.S.

 

[vimothy]

Those are certainly plausible explanations. (I definitely recommend looking at Gelman's data, BTW -- the last few pages of this thread are covered with them, plus links). But I don't know if the coastal rich are better educated than the heartland rich on average. I'm sure there'll be a graph somewhere...

Also not sure if richer states have always voted Democrat. IIRC, Gelman dates this from about 20-30 years ago.

 

[nomadthethird]

Anybody catch Newark mayor Cory Booker's comments on "racial deliciousness"? Ha.

 

[nomadthethird]

But I don't know if the coastal rich are better educated than the heartland rich on average. I'm sure there'll be a graph somewhere...

I would bet that they are. There aren't all that many rich people in the mid-West, at least not on the same scale as they are on the coasts.

Just take a look at differences in real estate prices if you don't believe me...

Edit: Rich people on the coasts have always voted liberal, whether that meant democratic or republican.

One of the number one reasons John McCain's campaign was such a nightmare, imo, is that McCain really seemed not to understand that $250,000/year for salary is a lot of money to the average person. He thought that raising taxes on someone who makes $250,000 a year was like taxing the lower middle class, because he's so used to having so much fucking money. This made him look as out of touch and old-white as possible, which didn't do him any favors w/r/t cutting ties from Bush republicanism.

 

[vimothy]

Are you saying that before 1980, the GOP was the liberal party in the US?

As for education -- post some data!

 

[nomadthethird]

Are you saying that before 1980, the GOP was the liberal party in the US?

As for education -- post some data!

Just because one republican won an election a couple of times doesn't mean that MOST PEOPLE on the coasts are not liberal. Part of the reason why Reagan won was because Carter fucking blew it so badly.

The liberal party in the late 1800s until into the early 1900s was the republican party.

Post some data from some stupid website about how richer people in the U.S. are also more educated! Sure, I'll waste my time doing that. Not.

All you have to do is LIVE HERE and it's OBVIOUS. I don't think anyone in America would dispute that people who live in RICHER STATES also are more likely to have higher educational degrees.

 

[nomadthethird]

Want some data about the sky being blue, too? Or about how people in the projects are less likely to go to college?

 

[vimothy]

Nomad -- remember that I'm not asking you to prove that rich people are better educated than poor people, but that better educated people vote Democrat.

Otherwise, I just don't know how far personal anecdote anecdote from someone I've never met takes me.

If we have data, we don't need to argue.

 

[nomadthethird]

Nomad -- remember that I'm not asking you to prove that rich people are better educated than poor people, but that better educated people vote Democrat.

Otherwise, I just don't know how far personal anecdote anecdote from someone I've never met takes me.

If we have data, we don't need to argue.

Look at the electoral map right now, or at almost any other time in the U.S. People who live in the richer areas (where people are also more educated and are more likely to hold a degree) vote liberal.

It's not really even a question here. Don't ask me, ask anyone who lives here.

Red states are usually states where there are industrial jobs, where it would actually hurt you in the job market if you had a degree.

 

[vimothy]

Here are fifty year voting trends, according to profession:

[+]

Professionals (doctors, lawyers, and so forth) and routine white collar workers (clerks, etc.) used to support the Republicans more than the national average, but over the past half-century they have gradually moved through the center and now strongly support the Democrats. Business owners have moved in the opposite direction, from close to the national average to being staunch Republicans; and skilled and unskilled workers have moved from strong Democratic support to near the middle.

These shifts are consistent with the oft-noted cultural differences between Red and Blue America. Doctors, nurses, lawyers, teachers, and office workers seem today like prototypical liberal Democrats, while businessmen and hardhats seem like good representatives of the Republican party. The dividing points were different 50 years ago. The Republicans still have the support of most of the high-income voters, but these are conservatives of a different sort. As E. J. Dionne noted in analyzing poll data from 2004, the Democrats’ strength among well-educated voters is strongest among those with household incomes under $75,000—”the incomes of teachers, social workers, nurses, and skilled technicians, not of Hollywood stars, bestselling authors, or television producers, let alone corporate executives.”​

 

[nomadthethird]

Here are fifty year voting trends, according to profession:

[+]

Professionals (doctors, lawyers, and so forth) and routine white collar workers (clerks, etc.) used to support the Republicans more than the national average, but over the past half-century they have gradually moved through the center and now strongly support the Democrats. Business owners have moved in the opposite direction, from close to the national average to being staunch Republicans; and skilled and unskilled workers have moved from strong Democratic support to near the middle.

These shifts are consistent with the oft-noted cultural differences between Red and Blue America. Doctors, nurses, lawyers, teachers, and office workers seem today like prototypical liberal Democrats, while businessmen and hardhats seem like good representatives of the Republican party. The dividing points were different 50 years ago. The Republicans still have the support of most of the high-income voters, but these are conservatives of a different sort. As E. J. Dionne noted in analyzing poll data from 2004, the Democrats’ strength among well-educated voters is strongest among those with household incomes under $75,000—”the incomes of teachers, social workers, nurses, and skilled technicians, not of Hollywood stars, bestselling authors, or television producers, let alone corporate executives.”​

Republicanism changed quite a bit after WWII, some would even say it started changing after Hoover and the GD.

Note that before I didn't say poor people vote republican and rich people democrat throughout the history of the us; I said rich people (the upper middle class at least) vote liberal. The lower middle class votes conservative.

And after urbanization after WWII, you had another voting demographic that emerged strong and staunch, the inner city impoverished liberal voters.

 

[vimothy]

Let me just sum up, maybe there's too much noise for ya:

Rich people tend to vote Republican, poor people tend to vote Democrat.

However, rich states tend to vote Democrat.

In those states, rich voters are still better educated -- as you said -- therefore among better educated people, geography matters. In the Midwest, better educated/rich voters tend to vote Republican, on the coast, better educated/rich voters tend to vote Democrat.

Education doesn't explain this -- if you hold education constant, it seems to me that you see the same trend. But I don't know for sure because I don't have the figures.