Russia Surrounded

[wg-]

The Iraqi dinar speculators continue to cry in a corner

 

[Slothrop]

One of the things that I'm finding mentally tiring about parsing this situation is the weirdly asymmetric worldview that Kremlin mouthpieces use to maintain a tone of innocent victimhood. So for instance, if some Russian troops are hanging out on the outskirts of Kyiv lobbing vacuum bombs at apartment blocks then that's just the good and natural order of things, but if some American F22s flew over the Ukraine and bombed said troops then that would be a clear and unprovoked act of aggression. Similarly with this strike on the fuel depot today, there's a sense that Russia have decided that this is a war where they attack stuff in the Ukraine, and for Ukrainians to start attacking stuff in Russia is clearly against the rules and hence unacceptable.

 

[version]

One of the things that I'm finding mentally tiring about parsing this situation is the weirdly asymmetric worldview that Kremlin mouthpieces use to maintain a tone of innocent victimhood. So for instance, if some Russian troops are hanging out on the outskirts of Kyiv lobbing vacuum bombs at apartment blocks then that's just the good and natural order of things, but if some American F22s flew over the Ukraine and bombed said troops then that would be a clear and unprovoked act of aggression. Similarly with this strike on the fuel depot today, there's a sense that Russia have decided that this is a war where they attack stuff in the Ukraine, and for Ukrainians to start attacking stuff in Russia is clearly against the rules and hence unacceptable.

Perhaps a trivial comparison, but the Tories pull the same trick when anyone stands up to them. Any criticism is labeled anti-Conservative bias and beyond the pale.

 

[wg-]

I would say that the covid vaccine scenario left a lot open, and despite personal disagreement ultimately I can't dismiss these now quite obviously surreptitiously funded proxies a right to their opinion

However the Russian scenario really does have a lot of people showing their arse really obviously and it's quite depressing tbh

 

[Slothrop]

Perhaps a trivial comparison, but the Tories pull the same trick when anyone stands up to them. Any criticism is labeled anti-Conservative bias and beyond the pale.

I often hear different stuff compared to an abusive / controlling partner - always framing stuff as the victim's fault for "provoking" them, "now look what you made me do", all that sort of stuff. And I dunno, it sometimes feels a bit pat but it does also seem to fit pretty neatly in this case.

 

[vimothy]

I think the unfortunate reality is that any kind of conceivable compromise which might end the war entails a "win" for Russia which they obviously dont deserve in any moral sense

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Ukraine's meme game is on point. This could be the first war won with memes.

Probably the first war (that people in affluent parts of the world care about, anyway) in the era of modern meme mass-culture, in which memes are playing a significant role, but memes are just the latest iteration - or part of the latest iteration, anyway - of information warfare, which is as old as warfare itself, i.e. the Trojan Horse, "all war is based on deception", etc

Having said that, obviously Ukraine (and its allies) have comprehensively won the information war, to an astounding degree, which is especially impressive considering that that was Russia's calling card for such a long time (and historically). Certainly 2014 was nothing like this. Stating the obvious, hard not to think that the enormous controversy over the 2016 election, societal focus on disinformation throughout the pandemic (even if that's not Russia-specific), and possibly Putin et al simply losing the plot, has blunted that historical strength for Russia.

(standard caveat that yes, Russia is in the wrong, just noting it's surprising how Ukraine has managed to do something that no other Russian opponent has in the age of Putin - Americans at at least certainly gave essentially zero fucks in 2014, or Georgia 2008, or Chechnya, etc)

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

And, everyone's official spokespeople voice an asymmetric worldview - admittedly the Kremlin's are more (significantly more, depending on the comparison) egregious, but that's what spokespeople do - what government ever has been like "you know what, yeah, we're equally in the wrong and our soldiers deserved to get shot"?

it feels almost impossible to make even mild qualifiers like that these days w/o people yelling about whataboutism etc, but it's also like, come on.

(same caveat, not apologism for Kremlin doublespeak or etc, it sucks, but it's not yunno unique)

 

[sufi]

£7 for 72 weetabix rn

 

[sufi]

I often hear different stuff compared to an abusive / controlling partner - always framing stuff as the victim's fault for "provoking" them, "now look what you made me do", all that sort of stuff. And I dunno, it sometimes feels a bit pat but it does also seem to fit pretty neatly in this case.

Perhaps a trivial comparison, but the Tories pull the same trick when anyone stands up to them. Any criticism is labeled anti-Conservative bias and beyond the pale.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

One of the things that I'm finding mentally tiring about parsing this situation is the weirdly asymmetric worldview that Kremlin mouthpieces use to maintain a tone of innocent victimhood. So for instance, if some Russian troops are hanging out on the outskirts of Kyiv lobbing vacuum bombs at apartment blocks then that's just the good and natural order of things, but if some American F22s flew over the Ukraine and bombed said troops then that would be a clear and unprovoked act of aggression. Similarly with this strike on the fuel depot today, there's a sense that Russia have decided that this is a war where they attack stuff in the Ukraine, and for Ukrainians to start attacking stuff in Russia is clearly against the rules and hence unacceptable.

Inside job by Russia to justify imminent shock and awe attack for which apparently retreating troops are clearing the scene

 

[Mr. Tea]

I often hear different stuff compared to an abusive / controlling partner - always framing stuff as the victim's fault for "provoking" them, "now look what you made me do", all that sort of stuff. And I dunno, it sometimes feels a bit pat but it does also seem to fit pretty neatly in this case.

I agree exactly, and the battered wife thing had occurred to me too, with regards to some of the apologetics I've seen in the last month.

People who think they're right on coming out with "don't poke the bear" rhetoric, literally quoting Nigel Farage word for word.

 

[Mr. Tea]

And what

 

[toko]

perverse after effect of sanctions: demand for roubles goes down due to sanctions and up due to second order after effects of sanctions on commodity prices, netting out at zero or thereabouts

didnt they also jack up interest rates? also the signaling that russia will only accept roubles for energy ccould be another cause besides just sanctions.

 

[toko]

regardless thats one hell of a bounce. idk why no one seems to be talking about it.

 

[vimothy]

tbf I think the capital controls have played a big part in stabilising the value of the rouble. theres a good twitter thread about the effect of forcing exporters to sell their fx to the central bank here:

 

[Mr. Tea]

There's more to having a healthy economy than just a currency that's trading stably against other currencies though, isn't there?

 

[vimothy]

absolutely

 

[vimothy]

but crashing the rouble as a mechanism for ending the war does not seem to be playing out in the way that ppl may have imagined

 

[toko]

as Russians pull out of Kyiv area pictures and reports of straight up execution of civilians with hands tied/mass graves are coming out. I don't want to post the pictures but its brutal as hell. i don't think Ukraine will concede an inch to Putin.