Iranian democracy

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four_five_one

Infinition
Can anyone see a recount being helpful? It's difficult to see how any sort of counting error would account for such discrepancies... If Ahmadinejad is once again the winner, then the protesters will still be unsatisfied, but if Moussavi were proven the winner, too many powerful heads would have to roll --

A runoff or reelection is surely the best for all concerned? Except Ahmadinejad himself.
 
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crackerjack

Well-known member
scottdisco said:
gratuitously OT but just wanted to put this in as the final sentence footnote gave me a grim laugh: it's about Seumas Milne at the Guardian as regards his take on events.

here

p.s.
yes Milne wrote a book on the British miners' strike back in the day good lad etc etc
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Saw Milne had a Guardian comment this morning and decided against reading it - you need to be in a mood for a laugh, or it'll just make you angry that the paper sullies its name by printing the clown.

How was it? Down to the usual standards?

And yes, Geras (I'm not a fan, btw) nails the joke. You'd think that a public school posh kid whose dad was BBC DG would have a little voice in the back of his head telling him leave off the snide remarks about "gilded youth", wouldn't you?
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
A recount is unlikely to change anything, given that the people responsible for rigging the election in the first place will be recounting. I see the following outcomes as possible:

1. Khamenei abandons Ahmedinejad (blaming him for irregularities and probably ordering a re-election)
2. The IRGC switch sides (forcing a re-election or deposing Khamenei)
3. The regime waits for protests to die down, gets rid of reformists (students and rival elites) when no one is watching

The latter is much more likely, in my view, because Khamanei, if he’s still in charge, is tied to the decision he’s already announced. Backing down could encourage the protesters. If he’s not in charge, and AN’s faction has taken over, then he won’t back down either, because he isn’t allowed to. The IRGC won’t switch sides, because AN represents their interests. That’s why he’s in power. If enough of a critical mass of support develops for the opposition, then the IRGC, the mullahs, and indeed anyone who wants to back the winning horse, could switch sides. But sufficient momentum is needed to break from this equilibrium. After all, the regime has been in power for three decades for a reason.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Guardian live blog:

2.40pm:
The numbers at today's rally are hard to gauge, but our correspondent Saeed Kamali Dehghan, reckons there could be as many as one million people there.

I just spoke to him on a fairly good phone line from Tehran, and I managed to record most of the conversation in the audio below (it occasionally breaks up).

He said the demonstration is bigger than Monday's rally. Many are wearing black and carrying photos of those who died. Some are carry placards calling for a new election not a recount.

Saeed pointed out that the rally has taken in place in South Tehran where Ahmadinejad claimed to have had a lot of support.
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crackerjack

Well-known member
polystyle desu said:
As noted in previous posts from last night - this situation has moved beyond whether it's a twitter revolution or so on, it's an internal power struggle isn't it .
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Yeah, but one that quite possibly goes way beyond what any of the major players actually want. I imagine there's a gigantic gulf between many of the demonstrators and platform of those they're actually demonstrating for. If they get a Mousavi win and a marginally more liberal domestic policy, how happy are they gonna be? (though of course this is pure supposition)
 
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polystyle

Well-known member
crackerjack said:
Yeah, but one that quite possibly goes way beyond what any of the major players actually want. I imagine there's a gigantic gulf between many of the demonstrators and platform of those they're actually demonstrating for. If they get a Mousavi win and a marginally more liberal domestic policy, how happy are they gonna be? (though of course this is pure supposition)
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Agreed - this is now into 'careful what you wish for ' territory it seems - from afar, mind.
The surprise over the size of the election backlash has got all parties scrambling and pulling in their own directions.
Obv. that happens to a certain extant- cracks appear at the top.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
But a process whereby the government is held accountable to the people, even in the limited sense of a Mousavi victory in a field where the majority of candidates where excluded, is an improvement on the discounting of the popular vote by the regime. It's still a victory for liberalism in the broadest sense, even if Mousavi is not a liberal per se.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
12938119.jpg
 
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polystyle

Well-known member
vimothy said:
But a process whereby the government is held accountable to the people, even in the limited sense of a Mousavi victory in a field where the majority of candidates where excluded, is an improvement on the discounting of the popular vote by the regime. It's still a victory for liberalism in the broadest sense, even if Mousavi is not a liberal per se.
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Agreed.
My point only being that when power fracture among the top - who knows how far the splits will go or can go down into the 'trunk' or core of that power ...
imo , it's breaking right now, today as this next protest is on the street.
 
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polystyle

Well-known member
vimothy said:
Iranian state press (!) reports clerics to hold opposition rally in Tehran.
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There you go - that's what I have been on about since last night ...
Rather large development for the old guys.

Meanwhile in another part of town ...
Added : from FB :
Christiane Amanpour The Islamic republic in Iran is brutally torturing students arrested in the uprising in the basement of the Interior Ministry building in Tehran.Among them are students arrested during the midnight raid on Monday on the dormitory of the University of Tehran. They were transferred directly to the basement of the Interior Ministry building where they were subjected to brutal physical and psychological torture and rape
about an hour ago · Comment · Like
42 people like this.
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padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
re: Twitter & that

scottdisco said:
"We're not silencing different povs, just trolls and spammers spreading misinformation."
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yeah - who's deciding which is which? that's all I'm saying

scottdisco said:
am sure a lot of people putting up proxy servers might not have been able to find Iran on a map two weeks ago and in helping creating space they are doing something helpful.
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road to hell, good intentions - the unspoken & more important part being that most of those intentions are clueless. what happens when there's a situation where the "right side" to be on isn't so clear?

four_five_one said:
...but it seems that the cause and the effect are being reversed in the picture painted by the media...by jeopardizing oneself by physically standing on streets
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that's exactly what I've been trying to say - Twitter etc. is impotent w/o 1) widespread political will/discontent & 2) large #s of people willing to place themselves in physical danger. & that discontent, well it may be facilitated & exacerbated by media, is dependent on real things - economy, oil prices, wars, personal freedoms, etc. *EDIT* this is what I meant by "Twitter doesn't create anything that doesn't already exist" - an idea which I didn't put across very clearly, admittedly
 
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padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
vimothy said:
Who's to say that this isn't still going to happen? I'd wait until foreign media coverage died off, until public opinion started to turn in Iran, and then do bloody murder. To do so in the open would be counterproductive.
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yep. my point was - why would you want to massacre protesters (or order such massacres) while "the world is watching".

vimothy said:
3. The regime waits for protests to die down, gets rid of reformists (students and rival elites) when no one is watching.

If enough of a critical mass of support develops for the opposition, then the IRGC, the mullahs, and indeed anyone who wants to back the winning horse, could switch sides. But sufficient momentum is needed to break from this equilibrium. After all, the regime has been in power for three decades for a reason.
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that's a fine bit of analytic work Vim.

my thinking - time is on the side of the regime. how long can Iranians on the street keep this up? sorry to state the obv but it's tremendously disruptive to daily life. people will have to back to their jobs, look after their kids, etc*. also - & unfortunately - this can only stay in the global spotlight for so long. something will take its place. Austin the good-hearted techie will go back to being IT director at his startup in SF or whatever - that's what happens when people aren't deeply committed to something (tho there are always a few long-term converts).

meanwhile the regime (whoever it is/winds up being) has no time limit. or, maybe it does, but not in the same way.

something popular, broad-based, spontaneous like this - it has to break through very quickly or it's going to inevitably fizzle out. not to say that the same bad feelings won't still be boiling under - & they could well flare up again - but for the moment that tremendous feeling will ebb. the powerful always have time on their side - except in that initial moment of rupture

*anecdote about this - at the WTO in Cancun in 2003 the local campesinos - who were like the most militant ppl I saw there (aside from the Korean unionists) were bused in for one day only b/c it was the middle of harvest season
 
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C

crackerjack

Well-known member
vimothy said:
BTW, Galloway hosts a show on that channel (Press TV).
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Galloway has already made his position plain in his Daily Record column. Can't be arsed finding it, but you won't be surprised to hear that a man with an avaricious rep and a liking for dictators has sided with his paymasters at Iranian state TV, aka Press TV.

edit: in an ideal world Iran will have a successful democratic revolution and GG will be extradited - is 'general cuntishness' a criminal offence?
 
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crackerjack

Well-known member
vimothy said:
Is Galloway an SWPer?

(My knowledge of the ins and outs of the UK hard left sorely lacking, obv).
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No, he's a Stalinist. He allied with the SWP to form Respect, but as it gradually became obv. that Respect was a Muslim party rather than a socialist one, he forced them out (quite literally telling them "go on, fuck off" at the pivotal meeting). Think SWP and Respect are now completely divorced.
 
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