Election 2020

IdleRich

IdleRich
It’ll end in the courts and Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s death makes things even tougher in terms of getting rid of Trump
In a nutshell - yep.
This is tragic in so many ways. This scrabbling around and manoeuvring straight after her death is so shameless and undignified.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
In a nutshell - yep.
This is tragic in so many ways. This scrabbling around and manoeuvring straight after her death is so shameless and undignified.
And transparent. The gloves are totally off now, there is no pretence of doing the right thing or following conventions or even rules. It feels as though the stakes are so high, the Republicans are in a situation where they could lose the presidency, be destroyed in the senate and fall further behind in the house with the potential corollary that their massive corruption is exposed leading to a swathe of arrests and enormous reputational damage, annihilating their chances of being elected again in the foreseeable future.
Or... they could cheat and win the election in which case they will stuff the courts and the DOJ with lackeys and lickspittles... the rule of law and democracy will be all but dead, Trump will try and get a third term... in short the US will be fucked.
And both parties are fully aware of this and would happily murder their own grannies to get the result they want - with the Republicans inevitably prepared to sink even lower...
 

Leo

Well-known member
such a sad situation, a great mind and role model. I remember people saying she should have retired during Obama's first term when Dems held the senate and could have pushed through a nominee.

if trump loses, there's still two months of a lame ducks session to push through a new justice, so there's a question of whether McDonnell will push for the confirmation before the November election, which could endanger some GOP senate candidates. there are at least four GOP senators in very tight races in non-red states, there's always the risk they could lose potential support from independent voters if they push for a replacement now.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Was thinking it would be a lot easier to rhyme with Mitch... otherwise it seems likely you'll be stuck with assonance.
 

Leo

Well-known member
Around $100 million in donations have come in to Democratic senatorial candidates since RBG's death, could make a real difference. With only around 50 days left, the Biden campaign coffers have ballooned to $460+ million and they are outspending Trump in most swing states.

As with love, money doesn't buy political victories but it sure helps.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
People seem very motivated by her death. One thing I keep seeing but I'm not totally sure I understand is - I guess - a threat of some kind with Dems saying that if Trump does nominate and appoint a new judge to SC before the election, then the new regime (assuming it's Biden) could retaliate by increasing the total number of judges and making all the new ones Dems.
I suppose the rationale being that this is something that could be done within the constitution but which would be unconventional and (for want of a better word) unsporting - however the claim will be that is justified (or even necessitated) by Republicans breaking the rule they made up four years ago for this situation.
My questions about this are
1. Have I understood that correctly?
2. If so, what would the Dems need to be able to do that? Presidency and control of both houses or what?
3. If I have understood, and, supposing they are in a position to do that after the election, how likely would they be to do it?
 

luka

Well-known member
Staff member
Who cares I want to see America go dark side just for entertainment value tbh. Let's see how fucked it can get
 

Leo

Well-known member
you're correct: the constitution doesn't specify or restrict the number of Supreme Court justices, and in fact the number has increased and decreased over the years (but hasn't changes for many years). I believe all it would take is a senate vote and presidential signature,.

chuck Schumer said all options are on the table if the GOP pushes a vote on RBG's replacement before the election (or after in the event of a Biden win and Dem takeover of the senate). how likely? no way to tell, the dems have a reputation for bungling things.
 

WashYourHands

Well-known member
If Biden was to win, i could see South African style rebalancing taking place, but as a veneer, a surface edifice and that's not enough to purge the country of its unstable foundations.

America has become an ugly, ugly freak show to the outside world, compounded by the outside world not grasping its unique cultural blend and make-up.

The bookmakers have to pay out regardless and the odds are close across most accounts

 

WashYourHands

Well-known member
It's a sample of bookmakers and their odds. Biden's at 4/5 (odds on, but v narrow, see 5/6), while Trump's 11/10 and 1/1 (narrow miss and evens).

In other words, they're hedging their bets because it's too close to call. That factors in every variable a bookmaker's algorithm play-book can conjure, like electoral fraud, disputed outcomes, but they only have to provide an equation for each outcome and reduce their losses.

Bookmakers are reasonable guides for where the money is headed, except when it's close like this election. Evens like Trump's betting position is pretty rare too. I lost $150 in AC though, so bit of an amateur take.
 
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