No Future for the GOP?

IdleRich

IdleRich
I think I read somewhere when fewer than the full number of representatives are present, the winning threshold is lowered proportionally below 218. there had been scuttlebutt about McCarthy/moderate Republicans maybe trying to make a deal with Democrats to not show up, so McCarthy could lower the number of votes needed to win.
From what I was reading you still need a full majority. Could be wrong though, I did hear some people saying the opposite.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Yes, that's exactly what I meant. Anyway - on returning from dinner - it turns out it was the opposite of the opposite, that is to say, it's what I said the first time, ie to win 218 votes were still required and no-one got them after three more votes - six in total - so still no speaker. Adjournment for three hours I understand so they can all bang their heads on the wall for a bit longer and then vote number seven.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Yes, that's exactly what I meant. Anyway - on returning from dinner - it turns out it was the opposite of the opposite, that is to say, it's what I said the first time, ie to win 218 votes were still required and no-one got them after three more votes - six in total - so still no speaker. Adjournment for three hours I understand so they can all bang their heads on the wall for a bit longer and then vote number seven.

Except they came back and asked for an adjournment until tomorrow (cos that worked so well for them when they did it last night), Dems voted against but...

After A LOT of drama, the House has passed an adjournment vote 216-214

So they get to kick the can down the road again...
 

Leo

Well-known member
I think I read somewhere when fewer than the full number of representatives are present, the winning threshold is lowered proportionally below 218. there had been scuttlebutt about McCarthy/moderate Republicans maybe trying to make a deal with Democrats to not show up, so McCarthy could lower the number of votes needed to win.

@IdleRich this is what I meant:


“Democrats have 212 votes. You get 213 votes, and the others don’t say another name, that’s how you can win. You can win with 218. You could win with 222. But if you want to look at how you have to go about doing it,” McCarthy said.

The House Speaker is elected by a majority of all those voting for a specific Speaker candidate, not necessarily all members. Those voting “present” and those who are absent do not count toward that total, lowering the threshold. Former House Speakers Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and John Boehner (R-Ohio) each won the Speakership with just 216 votes in 2021 and 2015, respectively.

In the three Tuesday votes, all 434 members voted in all ballots, putting the majority threshold at 218. In the first and second ballots, McCarthy got 203 votes, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) got 212 and 19 McCarthy opponents voted for other candidates. In the third vote, a 20th member joined the detractors, putting McCarthy at 202.
 

Clinamenic

Binary & Tweed
@IdleRich this is what I meant:

We're writing bylaws for a couple organizations now, and its fascinating just how important all the procedural stuff is, and extents to which you need to account for contingencies.

Lately I've been thinking about it in terms of bureaumancy, or the summoning of bureaucratic structures, a sort of blend of western esoterica and business administration.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
OK, so it seems that contrary to what everyone was saying yesterday you just need a majority of those who vote (not including those who abstain) - not that it mattered cos, in the end despite the count, everybody was there. But this hardly helps McCarthy does it? At the moment, if the voters for a third candidate moved halfway to abstain (ie say Present) then the Dem candidate who has been ahead in every vote so far is the one moving closer to the win.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Florida’s Republican representative Matt Gaetz has nominated Donald Trump for House speaker.
“Donald John Trump,” Gaetz said, standing up and smiling, as his name was called for the vote. Next to him, Georgia’s Republican representative Marjorie Taylor Greene smiled as murmurs of surprise spread across the House.

What a clown
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
And now the 8th vote... there is the oft-quoted thing attributed (probably erroneously like everything of the kind) to Einstein about how the definition of madness is doing the same thing again and again but expecting a different result. It's come up a few times in relation to this ridiculous situation of course.... it feels like the people running it are the ones who need to find a new process cos the ones involved aren't gonna change - but it also feels that the ones running it are the ones involved and they can't. It feels totally stuck... still maybe 8th one will be different.
 

Leo

Well-known member
McCarthy is such a hollow character that he'll just pretend none of this ever happened, even if he withdraws.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Boebert took the piss out of him by saying "I'm voting for Kevin.... Hearn" - apparently she thinks he's the true consensus candidate.
 

woops

is not like other people
the definition of madness is doing the same thing again and again but expecting a different result.
so if you roll a die again and again and expect a different result your insane? Einstein was a moron, go to the bottom of the class
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I think he may have been talking more about deterministic things than probabilistic ones but I'll grant that that statement in itself might be quite problematic.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
And again.

They've voted nine times in a row over three days with exactly the same result each time and they plan to keep on doing it.
Now ten times...

Sadly though from what they are saying it seems that there is a deal of some sort on the cards in the near future. A running joke gets funnier the more you repeat it and I was enjoying this, so pity if they do manage to hash it out.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Although... not much sign of any progress from the final totals of the 10th vote.

The results of the TENTH round:
Hakeem Jeffries - 212
Kevin McCarthy - 200
Byron Donalds - 13
Kevin Hern - 7
Present - 1

Team Hakeem has been the highest vote getter for the TENTH time. McCarthy has received his LOWEST vote total so far
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
As you can probably tell I find something quite fascinating about all this. I don't really care who is speaker but the process is bizarre, or the way they are playing it or something. The way that McCarthy keeps insisting he will win despite seemingly having absolutely no idea in his mind of how he will achieve that, the sheer obduracy of both sides (ignoring the Dems here, as I see it their main role is as a kind of threat that is preventing the Reps fucking each other quite as much as they want to) and the mindlessly repetitive nature with the same results occurring again and again... the majority side cheering passing an adjournment is also weird.
 
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