Since it's been a while since we had an Israel/Palestine thread...

[padraig (u.s.)]

that's also why, I suspect, Hezbollah has been doing just enough to keep up appearances and satisfy honor but avoiding serious provocations, and why it will keep doing that. 2006 was a tremendous victory bc Hezbollah demonstrated it could make the cost too high for the Israelis to pay, but this is a different game. Presumably the last thing the IDF wants is another front, but if it happens the gloves could be well and truly off. Nasrallah is sharp (and Lebanon is a mess rn, they have their own problems). maybe I'll be eating those words in a week, but it seems like a fight no one wants to start.

 

[version]

Is Hamas' attack as serious a symbolic blow as has been made out? All the talk of this being Israel's 9/11 brings to mind Baudrillard's claim the Americans had no equivalent symbolic response to the towers being brought down, but this situation seems quite different. The Israelis have a concrete goal they can achieve through obliterating Palestine in a way the Americans didn't when they were compelled to respond to the attack on the WTC.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Is Hamas' attack as serious a symbolic blow as has been made out?

absolutely, yes

the worst terrorist attack in Israeli history, the worst security failure in Israeli history, by an enormous margin

they did it on the anniversary of 1973, the previous worst security failure in Israeli history, a milestone that wrought huge changes in Israeli society

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

it's different in some ways from 9/11 of course, but in that way it is a good comparison

and even tho the Israelis can achieve something concrete - obliterating Hamas - in another way they can't

bc they can't obliterate the idea of Palestinian liberation

the issue w/responding to WTC was that AQ or more broadly militant Islamism didn't have reciprocal physical symbols to take out

in the same way, you can flatten Gaza and kill a lot of people, but it won't eliminate the root causes

this was seen time and again in 20th C national liberation struggles

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

and one other thing I've been thinking about is Mohammed Deif. almost his entire family has been killed in airstrikes, he's living down in these tunnels. he's been fighting the Israelis his entire adult life. it has to give you a certain perspective on the world. this is pure speculation, but maybe someone in that situation is prone to inviting a Götterdämmerung. maybe you just have to throw rationality out to some extent when thinking about motives.

 

[version]

the issue w/responding to WTC was that AQ or more broadly militant Islamism didn't have reciprocal physical symbols to take out

That, and there was no equivalent to the puncturing of the American sense of security.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

btw in related news here in Chicago, a 71-year old man in the suburbs stabbed a 6-year old Palestinian boy to death and critically wounded his mother while shouting "all you Muslims need to die", so good work all the RW shitheels on social media etc

Man targeted 6-year-old boy, mom in deadly Plainfield stabbing because they are Muslim: detectives

A man stabbed a child to death and critically injured a woman in the southern suburbs on Saturday morning because they are Muslim, the Will County Sheriff's Office said on Sunday.

abc7chicago.com

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

That, and there was no equivalent to the puncturing of the American sense of security.

no it absolutely punctured the Israeli sense of security

attacks have always been a fact of Israeli life but at a manageable level. after all people felt safe enough living by the border, having a music festival within walking distance of the border. rocket attacks yes, but no one expected to be murdered en masse in their homes. this is the exact the thing the attack destroyed, the idea that Israel can simultaneously have indefinite occupation and a manageable level of violence - that was, ironically, exactly why Netanyahu sought to prop up Hamas. that's what the guy in the interview Danny linked kept referring to as "the new paradigm". it's an open question to what degree that can be restored.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

the difference is that there was no existential threat to America but we freaked out and invented one and our policymakers made numerous very terrible decisions based on that idea

there is an existential threat to Israel, but it's complicated bc it's partly self-inflicted and even tho Hamas's stated goal is wipe Israel out they're clearly not capable of actually doing that, so it's a weird situation where Israel is willing to spend a ton of blood + treasure to improve its security by annihilating or severely damaging Hamas but unwilling to address the underlying causes of that existential threat

 

[version]

no it absolutely punctured the Israeli sense of security

I wasn't talking about Israel, I was talking in terms of America's response to 9/11. The US bombing and invading Iraq and Afghanistan was something everyone was aware they were capable of. There was no equivalent to flying a couple of planes into New York and Americans suddenly realising people could get at them too.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

ah I see. in that case, yes. there's no reciprocal shock that can be achieved.

that's just the nature of terrorism and/or asymmetric warfare tho?

i.e. there was no way for the U.S. to reciprocate the shock of the Tet Offensive

 

[version]

Yeah, that's why I was wondering whether the situations were comparable in the first place. The attack on the WTC seems much more "out of the blue" than Hamas attacking Israel, given what you mentioned about attacks being a fact of Israeli life and the wars that have gone on in the past.

I suppose you could mention the 1993 WTC bombing and 9/11 not having been the first attempt, but that's still not equivalent to Israel - Palestine.

There are clearly enough similarities to make it a useful comparison though, so I think it's pointless me pursuing this particular line of thought.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Anyone know if any more evidence has come to light above Iran's (alleged) involvement?

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Yeah, that's why I was wondering whether the situations were comparable in the first place. The attack on the WTC seems much more "out of the blue" than Hamas attacking Israel, given what you mentioned about attacks being a fact of Israeli life and the wars that have gone on in the past.

it really is tho. maybe I'm failing to communicate the scale and shock here.

the previous worst attack in Israeli history was I believe the Coastal Road massacre, which was 38 deaths, all on a single hijacked bus

this is over 1200 people, another 150+ abducted. never in 75 years, since the 1948 War, have Palestinian militants taken over entire Israeli settlements. And even then really there was nothing like this. Kfar Etzion, Israel's Alamo, was a defended kibbutz overrun by a military attack.

of course Hamas, and PIJ and PFLP and Hezbollah and whoever else, have always been able to attack Israel. that they could pull something off on this scale was inconceivable. In a way it's a greater failure than 9/11, bc Israelis think about security all the time, whereas most Americans outside the security apparatuses don't unless a major incident breaks into mass consciousness.

It is absolutely Israel's 9/11, crossed with the shock of 1973. And even in 73 they knew what was coming, they just underestimated how soon and how much (the main similarity there is complacency brought on by victory).

 

[version]

it really is tho. maybe I'm failing to communicate the scale and shock here.

the previous worst attack in Israeli history was I believe the Coastal Road massacre, which was 38 deaths, all on a single hijacked bus

this is over 1200 people, another 150+ abducted. never in 75 years, since the 1948 War, have Palestinians taken over entire Israeli settlements. And even then really there was nothing like this.

of course Hamas, and PIJ and PFLP and Hezbollah and whoever else, have always been able to attack Israel. that they could pull something off on this scale was inconceivable. In a way it's a greater failure than 9/11, bc Israelis think about security all the time, whereas most Americans outside the security apparatuses don't unless a major incident breaks into mass consciousness.

It is absolutely Israel's 9/11

Yeah, I'd edited my post just before you posted this saying,

"There are clearly enough similarities to make it a useful comparison though, so I think it's pointless me pursuing this particular line of thought."

I was getting bogged down in aimless pontificating.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Anyone know if any more evidence has come to light above Iran's (alleged) involvement?

Every American and Israeli official I've seen has been careful to note that there's no evidence of direct involvement

that's also what Hamas leaders themselves have said. Iranian security ppl knew a major operation was coming, but not what or any of the details.

and it make sense, both for operational security and deniability reasons. so probably true.

complicit as a major backer but not directly responsible in a casus belli way

 

[WashYourHands]

Partner is Jewish, grim as fuck times and stayed out of the discussion as such because of the cats cradle of horror

If hostages start getting executed and dumped it will get worse. Israel has a month to do what it pleases. No-one will intervene. No ethical framework will be adhered to. Any/all protests will be ignored. Gaza could be levelled and its land then more fully integrated into Israeli society. What would foreign govt’s do? Embargo the state itself? Unlikely

Conversely, if Hamas invokes further sickening overreaction from Israel which sustains itself beyond a certain threshold, international opinion may shift. Taking the landlord’s family hostage isn’t ethical but most sane people are aware of ‘living’ conditions in Gaza and the West Bank - monstrous

A massive overreaction from Israel must have entered Hamas thinking, the optics particularly of aerial bombardment, residential blocks collapsing from munition impacts and haemorrhaging hospitals all deliver the message of an unliveable environment. Secular nationalists in BN’s war cabinet barking for blood could tip the balance of opinion in such a direction by their sheer obstinacy and/or hate too

 

[Mr. Tea]

If there's any truth to these reports that Egypt warned Israel but was ignored - and in fact even if there isn't, because these things don't depend on truth, but on belief - then I wonder if a 9/11 Truther-type movement will arise, blaming the Israeli government for deliberately allowing this to happen.

But then, maybe there's something in this? There's precious little I'd put past the present Israeli government, and it chimes with the claims made by the Egyptian intel services that the Americans have backed up.

 

[droid]

It flies in the face of over 60 years of Israeli policy, which is to neutralise, contain, and slowly annex. A policy that has been wildly successful and has reached fruition in the last decade. Why would they risk all that?

 

[Mr. Tea]

It flies in the face of over 60 years of Israeli policy, which is to neutralise, contain, and slowly annex. A policy that has been wildly successful and has reached fruition in the last decade. Why would they risk all that?

I dunno. I'm not saying it's definitely true or anything - it could just be good old-fashioned hubris and incompetence. But perhaps this is not your grandfather's Israeli government, so to speak.