scottdisco
rip this joint please
(i don't include Wales or Scotland as the BNP did badly in both places in '04.)
the sums i've been looking at are in my native North West, but please chip in anybody else from other regions. (BNP polled strongly in the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside regions last time around for eg.)
given the PR system in use i would like to believe the Greens with their lovely videos about voting smart, but every single piece i've read in the press/blogs etc re the northwest seems to look at the big three parties, and then make an assumption about this final seat for the fourth-strongest party (8th seat, there are 8 seats up for grabs in the North West, as there are in London) being split between the Greens or the BNP, and quite a lot of people mention poor polling stats for Ukip.
my question is: does anybody have any indication of how Ukip are going to do (specifically in the North West but anywhere really)?
i've read plenty of comment saying Ukip are not a concern and their support has been falling but i'd have thought - anecdotal here, granted - they are going to do very very well. also, i've seen mention of bad polls for them but no evidence of this in the slightest.
i was going Green but have now paused and wonder if - as bad as this sounds - a tactical vote for Ukip would be the way forward. (the tragicomedy of an EU vote for a party that wants to leave the EU entirely, of course, does not escape me.)
hypothetically, if this region polls, say, Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem in order and the fourth party will be Ukip (as they were last time), to really make sure the BNP don't get anywhere, the most effective use of my vote is Ukip (who i despise personally), rather than the Greens.
yes i know all about Ukip, how this could be ultimately self-defeating, how i would be washing my hands afterward for a long time blah blah, but they are by far the less bad choice versus the BNP, and there is no use preening if the BNP are sniffing at the door; Nick Griffin is after all standing himself in the North West region.
thoughts from any of you political science types, leaflet droppers, etc?
ta.
the sums i've been looking at are in my native North West, but please chip in anybody else from other regions. (BNP polled strongly in the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside regions last time around for eg.)
given the PR system in use i would like to believe the Greens with their lovely videos about voting smart, but every single piece i've read in the press/blogs etc re the northwest seems to look at the big three parties, and then make an assumption about this final seat for the fourth-strongest party (8th seat, there are 8 seats up for grabs in the North West, as there are in London) being split between the Greens or the BNP, and quite a lot of people mention poor polling stats for Ukip.
my question is: does anybody have any indication of how Ukip are going to do (specifically in the North West but anywhere really)?
i've read plenty of comment saying Ukip are not a concern and their support has been falling but i'd have thought - anecdotal here, granted - they are going to do very very well. also, i've seen mention of bad polls for them but no evidence of this in the slightest.
i was going Green but have now paused and wonder if - as bad as this sounds - a tactical vote for Ukip would be the way forward. (the tragicomedy of an EU vote for a party that wants to leave the EU entirely, of course, does not escape me.)
hypothetically, if this region polls, say, Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem in order and the fourth party will be Ukip (as they were last time), to really make sure the BNP don't get anywhere, the most effective use of my vote is Ukip (who i despise personally), rather than the Greens.
yes i know all about Ukip, how this could be ultimately self-defeating, how i would be washing my hands afterward for a long time blah blah, but they are by far the less bad choice versus the BNP, and there is no use preening if the BNP are sniffing at the door; Nick Griffin is after all standing himself in the North West region.
thoughts from any of you political science types, leaflet droppers, etc?
ta.