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Benford's Law anomalies in the 2009 Iranian presidential election - Boudewijn F. Roukema
Rafsanjani vs. Khamenei?
Posted Today, 01:57 PM | Report #279
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/.../iran-uprising
11am this morning
Isfahan yesterday:
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Lenin's Tomb is hilarious.
He also pointedly satirises Orientalist assumptions of the Reading-Lolita-in-Tehran variety
It's safe to say that Mousavi, no instinctive reformer, has become a default figurehead for something far larger, and fundamental. This is already bigger than 1999, and when it dies down, the aftershocks will be profound
This is about reshaping the country in a particular image. It can broadly be defined as conservative, Islamic and autocratic. Its footsoldiers are the seemingly pervasive pious poor who populate the Iranian countryside, inherently conservative and largely neglected. They are juxtaposed against a diffident and socially disconnected north Tehran elite. It is a nice dichotomy, and it makes for an easy explanation, but it doesn't bear serious scrutiny. Iran for example, is now overwhelmingly urban (70:30), which means that elections are fought and won in the cities. Moreover, many prominent reformists do not reside in north Tehran, in stark contrast to their political opponents. But it is also a fact that the last landslide elections were won by a reformist, Mohammad Khatami, who, much to the chagrin of Ahmadinejad and his supporters, has remained a formidable and highly popular figure to this day. In other words, the "pious poor" are not the natural and automatic constituents of the hardline conservatives.
This myth of the conservative silent majority is one that we are all meant to swallow. But it has proved a difficult fact to fully digest in light of Khatami's persistent popularity. So now we have an election, with an exceptionally high turnout, which has finally provided Ahmadinejad with more "votes" than Khatami ever achieved. With this apparent mandate Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader will try to move quickly to consolidate their position. All will apparently be normal, while behind the scenes opponents will be arrested and/or intimidated into submission. This is, after all, about domestic hegemony.
The trouble is that the legitimacy they crave has evaded them. Far from being a fait accompli, they face a crisis of authority entirely of their own invention. The people being beaten on the streets are not members of the "north Tehran elite" who happen to be bored. People are angry; and people feel humiliated by a government and establishment that appear to have taken their submission for granted. This is a dangerous game to play, to raise expectations and to dash them with such reckless abandon. The protests are broader – socially and geographically – than they have been since the revolution, but perhaps more important, they now include disaffected members of the revolutionary elite. If these wounds are not healed quickly and judiciously, they may not heal at all.
2.15pm:
Football update from Robert Tait: The green armband wearing members of Iran's national team appear to have been forced to remove their pro-Mousavi emblems. The team emerged for the second half of the match against South Korea with none of its members wearing the symbols.
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, putting Iran's qualification for the World Cup in doubt.
Reading some of the comments yesterday, the line seemed to be that AN is a populist Marxist with good anti-Zionist credentials, also unpopular with the sickening liberal pansies, and Mousavi is a neo-liberal, which seems to be the worst thing that anyone can be over at Lenin's Tomb.
(AN=Ahmadinejad?)
God, Lenin's Tomb is a dismal shithole. Is there even a crumb of evidence that Mousavi is a neo-liberal, other than he's found himself at the head of a movement popular with non-Trots?
Yep.
I think for the hard-of-thinking, Iranian reformist movement = neo-liberalism. Or something.
(AN=Ahmadinejad?)
God, Lenin's Tomb is a dismal shithole.
There are two forces in the world. Socialism, and capitalism. The first is good, the second is bad. All conflicts are ultimately a conflict between socialism and capitalism. They may not initially seem like it. But they are. You can tell the difference between them because, helpfully, the bad guys wear black hats, and the good guys wear white hats. Like in a cowboy movie. Now, it may not initially seem like it. But remember, comrade: there are two colors in the world: black and white. Other colours - for instance, green - are, in fact, either black or white. Green is a neo-liberal (black) illusion. Capitalism wants you to believe in green. Green is a capitalist trick. The party sees through green. To the black and white essence. Let me explain to you how this works. You see, in the beginning was capitalism, and it was acting all capitalistically, and... [continues for another ten thousand pages)