Russia Surrounded

vimothy

vimothy

yurp
germaphobian said:
I can only keep repeating my Eastern Euro spiel that English really, really do underestimate the Russian threat. I mean, I get it in a way, since England has been blessed with geographical location it has and it hasn't come under much outside pressure in a long, long time, but those stated facts have lead to all kinds of delusions.
Ok, maybe it's better to put it this way - if Putin's stratagem works, I can easily imagine Russian nukes raining down on London; some of my English friends have thought me crazy for saying that, but when you go through the present situation step by step, when you consider final Russian ambitions, it does make complete sense.
I mean, again, I get it why on a purly empirical level people don't see it in that light, because you have to go bit mad to consider that, but that's essentially the reality of the situation.
Peter Zeihan, who's been very far sighted when it comes to this particular conflict, even said that Russian nukes obliterating major US cities is not a far-off possibility.
I find this Western Euoropean blidness and glibness concerning, because, to press a bit on where it hurts, history won't be decided by analyzing rave records and movies, that's the kind of luxury what you get after oceans of blood been spilled.
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why isnt the uk more invested in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is the same question as why isnt russia more invested in the Scotland-England crisis
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
vimothy said:
why isnt the uk more invested in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is the same question as why isnt russia more invested in the Scotland-England crisis
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So... England has threatened Russia with thermonuclear annihilation if it doesn't stop supplying arms to Scotland - have I got that right?
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
vimothy said:
tbf, any potential Scotland-England crisis is more relevant to Russia's security interests than a Russia-Ukraine crisis is to our's, given the proximity of the UK's nuclear port in Scotland to the GIUK Gap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap
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That's a good point, but it's worth bearing in mind that the SNP seems to have had its time in the sun. A yellow seat turned red in a by-election last October, and if the polls are anything to go by, they may even come second to Labour in the next general election.

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
I've become quite pessimistic about the whole situ, tbh. can we avoid all out war with russia, even in the event of some kind of negotiated peace over Ukraine
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
russia stands at a serious advantage to Europe in geopolitical terms - if it wants to roll into the baltics, could we stop it? if it doesnt, what kind of arrangement are we going back to wrt our energy requirements?
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
vimothy said:
russia stands at a serious advantage to Europe in geopolitical terms - if it wants to roll into the baltics, could we stop it?
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Well yes, obviously. We're two years into a war that Putin thought would end with Kyiv's capitulation in three days, and he doesn't actually control that much more territory than he did before the invasion began. His losses have been appalling and while Ukraine has had abundant material support, remember that only Ukrainians have been doing the actual fighting. If it came to a direct conflict between NATO forces and Russia, Russia is obviously toast.

Which ironically is part of what makes the conflict so dangerous, because then threats of nuclear weapons and the possibility that he might actually use them become Putin's only military ace in the hole.

vimothy said:
if it doesnt, what kind of arrangement are we going back to wrt our energy requirements?
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European, and especially German, reliance on Russian gas unfortunately is his other ace in the hole, albeit an economic, rather than military one.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Anyway, Russia is soon to be a bit more surrounded, as Hungary has finally signalled that it's going to consent to Sweden joining NATO.
 
T

thirdform

pass the sick bucket
germaphobian said:
I see myself more as a 'callers voice in the desert' when it comes to these things; if there's something that's gonna undermine us it will be Western naivety concerning all things Russian.
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You have tied yourself to the West, itself a post-1945 cold war construct that is rapidly disintegrating. Unfortunately you will reap what you sow.

As far as I can understand it, you are Latvian, and re: Bosnia and Chechnya, your country has been more concerned with following the nato strategy of implicit Russian toleration for euro-American imperial aims. If you keep relying on the West for interests they don't share with you, then, well... I should add that we in Turkey are in a similar situation, in that we were absorbed into the post-1945 western alliance, but are struggling to break away from it. Our ruling class has somewhat noticed this, which is why they treading an extremely diplomatic approach. If countries want to be friendly to Ankara, then Ankara will make inroads. Otherwise, it simply is not interested in being aggressive and forthright, in the diplomatic arena that is.

Even Tayyıp can't save you at this rate, let alone save himself.

And what's even more tragic for you guys is that you're probably going to be dragged behind the EU's rising anti-americanism, and you'll be going to eventual war with your once allies.

Forgive me for being cantankerous, but you aren't nearly mad enough.

and no, before tea goes at me, I'm not attributing blame to anyone. This is just capitalism.

The war between russia and Ukraine will probably keep rolling on, just like it is in Syria. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

the EU has no interest in antagonising russia excessively, whereas NATO is basically outliving its usefulness. Germany gambled and they are losing. It's not just Putin, Scholz and crew wanted a speedy end to the Ukraine war. Which is why Germanys military budget has been swelling over all other economic factors in the country. Important here is the abolition of tax relief on Diesel.
 
T

thirdform

pass the sick bucket
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Mr. Tea said:
Well yes, obviously. We're two years into a war that Putin thought would end with Kyiv's capitulation in three days, and he doesn't actually control that much more territory than he did before the invasion began. His losses have been appalling and while Ukraine has had abundant material support, remember that only Ukrainians have been doing the actual fighting. If it came to a direct conflict between NATO forces and Russia, Russia is obviously toast.
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but then the question is what constitutes nato forces - suppose america pulls back, what then?
 
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