Iranian democracy

C

craner

Beast of Burden
So one the one side, we have

Quote:
Mr Obama's reticence may have in fact strengthened the hand of the reformers and improved the chances of fundamental change.

on the other

Quote:
The charge levelled against President Bush was that he was too simplistic, that there was no nuance in his foreign policy, that he only saw the world in black and white.

But if he were in charge now, we would at least know his verdict on these elections.

are you really suggesting the latter is more important?
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I don't think either of those statements are at all certain, frankly.
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
something I noticed while reading an article in Newsweek - Iran's plummeting total fertility rate, >1.7 children/woman. which is esp. nuts cos it's down from a TFR of 6.5 in 1980. we're talking world record drop-off here, & apparently flying in the face of all demographer wisdom.

1955-2000
2003-2008

in the "reasons why" category - as opposed to minute-by-minute updates (which Vim - & good work sir, whether we agree or not - has on lockdown) here's a very interesting article from February on the decline of Iran:


Sex Drugs & Islam

drop in TFR duly mentioned, also - staggeringly high #s of opium addicts (something like 5% of the adult population!), educated women choosing prostitution as a road to affluence (on the order of American women working their way thru college as strippers).

it all speaks to the catastrophic encounter w/the 21st century Vim has postulated, tho it's been catastrophic for everyone, not just the mullahs, who are themselves - yeah, futilely - trying to hold back history. it also goes a long way to explaining the desperation they feel - nothing to lose.
 
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vimothy

vimothy

yurp
sdasd.jpg
 
S

scottdisco

rip this joint please
dunno if anybody else saw it but just saw the opening footage of Basij shooting dead seven protestors on Ch4 News at Noon five mins ago.

i know we've discussed Iranian opiates, prostitution etc on other threads, but seeing the numbers presented as P does, this clear-eyed illustration of falling stats, is large.

just ignore that sick-azz Brit humour eh P?
;)

(got yr PM BTW man, will be in touch anon. loved that anecdote!)
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
scottdisco said:
just ignore that sick-azz Brit humour eh P?
;)
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nah I reckon my sense of humor is even drier! actually I think it's that in the back of my head I'm just paranoid that somehow we will wind up - or Bibi will drag us into - some incredibly stupid war with Iran...

re: falling birth rates in conflict zones - see also;

Lebanon - down from 4.3 in 1980 to 1.87 now
Sri Lanka - down from 3.75 to ~2 - put forth as one of the major, largely unspoken reasons for the end of the civil war - less recruits, plus less kids means more opportunities for education, jobs etc

on the other hand the Gaza Strip is at a healthy 5.9, tho the West Bank is down at 3.31, including a sharp decline in the last 5 years.
 
S

scottdisco

rip this joint please
padraig (u.s.) said:
Sri Lanka - down from 3.75 to ~2 - put forth as one of the major, largely unspoken reasons for the end of the civil war - less recruits, plus less kids means more opportunities for education, jobs etc
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all interesting stats and i was particularly intrigued wrt this one. SL is such a broken society, certainly in the areas where conflict has most touched, really worse off than even a lot of other conflict zones/warring nations, in terms of the duration and reach of the conflict there specifically
 
S

scottdisco

rip this joint please
just reading that ATimes piece, i do have my doubts about Spengler's world-view sometimes.

Craner can tell us all about Pepe Escobar, another ATimes nutter.
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
padraig (u.s.) said:
you'd like him to do what exactly?
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The League of Decency seems determined to drag Bush back into this, as if forged Iranian elections prove he was right about Iraq, or that walrus-tashed cunt whose name escapes me* was right about Iran, or something.

Even Aaronovitch, who I generally rate much higher, is sounding off about this being what happens in a post-Bush world and apparently confusing Amnesty & HRW with the SWP.




*Bolton.
 
C

craner

Beast of Burden
you'd like him to do what exactly?
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I'd like him to have the guts and clear eyes to follow through on this:

Each nation gives life to this principle in its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people. America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere.

There is no straight line to realise this promise. But this much is clear: governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure. Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments – provided they govern with respect for all their people.
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which was WELL SAID. He said it, he should sell it. Why not? And lose what? His precious detente with the mullahs?

I think we've just witnessed a far more potent and principled alternative. But our reaction to it has been sluggish and cynical, to say the least. It's an embarrasment.
 
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C

crackerjack

Well-known member
craner said:
I'd like him to have the guts and clear eyes to follow through on this:



which was WELL SAID. He said it, he should sell it. Why not? And lose what? His precious detente with the mullahs?

I think we've just witnessed a far more potent and principled alternative. But our reaction to it has been sluggish and cynical, to say the least. It's an embarrasment.
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what would this achieve, other than making it easier for the theocracy to portray a democratic uprising as the work of the great satan?
 
C

craner

Beast of Burden
Well, that's now received wisdom, but based on what?

People inclined to believe 'Great Satan' propaganda are inclined to believe it anyway. What happened to solidarity?
 
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